Adaptation or mitigation, Oil/Gas and Climate Research in Norway IGBP Symposium 24th May 2012 Professor Oluf Langhelle

Outline … The dilemma: Oil/Gas or Climate Change? Some definitions Briefly about Climate Research in Norway Norwegian Climate Politics Norwegian Climate Policy Justifications of Oil/Gas from a mitigation and sustainable development perspective Future dilemmas and implications for research

The dilemmas and core political issues … Can Oil/Gas activities be reconciled with ambitious climate change policies and targets? Should more natural gas be utilized domestically? Should Lofoten/Vesterålen and the Barents Sea be opened up for oil and gas exploration?

GHG emissions by source 2011. Mill. tons CO2-equivalents GHG emissions by source 2011*. Mill. tons CO2-equivalents. Change in percent 2010-2011* and 1990-2011* 2011 Change in percent 1990-2011 Change in percent 2010-2011 Total 52,7 5,2 2,3 Oil and gas1 13,4 73,5 -2,6 Industry 11,9 -37,4 -1,6 Electricity prod. 2,1  557,8 -8,6 Road transport 10,1 29,5 -0,4 Other transport (Aviation, sea, fishing etc.) 7,2 27,1 0,0 Agriculture 4,2 -5,9 -1,0 Other 2,4 13,6 1 Includes both offshore and onshore Source: SSB, Klima- og forurensningsdirektoratet.

GHG emissions without new measures… Approx. 16-18% increase towards 2020 …

Climate research in Norway …

Some definitions … Mitigation: An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001). Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2001).

Status, Programme objectives NORKLIMA Figur NORKLIMAs portefølje fordelt på delmål. Tall i mill. kroner. Delmål: 1) To improve understanding of the climate system and its variability, and to quantify uncertainty. 2) To improve knowledge of climate change and its impacts on buildings, 3) To improve knowledge of climate change and its impacts on natural and cultivated ecosystems and natural resource-based industries. 4) To improve knowledge of the impacts of climate change on society and how adaptive capacity can be strengthened. The following scientific objective has been added: 5) To improve knowledge of the links between emission trends and the development of society, and of international cooperation to mitigate climate change. 6 1) To improve understanding of the climate system and its variability, and to quantify uncertainty. 2) To improve knowledge of climate change and its impacts on buildings 3) To improve knowledge of climate change and its impacts on natural and cultivated ecosystems and natural resource-based industries. 4) To improve knowledge of the impacts of climate change on society and how adaptive capacity can be strengthened. The following scientific objective has been added: 5) To improve knowledge of the links between emission trends and the development of society, and of international cooperation to mitigate climate change (2008). 6) Climate Policy measures and politics (2010)

Division for Energy, Resources and the Environment: Funding by Ministry and Research programmes

CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage … Source: http://www.iea.org/subjectqueries/cdcs.asp

REDD – 2008 Bali REDD: “Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and (forest) Degradation (in Developing Countries)”.

Climate politics and policies

Norwegian climate targets and measures … 1989: Report to Parliament (St.meld. 46, follow-up of WCED Our Common Future). Parliament sets the target of stabilizing GHG emissions by the year 2000) 1991: CO2-tax introduced 1992: Norway plays an active role in the negotiations of the UNFCCC 1992-1997: Norway awaits the outcome of the climate negotiations within UNFCCC 1994: Stabilization target abandoned 1997: Norway is allowed to increase GHG emissions with 1 % from 1990 level in the period 2008-2012, the Kyoto mechanisms can be used as a supplement to domestic action 1997: Voluntary agreement with the aluminum industry, and later in 2004 with the process industry 1999: 3 TWh wind power target by 2010 adopted by Parliament 2005: A national quota system adopted for industry, enlarged in 2008 covering 40 % of Norwegian emissions 2007: REDD Initiative Bali 2008: Climate compromise in Parliament, with new targets 2010: Klimakur 2020 released by Directorate of Climate and polution 1990-2011: GHG emissions increase and are expected to increase with approximately 16-18 % above 1990 level towards 2020

Kyoto targets for selected countries USA - 7 % Norway + 1 % Australia + 8 % Japan - 6 % Canada EU - 8 % Iceland + 10 % Russia

Norway’s approach … Norway is a small country The problem of climate change must be solved at the international level But Norway should be a forerunner in climate policies The framework for climate policies: Sustainable development The problem: Who and where are the emission reductions to be taken?

Norway’s (negotiating) position: Norway is a special country! The energy structure: Almost 100 % of electricity covered by hydropower Energy intensive industry: A large process industry based on cheap electricity The transport sector: A long, stretched country with decentralized settlement The oil and gas sector: Supplies Europe with energy and an alternative to coal For those reasons, national mitigation measures are more expensive than in many other countries

Political cleavages on energy and environmental issues … RV – SV – V – Krf – Sp – AP – H – FrP National or international mitigation?

The CDM limitation: Article 17 (d) The acquisition of emission reduction units shall be supplemental to domestic actions for the purposes of meeting commitments under Article 3.

Policy … domestic vs international GHG emissions Three types of arguments: Consequentialist arguments – what are the net effects of certain actions? Cost-effectiveness – what are the costs of different measures? Justice – what is a just distribution of global emissions?

Why Norway should increase its emissions! Consequentialist arguments: Increased domestic consumption of oil for heating would increase national emissions, but reduce global emissions by substituting coal in Europe. Most of the increase in Norwegian GHG emissions will come from the oil and gas sector, but this gas is exported to Europe, making it possible for them to reduce their emissions by fuel switching (from coal to gas) as in the United Kingdom. (Lunde and Roland, ECON, Dagbladet, 8-9 August 1997).

Why Norway can increase its emissions! Cost-efficiency – no need to give up unnecessary much welfare in other areas to reach environmental policy targets (White Paper No. 34, 2006-2007). … climate change policies should give a large weight to global cost-efficiency. Measures in developing countries can give triple effect … a larger climate effect per NOK, and a larger effect on the local environment, it can give a substantial development effect (White Paper No. 34, 2006-2007).

Why Norway should reduce its emissions! Contraction and convergence. Reach an international agreement on an acceptable level of CO2 By a given year Calculate a schedule Share the right to emit carbon equally among the world’s population, i.e. on a per-capita basis.

Norway and the Kyoto target … Prior measures Reductions from the quota system Uptake in forests Buying of quotas internationally GHG emissions in Norway

Current policy targets … Over-fulfill the Kyoto target by 10% 30% GHG reduction of global emissions by 2020 compared with 1990 emissions (40% with an international agreement) Carbon neutral by 2050 (2030 with an international agreement)

New measures 2012 … A climate, energy and technology fund (30 billion NOK 2013, 50 billion NOK by 2020) Increased carbon tax for the petroleum sector More renewable energy and substitution of fossil fuels Electrification offshore Buildings More public transport Electrification of transport Bio gas

The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation 2011

Too much fossil fuels? ”… Who should close the tap for which fosssil fuels?” (Ellen Hambro, Stavanger Aftenblad, 2 october 2011) http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/may/06/carbon-emissions

Thank you for your attention!