Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study by EnerNex Corporation Mathias Westerholm 18.11.2016

Contents Introduction Focus area Wind scenarios Transmission requirements Operational impacts and reserve requirements Carbon sensitivity All in all, a lot of graphs and results

Introduction Study began in 2007 Revised in 2011 Load data from 2004-2006 Wind profiles from 2004-2006 Studies the Eastern Interconnection in 2024 The study team began by modelling winf resources in a large part of the Eastern Interconnection and finished by conducting a detailed wind integration study and top-down transmission analysis.

Scope of the study

Study methodology 1) Wind plant output data development 2) Transmission requirement analysis 3) Wind integration analysis EWITS project consisted of three major tasks Use wind data and load data together, to capture correlations Handful of future snapshots as it could be in 2024 Economic considerations, also considered reliability

Focus area Current transmission expansion planning is based on a decision-making process that starts with the present and looks forward through time. The existing bulk power grid in the United States is the result of such a bottom-up approach. These top down methods tend to create designs with more transmission than bottom-up methods. The primary reason is that the total economic potential of increasing the economic efficiency of the generation fleet—including wind generation in the Eastern Interconnection—is used to justify transmission expansion

Wind profile

Scenarios for 2024 4 scenarious of projected electricity requirements in 2024 3 with 20% penetration 1 with 30% penetration Based on the Eastern Wind Data Study 2004, 2005, 2006 High spatial (2-kilometer) and temporal (hourly and 10-minute) resoultion To reach 20% target, tenfold increase of todays wind power generation - 225 000MW 30% target, 330 000MW

The four scenarios

Wind capacity Scenario 1

Wind capacity Scenario 4

Current situation Around 5%

Wind modelling Numerical methods were used, also known as mesoscale models, Numerical simulations together with observational data sets create an four-dimensional gridded wind speed data set Hundreds of wind plants used

Transmission requirement Locate wind generation across the interconnection, determine needed additional nonwind capacity to ensure reliability in 2024 No new transmission was considered at this stage (constrained case) Identify energy sources and sinks Assumption capacity value of 20% Gives a rough estimate of a budget for transmission immprovement

Case no new transmission and Scenario 2 wind installations Electricity price Case no new transmission and Scenario 2 wind installations

New transmission needed

New transmission for Scenario 1

Costs of new transmission

Conclusions about transmission 800-kV HVDC and EHV AC lines are preferred because of the volumes of energy that need to be transported and the long distances Significant wind generation can be included

Operational impacts Production-cost model Hourly power system operational simulations with the alternatives and the load data from 2004-2006 The model takes the wind generation at each injection bus (closest transmission connection to the wind plant) and dispatches accordingly nonwind generation

Reserve requirements Operating reserves increased Contingency reserves not affected Spinning reseves increased Need for regulation dramatically increased

Spinning reserves

Regulating reserve

Reserve conclusions The fastest changes in balancing area demand—on time scales from a few to tens of seconds—are dominated by load, even with very large amounts of wind generation. Regulating reserve requirements are driven by errors in short-term (e.g., 10 to 20 minutes ahead) wind generation forecasts

Production cost modeling Because of its low dispatch price, wind generation will decrease local marginal prices Addition of transmission equalizes the local marginal prices Offshore wind has more effect on price in eastern load centers because of its proximity to large load centers, otherwise served by generation with high costs

Production cost of electricity

Wind integration costs

Annualized total costs

Carbon sensitivity What happens if a price of carbon emissions is set at $100/MWh?

Effect on new generation CC = combined cycle; CT = combustion turbine; DR = demand response; IGCC = integrated gas combined cycle; IGCC/Seq = integrated gas combined cycle with sequestration; CC/Seq = combined cycle with sequestration; RET Coal = coal plant retirements; Replacement CC = replacement combined cycle Figure13. Generation expansion by scenario, including the carbon sensitivity case Fossil fuel decrease, nuclear up expansion, CC generation increase for managing variability

Effect on price Comparison of generation-weighted LMP by region for Scenario 2 and carbon sensitivity case

Carbon emissions from different scenarios

Present value of accumulated costs

Uncertainties Smart grid implications and demand responsiveness Charging of PHEVs Optimization with high amounts of wind Fuel sensitivity Energy storage