Prescribed Fire Workshop

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Presentation transcript:

Prescribed Fire Workshop Nov 30 to Dec 2, 2004

Outline Data Flow National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) Data Quality/Standards Portable Stations Spot Weather Critical Weather Patterns

Data Flow How does that data from my station get out to me and the rest of the world? Important to note that data gets out to the rest of the world….good or bad.

24-Hour Data Delivery -Via Satellite DOMSAT Downlink by NIFC BLM GOES Future Path Wallops, Virginia ASCADS Automated Sorting, Conversion and Distribution System WIMS Weather Information Management System NWS National Weather Service WRCC Western Regional Climate Center If you’re not getting your weather data, start with the station and work your way along the path to see where the problem might be. NIFC Web Site It all starts at the station

NFDRS Forecast Available daily from NWS for your NFDRS stations. Stations must meet NFDRS standards. Data must be shared via GOES. Request through GACC meteorologist. Receiving NFDRS forecast depends on R being changed to O.

NFDRS Forecast (cont.) O obs are swept by WIMS and distributed to NWS via the NWS Gateway in a collective. NFDRS forecast issuance is based on the observation appearing on the collective. If R → O by 1330, FWM is often available in WIMS by 1445 or 1500.

The Flow of Data WIMS NWS Gateway Observation Collective Local owner edits 1300 observation. Changes R → O !! NWS Gateway Process can take as little as 30 minutes from O ob to Fcst indices. Forecast Indices by 1500 NFDRS Forecast 1330-1430 Local NWS office

Quality Data Be sure maintenance is done. Be sure maintenance is documented. Be sure station meets standards. Stations need to be maintained at a minimum once a year.

Standards “Data from weather stations, which have not been maintained and documented, is of no value in operations or litigation” (Fontana 2004).

Weather Station Handbook PMS 426-2 “Blue Book” Relative Humidity Tables Anemometer Heights Also mention the paragraph in there about the fuel bed.

Weather Station Standards PMS 426-3 And …WMO Guide Number 8: Guide to Meteorological Instruments and Methods of Observation http:www.nwcg.gov/pms/pubs/pubs.htm

Why Do We Need Quality? We make decisions based on weather data. We share weather data with the public. We share weather data at briefing prior to burn. We can use weather data during the burn.

Where Can I Get More Info? www.fs.fed.us/raws

RAWS Coordinator Forest Service contact for Region 8 is Barry Garten 540-265-5130

Portable Stations Must be maintained if data used in decision making per Forest Service manual. Voice alerts available. Eventually more frequent transmissions. Recommend buying Regionally and caching. All weather stations including portables must meet NFDRS maintenance standards if using data in any decision making (Cramer Hazard Abatement Plan). Describe voice alerts and how they can help. The portables will eventually be allowed more frequent transmissions on GOES satellite so they are closer to “real time” data. The cost of maintenance is going though the roof. Use portables, but share them and be cost conscious.

Spot Weather Forecasts Spot weather forecasts are available from most NWS office web sites. Web based interface offers faster turn around. Available (in most cases) to State Agencies as well as all Federal agencies. Grid based output makes spot forecast more model dependent, → On site observations are vitally important.

Spot Weather Forecasts (cont.) Have flexible parameters and time periods. Internet based spot forecasts do provide for feedback. Try to arrange for an NWS meteorologist to participate in your Rx burn. Schedule conflicts can provide “challenges”.

Spot Weather Forecasts

Spot Weather Forecasts

Spot Weather Forecasts

Spot Weather Forecasts

Spot Weather Forecasts

Weather Situation

Weather Situation, cont.

Weather Situation, cont. http://www.fs.fed.us/r8/sacc/weather/KBDI/KBDI_Nav_Chart.htm http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/spi/spi.html 3 month Standardized Precipitation Index through Oct 31, 2004

Weather Situation, cont. Weekly Reference KBDI based on % Field Capacity

Days Since RainValid11/17/04

Days Since RainValid11/24/04

Days Since RainValid11/28/04

Critical Weather Patterns Dry cold fronts. Most common in Oct-Nov Possible in Mar-Apr as well North or Northwest winds (FL Panhandle) following passage of a cold front. Beyond the fringes of a hurricane (strong subsidence). Stagnant high pressure (summer time).

Critical Weather Patterns (cont.) Down-Slope winds. Long Term Drought, 30 days? 90 days? 120 days? 6 months? Year? Days Since Rain: is it +1 sigma or greater? RH nighttime recovery below 70% Dry Lightning (fairly rare in the SE).

Forecast vs. Actual Fires

Questions?