Measuring Resident Support and the Use of Referenda for Hosting the Commonwealth Games in New Zealand Mel Johnston, Unitec Institute of Technology Dr. Geoff Dickson, AUT University Dr. Michael Naylor, AUT University

Context Perceived benefits of hosting major sport event Revitalise urban landscapes, differeniate themselves, & become a desirable destination for both tourists and residents (Nauright, 2015; Spirou, 2010) Competition between major cities to host Use of public funds The benefits of hosting of major sport events have been widely promoted by governments as a way for cities to revitalise their urban landscapes, to differentiate themselves, and become a desirable destination for both tourists and residents. As a result of this, there is strong competition between major cities to host such events. It is expensive to host major sport events, and the benefits, or lack of, have been widely researched and reported. Therefore, the use of public funds to host these events is a contentious issue.

Community Support Essential for successful event Common sport management research topic Perceived social, economic and environmental impact Contextually based (Kim, Jun, Walker & Drane, 2015) Community support is considered an essential part of planning and operating a successful event. The measuring of community support in relation to major sport events is a well established study within academic research. The perceived social, economic and environmental impacts that these events have on the local community are the common impacts investigated in both the pre- event, during and post event studies.

Referenda Increasingly common in decision making process Minimal research in sport event context Showing community support for a major sport event is often a requirement of a bid to host a major sport event. It is becoming increasingly common for a city to hold a referendum as a means to measure community support, and a result decide if the city should submit a bid to host. Krakow’s referendum for hosting 2022 Winter Olympics found almost 70% of voters didn’t support bid. Most recently, Hamburg withdrew their bid to host 2024 Olympics after 51.6% of voters not in favour of hosting. Of the three 3 cities remaining in the 2024 Olympics bid (Paris, Los Angeles, Budapest), have no plans to hold a referendum, although residents are calling for a referendum. As this is a fairly new action, there is little research in referenda in a sport event context

NEW ZEALAND Major Events NZ has been connected with a future bid to host Commonwealth Games The Tale of Two Cities Auckland Christchurch In the past year or two, NZ has been connected with a future bid to host the Commonwealth Games once again. This research focuses on the semi-hypothetical setting of either Christchurch or Auckland hosting a future Commonwealth Games.

Auckland Desirable location Auckland hosted Commonwealth Games in 1990 RWC 2011, World Triathlon Grand Final, Cricket World Cup, U20 Football World Cup, World Masters Games… As NZ’s largest city, Auckland is known as an ideal location to host major sport events. Having recently hosted the Rugby World Cup, World Triathlon Grand Final, Cricket World Cup, U20 Football World Cup, and next year the World Masters Games, Auckland is seen as a great location with experience and facilities for such events. Auckland was also host of the Commonwealth Games in 1990 – which I attended as a 5 year old. However, with a full schedule of major events within this city, are residents in support of hosting the Commonwealth Games, or are the battle weary, fatigued by the disruption to their daily living. Do they wish to have a greater say in the decision making on whether to host major events within their city, as they are directly impacted both positively and negatively by these events.

CHRISTCHURCH Hosted British Commonwealth Games in1971 2011 Christchurch earthquake Align with government investment into city rebuild Christchurch’s story is fairly different story. The February 2011 earthquakes which not only caused a large loss of life, also severely damaged Christchurch’s infrastructure. Due to damage to the city’s stadiums, CHCH lost their rights to host their 7 allocated RWC games. Christchurch has previously hosted the formally known British Commonwealth Games in 1971. The large costs of hosting the Commonwealth Games may be more easily stomached by Christchurch residents as it potentially could be seen as aligned with the city rebuild. Not only investing into damaged facilities and infrastructure but also restoring pride and international recognition to the city.,

Purpose of Study Explore the use of referenda to ascertain local resident support for hosting a major sport event in Auckland and Christchurch. Understand the perceived social, economic and environmental impacts that hosting a major sport event have for local residents in Auckland and Christchurch.

Approach : MIXED METHODS QUANTITATIVE STAGE Cross sectional study of local residents in Auckland and Christchurch Representative sample Online market research panel To make the results relevant to a real world decision, a representative sample of participants will be surveyed through an online market research panel.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS 1. Should there be a referendum? 2. Would you participate in the referendum? 3. How would you vote in the referendum? Survey questions will be based on investigating these three research questions:

Study 1 REFERENDUM SUPPORT CONTROLLED INDEPENDENT DEPENDENT Age Civic Duty Referendum Support Gender Political Cynicism Education Political Interest Habitual Voting Political Efficacy Political Ideology Satisfaction with Democracy The first research question focuses on support for the use of referenda to decide whether to bid to host the Commonwealth Games. In referenda support research the two major schools of thought are firstly, those who are politically engaged are more likely to support referenda, and secondly, those are disengaged and dissatisfied by politics are more likely to support referenda. Shuck and De Vreese’s (2015) name these as ‘civic duty’ and ‘political cynicism’. The argument is that referenda provides an opportunity for residents to have say, and become politically engaged, and therefore perform their civic duty. In addition, those who have critical or cynical atitutdes towards poltics and are disillusioned with government see referenda as a way for political expression. Shuck and de Vreese argue that these two concepts are important predictors to both referenda support. They do not believe these two perspectives should be seen as the only explanation, but in addition to already established factors (for whuch they measured and controlled in their study). Shuck & de Vreese (2015)

Satisfaction with Democracy Study 2 Voter Turnout CONTROLLED INDEPENDENT DEPENDENT Age Civic Duty Voter Turnout Gender Political Cynicism Education Habitual Voting Political Efficacy Political Ideology Satisfaction with Democracy Study 2 focuses on voter turn out. Just because someone supports the use of a referendum does not necessarily mean that they will turn up and participate. Shuck & de Vreese argue that in addition to civic duty and political cynicism being important factors in determining referenda support, they are also important predictors in determining voter turnout. Shuck & de Vreese (2015)

Study 3 Commonwealth games Support INDEPENDENT DEPENDENT Economic Benefits Commonwealth Games Support Opportunity Cost Facility Maintenance Interesting Things to Do Disruption Pride Delinquent Behaviour Environment Showcase Effect Increased Prices Access Denied Justice New Infrastructure Town/Region Character The final research question measures resident support for the hosting of the Commonwealth Games within their region. How would you vote within a referendum. The money question. Measuring perceived social, environmental and economic impacts is a well established means to measure resident support for a major sport event. Deery, Jago & Fredline (2006) developed a scale to assess the impact of tourist events within a region. Their aim was create a user friendly scale. Previous scales are typically long and cumbersome. Aim to create a more manageable tool that can be used to measure impact simply and regularly. This fits perfectly with this research based on the fact that measuring event support is only one part of the research, and therefore needs to be cost effective, and secondly, if this case study was to become a reality in the future, we would have the ability to repeat this study. Deery, Jago & Fredline (2006) decreased 40 well established variables relating to perceived social, economic and environmental impacts, into 14 items, which are: Showcase – the event will showcase the region in a positive light, helping to promote a better opinion of the region and encourage future tourism and or business investment. Opportunity cost – too much public money spent on developing facilities for tourists that would be better spent on other public activities. Prices- Tourism leads to increases in prices of some things such as some goods and services Deery, Jago & Fredline(2006)

STUDY 4 STAKEHOLDER SUPPORT QUALITATIVE STAGE Semi-Structured interviews Key stakeholders in bid Questions formulated on data generated from Studies 1-3 The final study will be a qualitatitave study of key stakeholders who would be key players in the decision making process of bidding for the Commonwealth Games. It will be semi-structured, with questions formulated based on the data generated from the previous 3 studies.

Descriptive & Inferential Statistics (GLM) Analysis STUDY 1-3 STUDY 4 Quantitative Qualitative Descriptive & Inferential Statistics (GLM) Thematic Analysis Descriptive and inferential statistics will be used to analyse the quantitative data, and thematic analysis will be used to analyse the interviews in study 4.

Thank you Mel Johnston Doctoral Candidate mjohnston3@unitec.ac.nz