MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 10 Climate Change Impacts: Present and Future Dr. Eugene Cordero Outline: Fingerprints of climate change Future impacts

Based on the reading, which year was the warmest on record 1985 1999 2001 2005 2006 0 of 250 :10

The fingerprints discussed in the article include Ocean layer warming Increases in CO2 Decreses in precipitation Increases frequency of tropical cyclones 0 of 250 :20

Climate Change Impacts What signals would we expect from a warmer world? What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century?

Climate Change Impacts What signals would we expect from a warmer world? Higher average temperature Higher maximum temperatures Higher minimum temperatures More precipitation Higher sea level What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century?

Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change FINGERPRINTS: Direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding Arctic and Antarctic warming

Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change FINGERPRINTS: Direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding Glaciers melting Arctic and Antarctic warming Increases in sea level

Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change HARBINGERS: Events that foreshadow the types of impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming. Earlier spring arrival Coral reef bleaching Droughts and fires

Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change HARBINGERS: Events that foreshadow the types of impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming. Spreading disease (i.e. mosquito carrying) Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population changes Coral reef bleaching Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Droughts and fires

Impacts over the last 100 years

Indicators of Climate Change Fingerprints of climate change Indicators of Climate Change That there is a link between CO2 and global temperatures is irrefutable as this diagram shows, but exact details of the link and all the possible feedback mechanisms are not clear. The interaction of positive and negative feedback effects associated with the greenhouse effect is currently a critical issue for the scientific community.

Indicators of Climate Change Fingerprints of climate change Indicators of Climate Change Stratosphere cooling Troposphere warming That there is a link between CO2 and global temperatures is irrefutable as this diagram shows, but exact details of the link and all the possible feedback mechanisms are not clear. The interaction of positive and negative feedback effects associated with the greenhouse effect is currently a critical issue for the scientific community. Ocean warming

Temperature trends Troposphere (0 - ~ 10km) Stratosphere (10 – 50 km) Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now that seemed to be instrument error. Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere.

Temperature trends Troposphere (0 - ~ 10km) Stratosphere (10 – 50 km) Surface temperatures are warming – (Certain) Middle troposphere is also warming (Very likely) Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now that seemed to be due to instrument error. Upper atmosphere is cooling (Certain) Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere.

Fingerprints of climate change

Fingerprints of climate change Increases in water vapor

Water vapor feedback Recall how the water vapor feedback works Current models suggest that the water vapor feedback is responsible for about the same amount of warming as warming from increases in CO2. The importance of this feedback is still being investigated.

Water vapor feedback Recall how the water vapor feedback works Increase in temp Increase evaporation Increase in water vapor in atmosphere Water vapor is a greenhouse gas Increase in greenhouse effect Further warming (positive feedback) Current models suggest that the water vapor feedback is responsible for about the same amount of warming as warming from increases in CO2. The importance of this feedback is still being investigated.

Global mean surface temperatures have increased

The Land and Oceans have both warmed

Precipitation patterns have changed

Svalbard, Norway (79N) `

Arctic

Sea Level rise Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people due to Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter –

Sea Level rise Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter – very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity

Recent Sea Level Changes

Sea Levels have risen

Branching coral Brain coral

Increase in coral bleaching events: due to warmer ocean temperatures Branching coral Brain coral Increase in coral bleaching events: due to warmer ocean temperatures

http://www.climatehotmap.org/

Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase Projected changes during the 21st century Examples of impacts Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely) increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely) Increased mortality in old people in urban areas Heat stress on livestock Extended range of pests and diseases Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems Point the regions where the warming will be greatest

Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase Projected changes during the 21st century Examples of impacts Higher maximum temperatures; more hot days and heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very likely) Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely) more intense precipitation events over many areas (very likely) increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely) increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity, mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely) Increased mortality in old people in urban areas Damage to crops Heat stress on livestock Extended range of pests and diseases Loss of some crop/fruit Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and increased insurance costs Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems Point the regions where the warming will be greatest

Future impacts due to climate change

More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected

As a result of warming, plant species would be expected to migrate North in the Southern Hemisphere North in the Northern Hemisphere South in the Northern Hemisphere South in the Southern Hemisphere To higher altitudes To lower altitudes 1 and 6 2 and 5 38 of 66

Where would you expect to see the strongest evidence of climate change? Tropical latitudes Midlatitude deserts Midlatitude oceans High latitudes High altitude mountains 37 of 66

If ice melt was to stop even though average temperatures continue to warm, how would sea level respond Sea level would continue to rise Sea level would reach an equilibrium Sea level would decrease 38 of 66

Impacts on water and agriculture Water availability Decrease in many water scarce regions Increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions; reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics

Impacts on water and agriculture Water availability Increase in some in some water-scarce regions, Decrease in many water scarce regions Globally, fresh water become more scarce Increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions; reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics Overall impact is negative

Effect on human health Reduced winter mortality in Increased incidence of heat stress mortality Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and sub-tropics such as malaria and

Effect on human health Reduced winter mortality in mid- and high-latitudes Increased incidence of heat stress mortality Tropics and midlatitudes Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and sub-tropics such as malaria and water-borne diseases such as cholera,

Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change Impacts are worse – large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors Lower capacity to adapt Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries,

Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change Impacts are worse – already more flood and drought prone large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial and technological capacity Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most developing countries

Climate change and California Average Temperature: Winter - Summer – Coastal cities: Human health: Water resources: Agriculture:

Report Issued in 2004 Sections include:

Report Issued in 2004 Sections include: Climate projections Sea levels Extreme heat Health impacts Water resource Agriculture and vegetation

Climate change and California Average Temperature: Winter - warmer winters - snowpack declines by 70-90% by 2090 Summer – warmer summers (5-15F by 2090) Coastal cities: coastal erosion by sea level rise. Human health: Urban air pollution/heat extremes impact most vulnerable Water resources: Total water, but early runoff from Sierras costly to adapt. Agriculture: Major challenge to various crops industries.

Weather-related economic damages have increased

Movie: Hot times in Alaska

Movie: Hot times in Alaska Write a paragraph explaining why the Arctic is experiencing more rapid warming compared to the lower latitudes, and what impact this is having on the Guillemonts in this movie.

Fingerprints and Harbingers Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather Sea level rise and coastal flooding Glaciers melting Arctic and Antarctic warming Spreading disease Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population declines Coral reef bleaching Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Droughts and fires

El Niño years La Niña years The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics

Weather-related economic damages have increased

2020s 2050s 2080s

The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years El Niño years La Niña years The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics

Based on the reading, which year was the warmest on record 1985 1999 2001 2005 2006 0 of 250 :10

The fingerprints discussed in the article include Ocean layer warming Increases in CO2 Decreses in precipitation Increases frequency of tropical cyclones 20 0 of 250