Alpine Fault Research Proposal Flagship 3/RiskScape Jason Ingham, David Johnston, Nick Horspool, Caroline Orchiston Shannon Abeling (QC Schol), Paco Galvez (QC Schol), Moustafa Swidan (unfunded UA PhD), Stacy Vallis (UA PhD Schol)

Prior to Kaikoura earthquakes Remote access data capture: Logic being that due to landslides etc it will be difficult to get access to West Coast for building/infrastructure inspections. Rely on locals for initial inspections Drones used to limited extent in Christchurch. Technology has since greatly improved. Opportunity to develop pre-programmed flight paths Ensure ‘NZ Inc’ is aware and familiar with technology and opportunity “Social media” can be effective method for data acquisition Locals upload images of building/bridge/infrastructure to ‘data hub’ for remote critique and compilation to understand regional extent of damage Not brought forward Too “gimmicky”? Lacking ‘science excellence’? Not used in Kaikoura earthquakes

Wellington? Studies on taller multi-storey ‘complex buildings’ being undertaken within Flagship 4

RiskScape: Asset inventories, fragilities, and scenario studies for South Island rural industries (wineries and diary factories) Significant influence on national economy. Opportunity to bring Ilan Noy into Alpine Fault work program Significant unreported damage High priority for ‘RiskScape team’ Not brought forward: Not ‘buildings’. Not heritage. Concept was not favoured at last Alpine Fault team meeting

Two problems with applying ‘unadjusted’ Christchurch casualty data Extensive earlier damage in Darfield earthquake when city was unoccupied Many dangerous buildings were barracked in Feb 2011

Revised injury models Casualty state = ground motion x damage states x %debris over building frontage x person present x casualty data Building volume loss, failure modes, debris fall data Rhise casualty data set RiskScape casualty models Pedestrian model data RiskScape scenarios New aspects: Further value extracted from URM dataset Superior casualty models Inform CDEM efforts Improve RiskScape Inform socio-economic impacts

What town/city? Simulations don’t clearly identify a location having large stock of vulnerable buildings Nelson, Ashburton, Timaru, Oamaru, Queenstown, Dunedin, Invercargill, Greymouth Branch faults? ‘Black swan events’?

Oamaru Representative: Location, size, shaking Distinct heritage precinct – align with QuakeCoRE projects (Tourism, architecture) RiskScape: Full asset inventory of every building in Oamaru CBD Specific application of building damage models Application of casualty models New aspects: Superior scenario studies (Asset inventory, damage models, casualty models) Effects of retrofitting on reduced casualties and damage Potentially replicated to other locations? Dunedin? Queenstown?