Operational Planning for Project Implementation WP4: Operational Modeling Nikos A. Kampanis & Katerina Spanoudaki Coastal Research Laboratory Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics Foundation for Research and Technology – Hellas ODYSSEA Kick-off Meeting June 6-8, 2017 Kavala, Greece This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 727277

WP4: Operational Modelling Start Month: 10, End Month: 54 Participants #1 DUTH: Monitoring and modelling; Setting up & operating Greek observatory #2 FORTH: Lead beneficiary; Hydrodynamic & oil dispersion modelling, marine litter monitoring & modelling #4 VPORTS: Operating Spanish observatory #5 Sapienza: Operating Italian observatory #9 Deltares: Modelling, operational forecasting improvement algorithms #12 AGIR: Operating Moroccan observatory #13 NSV: Operating Algerian observatory #14 ANDDCVS: Operating Tunisian observatory #15 RAED: Operating Egyptian observatory #16 IU: Operating Turkish observatory, Ecosystem component #17 HCMR: Eco-system component (analysis of data from commercial fisheries and fishery surveys) #18 Hidromod: Operating ODYSSEA platform and observatories #19 UNIBO: Bio-geochemical and eco-system modelling #21 GTD: Data transfer, modelling module operation & maintenance #22 EcoOcean: Operating Israeli observatory #24 AUTH: Eco-system modelling #25 CLS: Data transfer in each Observatory #27 Edisoft: Data transfer in each Observatory

WP4 Objectives Overall aim of ODYSSEA: to develop an interoperable platform that integrates networks of observing and forecasting systems across the Mediterranean basin. A new cost-effective system allowing efficient data analysis Integration of physical, chemical and biological information Network of observatories with monitoring & modelling teams Support of environmental management, planning & protection activities Improved monitoring systems to obtain real-time data from the sea Overall objective of WP4: implementation of a ‘chain’ of high resolution models (meteorological, hydrodynamic, wave, oil dispersion, biogeochemical, ecosystem, marine litter & microplastics, etc.) for each Observatory.

Specific Objectives WP4 output ODYSSEA specific objectives Results from the fine resolution ‘chain’ of models applied at Model Observatories (D4.4) Results from oil spill dispersion models, harmful algal bloom forecasting algorithms, mussel growth models, etc. (D4.4) Results from ecosystem models, plastic debris distribution models, etc. (D4.3, D4.4) ODYSSEA specific objectives To consolidate and increase the temporal and geographic coverage of observational data. To extend and improve prediction capacity of existing modelling systems, directly serving end users’ needs To expand existing monitoring systems towards new variables (biological dimension, microplastics)

ODYSSEA operational modelling module Regional observatories set-up around the Mediterranean Sea for modelling and monitoring the marine environment. The observatories will serve as ‘prototypes’ easily replicated in other parts of the Mediterranean Sea or even in other sea basins. Observatories will support implementation of EU maritime policies, provide better ecosystem assessments, forecasts. The Modelling Module Models, existing databases, and remote sensing data will be coupled to provide short- and long-term prognostic results. Integration and harmonisation of already existing model results (e.g. NOAA GEFS meteo model, myOcean CMEMS platform). Integration of new high-resolution models for observatory sites. ODYSSEA System Components

Modelling Strategy High-resolution operational models to resolve meso-scale processes of the coastal and offshore environment Downscaling from open ocean to regional and coastal scale Different models or data sources for each Observatory (ensure maximum reliability) ‘Chain’ of high-resolution operational models will be coupled to existing data platforms (e.g. NOAA, Copernicus Marine Environment Service) to receive initial & boundary conditions Existing regional-coastal operational forecasting systems will be utilized, where available (e.g. Adriatic Forecasting System, Aegean-Levantine Forecasting System) 6

ODYSSEA Operational Modelling Module Modelling Strategy Modelling components: Meteorological component: to provide high- resolution accurate weather forecasts of meteorological parameters (e.g. wind speed & direction, T, relative humidity, etc.) Hydrodynamic component: e.g. POM, Delft3D, NEMO, etc. coupled to weather prediction models Wave component: e.g. WAM, SWAN, WWIII coupled to weather and hydrodynamic models. Biogeochemical/Water quality component: e.g. DELWAQ, BFM, etc. used to simulate aspects of water quality and ecology Oil spill fate & transport component: e.g. MEDSLIK- III, information on surface oil & coastal impact Plastic debris component: distribution of marine debris Ecosystem component: ECOPATH with ECOSIM, food web structure, composition and function Mussel culture population growth models ODYSSEA Operational Modelling Module 7

ODYSSEA Operational Modelling Module Modelling Strategy Mapping of existing regional-coastal operational forecasting systems/modelling systems Models used, advantages/disadvantages, output, variables/parameters simulated, initial & boundary conditions Model output fits to the needs of end users? Share & build on existing initiatives ? Increase temporal and geographic coverage/spatial resolution ? Forcing, initial/boundary conditions ? Expand towards new variables to conform with EU policy & regulations and to directly serve end users’ needs Observatories with no existing forecasting/modelling systems in place ODYSSEA Operational Modelling Module

Connection with other WPs WP13: Marine data availability & integration Task 13.1: Mapping of existing platforms, models and tools Task 13.3: Data gaps analysis Task 13.4: Strategies for filling in data gaps WP4 Models (to be) applied; linking with existing data platforms & remote sensing data; testing & calibration for the Observatory sites Modelling (and monitoring) modules built on strategy to fill in gaps to meet end-users specific needs and EU policy requirements WP2: Setting-up ODYSSEA Observatories Task 2.1: Set up the geospatial and temporal dimensions of ODYSSEA Observatories Task 2.2: Stakeholders and End- users’ needs specification Task 2.4: Prototype Models Chain Development Task 2.5: Monitoring and Modelling data management WP4 Definition of geospatial & temporal dimension and resolution of the modelling module Definition of operational ‘chain’ of models for each observatory Set-up of Internal data flows to provide initial and boundary conditions for the models

Connection with other WPs WP3: Designing the ODYSSEA Platform Task 3.3: ODYSSEA architecture guidelines Task 3.4: Data governance approaches & Data Management Plan for collected data WP4 Task 4.1: Experimental operation of models in each Observatory Task 4.4: Operational demonstration trial and validation WP4 Models validation in each observatory WP5: In-situ Monitoring 10

Connection with other WPs

Preparatory Actions Mapping of existing regional-coastal operational forecasting systems/modelling systems (per Observatory area) Models used, advantages/disadvantages, output, variables/parameters simulated, forcing, initial & boundary conditions Share & build on existing systems ? Models available/partners expertise/advantages-disadvantages: definition of modelling ‘chain’

Preparatory Actions Action Matrix WP2/WP4 Thracian Sea Gulf of Gökova Valencia coastline North Adriatic Sea Arzew Bay/Stora Gulf Gulf of Gabes Al-Hoceima Nile zone Responsible partner   Meteorological Component WRF DUTH Hydrodynamic Component Delft-3D DELTARES Water Quality/ Biogeochemical Component BFM UNIBO Ecosystem Component AUTH Oil spill fate and transport MEDSLIK FORTH Marine Litter Mussel growth population

WP4 Tasks WP4 Partners Task 4.1 M10-M18 Experimental operation of models in each Observatory: set up and operate the ‘chain’ of models defined in Task 2.4, in each Observatory Methods and tools developed in WP2 for models’ coupling and the use of existing databases, remote sensing data as well as internal data flows for initial and boundary conditions will be applied and tested Problems related to models operation will be reported and solved Based on the outcomes of WP1, datasets/observations to be used for model calibration and validation tests at the Observatories will be identified DUTH, FORTH, AUTH, HCMR, Hidromod, Sapienza, IU, VPORTS, UNIBO, EcoO, AGIR, NSV, ANDDCSV, RAED Task 4.2 M18 – M30 Models testing and calibration in each Observatory All testing and calibration activities in each Observatory Ad-hoc calibration/validation protocols and metrics will be defined Models performance will be evaluated in hindcast mode, using available historical observations Results of models testing and calibration for each Observatory will be reported AUTH, FORTH, DUTH, HCMR, Sapienza, IU, Hidromod, VPORTS, UNIBO, EcoO, AGIR, NSV, ANDDCSV, RAED

WP4 Tasks WP4 Partners Task 4.3 M31 – M36 Models validation in each Observatory Both available datasets and in-situ data collected in the framework of the project will be used for models validation activities Validation metrics and protocols defined in Task 4.2 will be used Results of this task will be fundamental for the potential of the models to provide reliable forecast simulation results FORTH, DUTH, AUTH, HCMR, Hidromod, Sapienza, IU, UNIBO Task 4.4 M36 – M42 Operational demonstration trial and validation The chain of models will be run in operational form, applying also data assimilation methods and tools developed in WP8 FORTH, DUTH, AUTH, HCMR, Hidromod, Sapienza, IU, Deltares, UNIBO Task 4.5 M40 – M48 Data transfer testing in each Observatory Test the uploading of models output to the ODYSSEA platform. Procedures for data transfer developed in WP2 (Task 2.4) will be tested and possible errors will be reported and solved. Edisoft, FORTH, CLS 15

WP4 Tasks WP4 Partners Task 4.6 M10 – M54 ODYSSEA platform modelling module operation and maintenance Operational problems related to the functioning of the modelling module of the platform will be reported and solved through a dedicated maintenance and service team GTD, FORTH, DUTH, Hidromod, UNIBO, Edisoft 16 16

WP4 Deliverables Delivarables Name Partners D 4.1 Technical report on the experimental operation of models in each Observatory (M18) DUTH, FORTH, AUTH, HCMR, Hidromod, Sapienza, IU, VPORTS, UNIBO, EcoO, AGIR, NSV, ANDDCSV, RAED D 4.2 Report of models validation results in each Observatory (M36) AUTH, FORTH, DUTH, HCMR, Sapienza, IU, Hidromod, VPORTS, UNIBO, EcoO, AGIR, NSV, ANDDCSV, RAED D 4.3 Report on operational demonstration trial and validation of models in each Observatory (M42) FORTH, DUTH, AUTH, HCMR, Hidromod, Sapienza, IU, UNIBO D 4.4 Report of the procedures for ODYSSEA platform modelling module operation and maintenance (M54) FORTH, DUTH, AUTH, HCMR, Hidromod, Sapienza, IU, Deltares, UNIBO D 4.5 Report on data harmonization (M47) Edisoft, FORTH, CLS

THANK YOU !!!