Polling, Demographics, and Greying Oh My… The Make-up of America

Problems with Polling What were some of the consistent problems you found with your polling? Take about five minutes and find a poll close to your topic online, how did your results match with the scientific polls you found? What are the differences you see? Why do you think this is the case? What bias could have played into this? What is a way for professional statisticians to combat these issues?

Nate Silver on Polling

Terms to Know Public Opinion Demography Census Distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues Demography Science of population change Census Required every 10 years by the Constitution Necessary for understanding population change Reapportionment – reallocating seats in the House after each census

Hidden Socialization Race Gender Geographic Gender Gap – regular pattern in which women are more likely to support Democratic candidates Tend to be less conservative than men More likely to support spending on social services and oppose higher levels of military spending Geographic

The Immigrant Society United States prides itself on being a nation of immigrants Three waves of immigration NW Europeans (prior to the late 19th century) S and E Europeans (late 19th and early 20th centuries) Hispanics and Asians (early to mid 20th century)

The American Melting Pot Melting pot – mixing of cultures, ideas, and people that have changed the American nation Minority Majority – emergence of a non-Caucasian majority Political culture is an overall set of values widely shared within a society

The American Melting Pot? African Americans face a legacy of racism Hispanics are largest minority group faced w/ problem of illegal immigration Simpson-Massoli Act (1986) – requires employers document citizenship of employees Asian immigration has been driven by a new class of professional works Native Americans – indigenous and disadvantaged

The American People The Regional Shift Population shift from east to west; north to south Reapportionment – the process of reallocating seats in the House of Representatives every ten years based on the census

The American People The Graying of America Fastest growing age group is over 65 Potential drain on Social Security Pay as you go system – pay in while working and draw out as needed once you retire In 1942 – 42 workers per retiree In 2040 – 2 workers per retiree