Oil and Non-Oil Monarchies in the MENA Prof. M. Cammett POLS1270 Feb. 16, 2012

MENA Monarchies: Similarities & Differences Commonalities? Royal families Relative inclusiveness, freedom of expression (esp. non-oil) Differences Oil wealth Role of royals in government Why does this matter? What’s at stake? Yet . . . variation in inclusiveness of opposition And . . . . Variation in freedom of the press

World Development Indicators (2008) Oil Wealth in the MENA Oil Rents/GDP World Development Indicators (2008)

BUT, the higher income Gulf oil countries score especially poorly on “voice and accountability.” Voice and Accountability in the MENA (World Governance Indicators, World Bank 2009)

Recap: Political Rights and Civil Liberties in the MENA Source: Freedom House (2012) Political Rights and Civil Liberties are measured on a one-to-seven scale, with one representing the highest degree of Freedom and seven the lowest. Democracies Republics Monarchies

Comparative Analysis of MENA Monarchies: Case Selection Oil monarchies: Kuwait v. Saudi Arabia v. Non-oil monarchies: Jordan (& Morocco)  Why these cases? Axes of comparison: - Origins of state/nation - Political development (through 2010) - Methods of rule/control & nature of opposition

Political Origins: Kuwait & Saudi Arabia 1744: Alliance b/t al-Saud & al-Wahhab 1902+: Abdulaziz al-Saud led conquests of Arabian peninsula 1912: Took Hejaz from Hashemites 1932: Saudi Arabia established 1938: Discovery of oil  Effects on state-building (esp. post 1973) Kuwait: 18th cen.: Merchant elites  Al-Sabah Family 1930s: Discovery of oil  Effects on state-building 1938: Majlis established Struggles between al-Sabah & elite families

Political Origins: Jordan Who is “Jordanian”? The “artificiality” of Jordan & the nation-building project: Mansaf, the “national” dish Jordan First Campaign Legacies of colonial boundary making: The East Bank/West Bank Cleavage Palestinian-Transjordanian relations: 1948 War  Control WB, refugees 1967 War  Refugees 1970: Black September 1988: Renunciation of claims to WB Implications for Palestinian citizenship? Throne Day 1999

Political Development: Kuwaiti Exceptionalism Origins: Al-Sabah - elite relations External threats How is Kuwait an exception? In what ways, is it not?

Political Development: Who Rules in Saudi Arabia? Family Council (2000) Allegiance Commission (2006)

Jordan: State Building and Political Development State-building under King Hussein (1950s-1999) 1952 Constitution Structure of government? Where does power lie? 1989 political opening Why? What changed and what stayed the same? 1994 peace treaty with Israel  Tolerance for dissent declined

Methods of Rule How to maintain power? The menu of options: Coercion Patronage Cooptation Ideology Civil society & opposition groups

Kuwait: Methods of Political Control & Societal Responses Al-Sabah v. society Manipulation of electoral rules, etc. Suspensions of parliament Oil and political control Civil society: The diwaniyya Islamists in parliament

Saudi Arabia: Why and how the longevity of Saudi rule? Major mechanisms: Patronage/distribution (Yet poverty and inequality in the world’s largest oil exporter!) Penetration of society Coercion Legitimating ideology Political liberalization? Why? What? (Early 1990s, 2005+) The Saudi public sphere Islamists and state-ulama relations

Jordan: A “liberal” MENA monarchy? Major opposition groups Leftists Islamists  Islamic Action Front (IAF) Electoral dynamics in a “hybrid” regime 1989: IAF victory 1993: The regime wises up  electoral engineering 1997: IAF boycott  pro-regime parliament 2003: Return of IAF (sort of) 2007: Rigged? The Hamas effect? How much would IAF win in free elections? The image of the monarchy at home v. abroad

Conclusion Variation across oil monarchies: Kuwait v. Saudi Arabia Why Kuwaiti “exceptionalism”? Variation across oil & non-oil monarchies Why comparative openness of non-oil monarchies?