National Passenger Transport Agenda AusRAIL 2006 National Passenger Transport Agenda 22 November 2006 L.E.K. Consulting Pty Ltd Level 35, Freshwater Place 2 Southbank Boulevard Southbank VIC 3006 Australia t: 61.3.9270 8300 f: 61.3.9270 8350 lek.com

Background Public report: “National Passenger Transport Agenda” being launched at AusRAIL 2006 this week Commissioned by ARA passenger rail operators (RailCorp, Queensland Rail, Connex, Yarra, TransAdelaide, PTA WA) Work undertaken by L.E.K. Consulting, with extensive stakeholder consultation Focussed on metropolitan public passenger transport Mode agnostic

Objectives of the report Propose a comprehensive national agenda for action to improve public transport Take a national (metropolitan) approach Provide new facts and analysis to improve the quality of decision making Base arguments on evidence and analysis, not emotion

Agenda Status quo The case for more effective PT Actions

Status quo – ten key findings PT carries > 3m trips each weekday Over last 20 years patronage growth = population growth Mode share is < 10% of trips and has been declining steadily; but much higher in peaks, to / from CBDs Based on international comparisons we have very low density cities very high car ownership rates very high metropolitan road space per capita In Australian cities the overall cost of transport to the community much higher (13% v 6-8% for European cities)

Status quo – ten key findings (continued) Spend $5bn pa in operating costs on public transport, but recover only 32% in the farebox; this is very low by international standards Low cost recoveries are not driven by fare levels, but rather low density networks, low off-peak use, high concession proportion and cost inefficiencies In the last year high petrol prices have significantly increased patronage, (10-11% in some cities) placing pressure on peak capacity Australia has no national “moving people” policy; there are anomalous taxation incentives that favour car use At State level, inconsistent planning and fragmented governance. However state Government have committed > $25 bn to public transport enhancements over next 10-15 years

Three million trips per day; patronage growth effectively = population growth Total Public Transport Patronage by Capital City (1985-05) CAGR% (1985-05) Total 1.1 Adelaide (1.6) Perth 2.4 Brisbane 1.2 Melbourne 1.4 Millions of Passengers p.a. Sydney 1.1 Population Growth 1.3

Low density cities and high road length Population Density in Major Cities (2004) People Per Hectare Length of Road Per Capita (2001) Metres per capita

High overall costs for transport Wealth spent on passenger transport (1990) Percent of GRP

Total Public Transport Operational Costs* Five Capital Cities (2005) Low cost recovery Total Public Transport Operational Costs* Five Capital Cities (2005) Operating Costs Fare box Subsidy required Billions of Dollars ~1.6 ~3.3 Cost Recovery = ~32% ~4.9 * excludes depreciation and interest

Fragmented Governance in some States 17/04/2018 Fragmented Governance in some States Public Transportation Roads Infrastructure and Projects Planning NSW Minister for Rail Minister for Roads / Assistant Minister for Transport Minister for Infrastructure Minister for Planning VIC Minister for Transport Minister Major Projects Minister for Planning QLD Minister for Transport and Main Roads Treasurer and Minister for Infrastructure Minister for Local Government, Planning & Sport SA Minister for Transport, Infrastructure and Energy Minister of Urban Development & Planning WA Minister for Planning and Infrastructure Source: Government Websites

Agenda Status quo The case for more effective PT Actions

No one factor, but range of benefits Congestion relief Mitigating rising fuel prices Reducing social exclusion Environmental and health benefits

Minutes of Delay per KM Travelled Urban Areas (1999 and 2005) Despite heavy investment in roads, traffic speeds are slowing and delays are increasing Minutes of Delay per KM Travelled Urban Areas (1999 and 2005) Morning Peak Evening Peak Minutes/ KM Minutes/ KM 2005 2005 1999 1999

Congestion Costs as a % of GDP Congestion costs are a material proportion of GDP; estimated to rise to $30bn by 2015 Congestion Costs as a % of GDP (2001 Estimate) High cost to business and the economy High social cost ~3.0 Percent ~2.6 ~1.9 ~1.5 Congestion Cost (Billions) ~$16.5

Australia has among the highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita Greenhouse Gas Emissions / Capita (Various Years 1992 -02) Australia Australia OECD members Non-OECD countries Tonnes of CO2 Per Capita

Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2004) Transport is only 11% of total emissions but the fastest growing segment, and potentially more actionable Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2004) Buses Waste Rail Land Use Shipping Fugitive Emissions Industrial Processes Civil Aviation Transport Trucks Percent Agriculture Stationary Energy Cars & Motorcycles

Lack of transport contributes to social disadvantage, with consequential economic cost Percentage of Jobs Accessible Within 40 Mins of Travel Victoria (1996) By Car By Public Transport Without a car, very few jobs are accessible within a reasonable time <3% of jobs 3-25% of jobs >25% of jobs

Public transport modes cost substantially less when externalities are considered Passenger Transport Externality Costs (2005) Dollars/ 1000 Passenger kms Nature and Landscape Climate Change Air Pollution Noise Accidents INDICATIVE Urban Effects Upstream Process ~160 ~74 ~35

Agenda Status quo The case for more effective PT Actions

Everyone has a role to play 17/04/2018 Everyone has a role to play Commonwealth Government State Governments Local Government Business Community Transport Operators

Commonwealth Government Many roles the Commonwealth can play, even recognising that service delivery will remain a State responsibility incentive payments to unlock inefficiencies performance monitoring and benchmarking national leadership on key issues eg road pricing facilitate knowledge sharing If the Commonwealth adopted a more active stance, it could develop a national “moving people” policy to guide State and local policy fund major projects of national significance (as is the case for roads)

State Governments Three overriding themes getting more out of the existing assets and infrastructure growing the transport system changing travel behaviour Many initiatives require political leadership, as well as funding

Transport operators Deliver consistent and reliable services Exploit new technologies Pursue operational efficiencies Pursue a more customer centric mindset First class project delivery

Summary Sufficient evidence to suggest we are at a turning point in the role of transport in our cities While private car will remain the predominant mode, there are strong economic, social and environmental reasons for a larger role by public transport To realise these benefits requires a concerted national approach, and co-ordinated effort by key stakeholder groups