Colorado River Binational Negotiations Minutes 319 and 32X Arizona Forward Tom Buschatzke Director Arizona Department of Water Resources June 14, 2017

Minute 319 Minute 319 signed on November 20, 2012 5-year agreement Establishes framework for discussion of a permanent agreement Comprehensive partnership for management of Colorado River resources Shortage/surplus Reservoir storage/salinity Water exchanges Benefit the Colorado River Delta riparian ecosystem Partnership between federal governments, Basin States, water agencies, and NGOs

2007 Interim Guidelines & Minute 319 Shortage Impacts to Lower Basin August 24-Month Study projections of January 1 Lake Mead elevations are used to determine operation of Lake Mead in upcoming year. Lake Mead Elevation (ft.) Arizona Reduction (AF) Nevada Reduction California Reduction Mexico Reduction 1,075 320,000 13,000 50,000 1,050 400,000 17,000 70,000 1,025 480,000 20,000 125,000 *In the Upper Basin, localized areas experience hydrologic shortages due to reduced runoff

Need for Drought Contingency Planning The last ten years have shown that total shortage volumes identified for the U.S. in the 2007 Interim Guidelines and for Mexico in Minute 319 do not sufficiently reduce the risk of Lake Mead falling to unhealthy levels (below 1025’) That risk was at 7-8 percent in 2007; today its double that amount or worse Lake Mead can go to dead pool in about 14 months when it falls below 1025’ - no water can move past the dam at dead pool

Protection Volume Analysis Volumes needed to absolutely protect Lake Mead’s elevations 1,025 ft. and 1,000 ft. through 2026 Hydrology Lake Mead Elevation: 1,025 ft. 1,000 ft. Maximum in any year (MAF) First Year that Maximum Occurs Average through 2026 (MAF) Maximum in any year Average through 2026 Observed 3.0 2023 0.97 1.5 0.56 Climate Change 6.0 2021 2.8 4.5 2.4 Combined 2.3 2.2

U.S. Drought Contingency Planning The States embarked on the effort in Spring 2013 Upper Basin States’ efforts focus on reservoir operations to protect Lake Powell’s power pool through weather modification, demand management, and Upper Basin reservoir operations Lower Basin States’ goal was to reduce the probabilities of Lake Mead falling below elevation 1025’ back to single digits as in 2007 There is a draft plan among Arizona, Nevada, California, and the Bureau of Reclamation that accomplishes that goal (Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan or LBDCP) The draft LBDCP doubles the reductions in Lake Mead as compared to the 2007 shortage volumes and incentivizes storage of conserved water in Lake Mead Minute 32x Scarcity Plan provisions for Mexico (the equivalent of LBDCP) are in parity and alignment with the LBDCP terms

Key Elements of Minute 32x States Perspective Extend the provisions of Minute 319 through 2026 The terms of sharing in surplus, shortage and scarcity achieve parity and alignment between the U.S. and Mexico Opportunities for bi-national conservation and augmentation projects are important pieces of the package The Scarcity Plan for Mexico contains additional flexibilities for Mexico on par with the flexibility that the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan contains

Viewpoint on Minute 319 and 32x Mexico is a valued partner for management of the Colorado River System Minute 319 has demonstrated its value Moving forward, challenges in managing the River require an all hands-on-deck philosophy Minute 32x has value to all Colorado River stakeholders - we need to get it completed

Next Steps Finalize domestic agreements among the U.S. and the Basin States that relate to Min 32x The Arizona legislature has passed a joint resolution that was signed into law by Governor Doug Ducey on March 2, 2017. That resolution allows Director to sign those domestic agreements Finalize Minute 32x Binational Water Scarcity Plan and Lower Basin DCP: California, Nevada and Arizona must approve LBDCP - in Arizona it is the State legislature - in other states it is water district boards The approval of DCP by the states requires side agreements within each state- those are in progress and are challenging Federal legislation is required for DCP Under the terms of Minute 32x, when Lower Basin DCP takes effect, the Binational Water Scarcity Plan will take effect

Questions? Thomas Buschatzke Director Phone: 602.771.8426 Email: tbuschatzke@azwater.gov Website: www.azwater.gov Twitter: @azwater