A part of Creston Unlimited A re-built methodological process for the 2017 General Election Martin Boon

It’s quicker to say what’s the same, rather than what’s new, but: Telephone to Online. N = 1,000 to N = 2,000. Political quotas at fieldwork stage in addition to demographic quotas. Turnout weighting by age x class rather than by 10-point scale factors. Weighting by interest in politics. Weighting by recall of past vote to 100%. Variable adjustment of both ‘partial refusers’ and (fully new) ‘total refusers’ in line with partial refuser adjustment plus 20% Conservative dividend.

Not so heroic failure: the 2015 ICM experience Unweighted Demog only PV weights Turnout weights Pol. Int weights Adjusted 35% 32% 33% - 34% 38% 37% 36% 8% 7% 9% 11% 12% 5% 6% 3% 4% PC/Other 2% +2 -3 +1 - - +1 -

ICM’s latest poll (19-21st May 2017) Unweighted Demog only PV weights Turnout weights Pol. Int weights Adjusted 43% 44% 45% 47% 48% 37% 36% 34% 33% 9% 8% 3% 4% 2% PC/Other 1% +4 -4 - +1 - - -

The view from over here If ICM remains the outlier on the low end of Labour, I will be delighted. If we over-shoot on the Tories, well, it’s about time, and I speculate it would not be far away from the result. My polling golden rule: if you can find a point (or two) for the Tories off Labour without doing much else, congratulations. But I’m done with method changes……I think. The others can herd if they like. Amongst other things, I have been accused of class war and age discrimination. Always grateful for further thoughts.