Technical Task Update FY16-17 Presentation to the NETAC Policy and Technical Committees May 3, 2017 Sue Kemball-Cook, Jeremiah Johnson, John Grant and Greg Yarwood

Today’s Presentation Update on FY16-17 Technical Tasks Task 1: Emission Reduction Projects Task 2: High Ozone Day Analysis Task 3: Photochemical Modeling Content slide

Task 1: TERP Emissions Reduction Projects May 20, 2016 NETAC Meeting NETAC committee members requested to identify people responsible for fleets of vehicles/equipment that may be eligible for TERP emissions reduction funding Summer 2016 ETCOG followed up with potential applicants and provided information on TERP and upcoming TCEQ workshop in Northeast Texas Fall 2016 TERP ERIG Program opened for applications TCEQ held a TERP grant application workshop in Longview Spring 2017 ETCOG and Ramboll Environ followed up with workshop attendees on TERP application status Based on responses received, a total of 13 project applications were under consideration by three individuals Fall 2017 TCEQ releases TERP grant award information Ramboll Environ reports on Northeast Texas TERP participation and effectiveness of outreach efforts

Task 1: TERP Emissions Reduction Projects TERP Programs Now Accepting Applications Rebate Grants Program https://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/terp/rebate.html Due May 26, 2017 (1st come, 1st served) Texas Natural Gas Vehicle Grant Program https://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/terp/tngvgp.html

Task 2: High Ozone Day Analysis 2016 high ozone day analysis review complete 2017 high ozone day analysis will be completed by November 15, 2017

Task 3: Photochemical Modeling Photochemical model is a tool for air quality planning Control strategy evaluation, attainment demonstration EPA attainment demonstration modeling method uses base year and future year together to project future year ozone design values NETAC FY16-17 modeling used TCEQ episodes for 2012 base year, 2017 future year Model performance evaluation/improvement efforts for 2012 base case modeling 2017 future year modeling Based on projected emission inventory close to current year; most relevant available episode for Northeast Texas air quality planning Today’s talk is an update on FY16-17 modeling efforts – final results will be reported at fall/winter NETAC meeting and in Task 3 final report

Outline of FY16-17 Ozone Modeling June 2012 episode – model improvement Model overestimated ozone Efforts focused on weather inputs to CAMx In July 2016, TCEQ expanded episode to May-September 2012 Additional high ozone days in Northeast Texas Evaluation of full episode for Northeast Texas Applied new model evaluation techniques In December 2016, TCEQ updated their 2012 model and released 2017 future year modeling Source apportionment modeling for Northeast Texas for 2017 June 1, 26-28 are the only days with MDA8>70 ppb in Northeast Texas during the June episode. Full ozone season episode picks up 8 additional days June Episode

Evaluation of Modeled Local Ozone Increment How well does the model simulate a local area’s contribution to ozone? Directly relevant to Northeast Texas’ use of photochemical modeling Evaluation technique requires dense monitoring network – applied to Dallas Fort Worth

2017 CAMx Source Apportionment Results 2017 Projected Design Values Projected 2017 (actual 2016) design values Longview 66 ppb (66 ppb) Tyler 64 ppb (65 ppb) Karnack 65 ppb (62 ppb) Attainment of the 70 ppb NAAQS projected for all of the 5-County Area

Contribution to 2017 Design Values from 5-County Area Emissions EGU Contribution Onroad Contribution Oil and Gas Contribution EGUs make largest contribution Signature of I-20, urban areas visible in onroad contribution O&G pattern corresponds to well distribution, but effect of nearby areas of intensive O&G production (LA, Panola County) not shown here

Impact of Haynesville Shale on Northeast Texas Design Values Hayneville Shale Region O&G Contribution to 2017 Projected Design Values Haynesville region O&G contribution includes O&G emissions contribution to ozone from the 5-County area and all other counties defined by the Texas Railroad Commission to have production from the Hayesville Shale formation. Haynesville region O&G emissions contribution to NETAC design values Karnack 4.9 ppb Longview 3.5 ppb Tyler 2.2 ppb

Ongoing Work Complete model performance evaluation/improvement efforts for 2012 base case Evaluate sensitivity of 2017 source apportionment results to weather inputs Complete analysis of source apportionment results Summarize FY16-17 efforts in report due November 15, 2017

END PREPARED UNDER A GRANT FROM THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY This presentation was financed through grants from the State of Texas through the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The content, findings, opinions and conclusions are the work of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent findings, opinions or conclusions of the TCEQ. Endslide