2012-based Population Projections for England

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Presentation transcript:

2012-based Population Projections for England Denise Williams Office for National Statistics 21 November 2014

Introduction Who needs them? About ONS population projections Projections for England Projections for local authorities

Who needs projections? Policy makers Planners Central government Local government Planners Housing Education Health Social Care Businesses

How would they use them? Directly when estimates are not yet available Within their own models as a basis for, or to act as constraints Variants are often used in models to sense check policies checking out the effects of alternative assumptions

ONS projections UK national population projections Long term horizon to 2112 Variant projections produced Subnational population projections for England 25 year horizon to 2037 Local authority and Clinical Commissioning Groups

Basic methodology Use the cohort component method Start with a base population and age it on a year + Births Deaths +/- migrants Components are calculated based on assumptions made

Projected population growth in England

Population mid-2012 and mid-2037, England

Estimated and projected births and deaths, England, 1971 to 2087

How different are these from the 2010 based national projection Not much in terms of projected population 0.9% smaller by 2037 Base population larger after the 2011 Census Long term assumptions have changed Fertility assumptions are higher TFR of 1.90 Net migration assumptions are lower +143,500 Mortality about the same

Comparison of 2010 and 2012 based projections for 2037 by age and sex for England

Population growth 10 years to mid-2022

Projected population growth rate by local authority, England, 2012 to 2022

Population growth over 10 years to 2022, England Source: 2012-based Subnational Population Projections, ONS

Yorkshire and the Humber in 2012

Yorkshire and the Humber by 2022?

Yorkshire and the Humber by 2037?

York in 2012

York by 2022?

York by 2037?

York

Scarborough in 2012

Scarborough by 2037?

Scarborough

So do we need them? I am biased but I would say yes. What has happened in the past impacts the future structure of the population These statistics clearly illustrate that national trends are not always reflected locally They provide a base line from which debate about what the future population will be can be held However, we also need informed users who understand what projections are not. We don’t have crystal balls

Contact details projections@ons.gsi.gov.uk Any Questions Contact details projections@ons.gsi.gov.uk 01329 444652 Overview of population statistics - http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/population-and-migration/an-overview-of-ons-s-population-statistics/index.html Population estimates and projections - http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Population+Change