Voter Turnout in the 2016 Election and the Impact of State Election Policies jj The PowerPoint and a link to the recording of the webinar will be distributed in a follow up email

Who we are Nonprofit VOTE: Nonpartisan resources and trainings for the nonprofit sector U.S. Elections Project: Timely and accurate election statistics, reports, and other information on the United States electoral system. (The inventor of VEP) NALEO Education Fund: Facilitates Latino participation in American politics from voting and citizenship to public service.

Today’s presenters Who Michael McDonald Director, US Elections Project & Assoc Professor, Political Science University of Florida Dorian Caal Director of Civic Engagement Research at NALEO Educational Fund Brian Miller Executive Director, Nonprofit VOTE Who

Today’s agenda National Turnout & State Rankings Turnout Impact of Same Day Voter Registration and Electoral Competition A Look at the Latino Vote State Election Policies: Laboratories of Democracy Discussion Agenda

MEASURING VOTER TURNOUT # OF TOTAL BALLOTS COUNTED _____________________________ VOTING ELIGIBLE POPULATION WHAT IS VEP

NATIONAL TURNOUT 1972 - 2016 139 Million or 60.2% of 231 million eligible voters 3rd highest since 18 year olds gained the vote.

state turnout rankings

Highest and lowest states Top Rank: SDR, Battleground, Competition Bottom Rank: 4 week VR cut-offs, Non-battleground

Same day voter registration Seven points turnout advantage in 2016 Consistent even as the # of SDR states has grown 6 7 7 10 11 15

Battleground states 14 battleground states where election decided in 2016 5-8 point turnout advantage over last five elections

Campaign money and visits Almost all campaign visits and spending in BG states 57% visits and 71% spending in 4 states: FL, NC, PA, OH

Voter turnout & margin of victory

Competition in U.S. house races?? Before Election: 37 of 435 seen competitive After Election: 33 were within 10 points Cook Political Report

The Latino Vote March 23, 2017

NALEO EDUCATIONAL FUND ESTIMATE At least 16.2 million Latinos were registered to vote for Election 2016

Won’t have U.S. census estimate until sometime in 2017 Latino Turnout NALEO Education Fund was estimating more than 13.1 million Latinos would vote in the Election 2016 Won’t have U.S. census estimate until sometime in 2017 However, early analysis suggest a record number of Latinos voted in most states (it is too early to know whether Latino turnout percent of Latino eligible topped 2008 or 2012)

Latino Turnout – Arizona, Nevada & California Estimates suggest more than 420,000 Latinos voted in Arizona with other estimates suggesting turnout as high as 550,000; either estimate would be higher than the 400,000 the Census estimated in 2012 More than 236,000 Latinos are estimated to have voted in Nevada in 2016 compared to 157,000 in 2012 3,349,000 million Latinos are estimated to have voted in California compared to 3,157,000 in 2012

Latino Early Vote * Estimate uses cumulative data 0 days before election and race data from Catalist

Latino Early Vote * Estimate uses cumulative data 0 days before election and race data from Catalist

Latino Mobilization Many Non-partisan Latino organizations conducted GOTV and Voter Registration efforts NALEO Educational Fund carried out multiple experiments to understand what works and what might not Analysis suggest long term youth engagement has a positive effect on turnout

Thank you. Dorian Caal Director of Civic Engagement Research dcaal@naleo.org www.naleo.org

Watching from the sidelines 147 million in voters in 36 non-battleground states 75% of Latino and 81% of AAPI voters

NONPROFITS CONTACT VOTERS While less than half of Latino/AAPI voters contacted… One-third were contacted by community organizations Phoenix High School on NVRD Source: Latino Decisions

1. Voter registration modernization SDR - http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/same-day-registration.aspx AVR = https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/automatic-voter-registration SDR in 17 states and DC, and AVR in 7 states and DC

2. Voting access Receive Ballot at Home- Drop Off anytime – 4 states Early Voting Weekend and Evenings – 20+ States http://washingtonmonthly.com/2016/01/11/why-everyone-should-vote-by-mail/ http://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/janfeb-2016/vote-from-home-save-your-country/

3. Competition and choice End the Gerrymander– 3 States NP Comm, 5 BP Comm National Popular Vote – 11 States Ranked Choice Voting – 1 statewide + 7 other states NCSL - http://www.ncsl.org/research/redistricting.aspx Brennan Center - https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/redistricting National Popular Vote - http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/ Fair Vote - http://www.fairvote.org/rcv#rcvbenefits

4. The right to vote Restore Voting Rights Ex Offenders - 15 States End Restrictive Laws – 35+ States have done so 27% http://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/felony-disenfranchisement-a-primer/ http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-id.aspx 12%

Questions

www.electproject.org ● @ElectProject info@nonprofitvote.org 617.357.VOTE (8683) www.nonprofitvote.org Nonprofit VOTE Michael McDonald University of Florida www.electproject.org ● @ElectProject 30