Rising Living Standards Topic 4 Economic Growth and Rising Living Standards

Real GDP per Person, 1870-2003 (in 2000 US $)

Real GDP per Capita, 1870 - 2003 Country 1870 1913 1950 1979 2003 US $2,936 $6,366 $11,484 $22,567 $34,875 UK 3,899 6,014 8,481 16,093 26,046 Germany 2,420 2,800 5,106 18,411 25,188 Japan 835 1,571 2,176 14,912 24,037 Brazil 923 100 2,165 6,336 7,205 China 548 571 464 1,076 4,970 Ghana 826 1,187 1,281 1,440

Growth of Real GDP per Capita, 1870 - 2003 Country Annual % Change 1870 – 2003 Annual % Change 1950 – 2003 Annual % Change 1979 - 2003 US 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% UK 1.4 2.1 2.0 Germany 1.8 3.1 1.3 Japan 2.6 4.6 Brazil 1.6 2.3 0.5 China 1.7 6.6 Ghana 0.9 0.4

Arithmetic of Growth: Rule of 70 Approximate number of years required to double real GDP 70 = annual percentage rate of growth

Economic Growth What determines the potential output? Labor productivity or Productivity Amount of output average worker can produce in an hour Average hours of labor Number of hours average worker spends at the job Labor force participation rate (LFPR) Fraction of population that wants to work Size of population

What Determines the Potential Output? Labor productivity

What Determines the Potential Output? Average hours of labor

What Determines the Potential Output? Labor force participation rate (LFPR)

What Determines the Potential Output? Breaking down the total output

What Determines the Potential Output? Review of some linear algebra If Z = X ∙ Y, then % Δ Z ≈ % ΔX + % ΔY If Z = X / Y, then % Δ Z ≈ % ΔX - % ΔY Note: % Δ means percentage change. Applying this rule to the equation of total output

Economic Growth What matters for a rising standard of living is real GDP per capita (i.e. per person) Since - Total output = Productivity x Average Hours x LFPR x Population Then - Output per capita = Total output ÷ Population Output per capita = Productivity x Average Hours x LFPR In terms of percentage growth rates

% Δ Output per person ≈ % Δ productivity + % Δ LFPR Economic Growth A tendency in most developed countries is that average hours of labor are slowly decreasing So our last simplification is to ignore changes in average hours in the equation % Δ Output per person ≈ % Δ productivity + % Δ LFPR

Growth in the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) Recall that

Growth in the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) Currently, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts the employment growth rate to be 1% per year until 2010, about the same as the growth rate of population If so, the % Δ LFPR ≈ % Δ Labor force - % Δ Population = 0 Is there anything we can do to make the labor force grow faster than population, and thus increase the rate of economic growth? Yes Increase labor supply Increase labor demand

Figure 1: An Increase in Labor Supply

Figure 2: An Increase in Labor Demand

Figure 3: The U.S. Labor Market Over A Century

How To Increase Employment Supply side Cut income tax Paying 40% of one’s income as taxes (federal, state, and local) discourages work effort in the United States. Tax cut would provide incentives to people to seek jobs Labor supply curve shifts rightward Changes in government transfer programs Reduce social benefits

How To Increase Employment Demand side Government policies that help increase skills of the workforce or that subsidize employment government-sponsored training programs aid to college students employment subsidies to firms

Growth in Productivity Recently, virtually all growth in the average standard of living can be attributed to growth in productivity What can we do to make productivity grow?

Figure 4: Capital Accumulation and Labor Productivity

Growth in the Capital Stock One key to productivity growth is growth in nation’s capital stock With more capital, a given number of workers can produce more output than before Growth in capital stock will increase productivity as long as it increases amount of capital per worker

Investment and the Capital Stock A stock variable measures a quantity at a moment in time Capital stock is a measure of total plant and equipment in economy at any moment A flow variable measures a process that takes place over a period of time Planned investment is a flow variable Depreciation is decrease in the value of assets As long as investment is greater than depreciation, total stock of capital will rise The greater the flow of investment, the faster will be the rise in capital stock

Targeting Businesses – Demand Side Reducing business taxes Corporate profits tax A cut in tax on profits earned by corporations Investment tax credit A cut in taxes for firms that invest in certain favored types of capital Reducing business taxes or providing specific investment incentives can shift the investment curve (the demand curve in the loanable funds market) rightward

Figure 5: An Increase In Investment Spending

Targeting Households – Supply Side If households decide to save more of their incomes at any given interest rate Supply of loanable funds curve will shift rightward What might induce households to increase their saving? Greater uncertainty about economic future Increase in life expectancy Anticipation of an earlier retirement Change in tastes toward big-ticket items Change in attitude about saving Any of these changes—if they occurred in many households simultaneously—would shift saving curve to the right What can government do to increase household saving? One often-proposed idea is to decrease capital gains tax

Figure 6: An Increase In Savings

Government’s Budget Deficit A increase in government purchases tends to raise interest rates High interest rates discourage business investments So, to induce businesses to invest more, government should reduce its purchases Shrinking deficit or rising surplus tends to reduce interest rates and increase investment However, the effect on economic growth depends on how the budget changes

Figure 7: Deficit Reduction and Investment Spending

Human Capital and Economic Growth Skills and knowledge possessed by workers An increase in human capital works like an increase in physical capital to increase output Causes production function to shift upward Raises productivity and increases average standard of living Human capital investments Education

Technology and Economic Growth Another source of growth is technological change Invention or discovery of new inputs, new outputs, or new methods of production New technology affects economy in much the same way as do increases in capital stock Shifts production function upward Since it enables any given number of workers to produce more output Investments in technology R&D

Accounting for Growth Factors affecting productivity growth Technological advance (40%) Quantity of capital (30%) Education and training (15%) Economies of scale and resource allocation (15%)

Economic Growth Is economic growth desirable and sustainable? The antigrowth view Environmental and resource issues In defense of economic growth Higher standard of living Human imagination can solve environmental and resource issues

Economic Growth Growth is the path to greater material abundance Results in higher standards of living Increases leisure time Allows for the expansion and application of human knowledge Global Competitiveness: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Competitiveness_Report#2011.E2.80.932012_rankings

Economic Growth in China Growth averages in the past 25 years: 9% annual growth output 8% annual growth output per capita Labor more productive More international trade Transition to market economy Joined WTO 2001 Financial system remains weak Income inequality across areas