Assessing the Criticality of Metals Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies Assessing the Criticality of Metals Thomas E. Graedel Yale University

Metal Life Cycles

IMPORT/EXPORT ENVIRONMENT ORE PROCESS - ING FABRICA TION USE WASTE MGT. DISCARD STAF Project © Yale University 2004

Building Multilevel Materials Cycles European countries Planet Earth Asian countries Other countries Nine regions © STAF Project, Yale University 2005

Metals Investigated by the STAF Project Status is as of July, 2006

South Africa Chromium Cycle: One Year Stocks and Flows, 2000 Import/Export Ore, Concentrate 289 FeCr 1129 Semis 73 Products 4.9 IW 26 HW 3.2 105 Old Scrap 8.5 11 FeCr Production F&M Use Waste Management & Recycling 210 Products Discards Chem 20 20 4.3 Ref 16 1.9 Stock Ore 2,156 Metals from Slag 36 Landfill, Dissipated FeCr Slag 268 Downgraded Scrap 9.6 Prompt 6.9 Old Scrap 10 Tailings 263 15 Ore Environment © STAF Project, Yale University, 2007 Gg Cr/yr FeCr = ferrochromium; IW = industrial waste; HW = hazardous waste; Ref = refractories

Japan Chromium Cycle: One Year Stocks and Flows, 2000 Import/Export Ore, Concentrate 146 FeCr 441 Products 36 IW 71 HW 5.4 Semis 155 117 Old Scrap 24 24 FeCr Production Fabrication & Manufacturing Use Waste Management & Recycling 521 Products Discards Chem 15 400 76 324 Ref 11 Stock Downgraded Scrap 106 Landfill, Waste, Dissipated FeCr Slag 16 Prompt 73 Old Scrap 109 67 Ore Environment © STAF Project, Yale University, 2007 Gg Cr/yr FeCr = ferrochromium; IW = industrial waste; HW = hazardous waste; Ref = refractories

METAL SPECTRA Understanding how countries use the “suite” of metals We don’t usually use metals one at a time. How can we explore metals as a group?

Database Construction Choose the metals. We selected seven: zinc, chromium, copper, iron, lead, nickel, and silver Assemble data in a consistent format across the cycles Choose a common set of countries. Our set contains data on 49 Normalize the data in some fashion, so that iron flows do not overwhelm other flows. We normalized to per capita global average flows into use Carry out integrated analyses

Constructing the Metal Use Index f is the metal flow into use, P is population, j is the country index, k the metal index, and g refers to global values

Country by Country Metal Use (2000) © STAF Project, Yale University, 2010

Turkey’s Metal Spectrum Fe Cu Zn Cr Pb Ni Ag log ψj,k © STAF Project, Yale University, 2010

A Sampling of Metal Spectra China Brazil Chile Germany India Egypt Yale University, 2010 © STAF Project, Kenya Mexico Japan New Zealand Singapore USA

Use Index as a Function of GDP

Resource Sustainability and the Issue of Criticality In 2007, a committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences was asked to address the issue of resource sustainability.

The Criticality Matrix and the “Region of Danger” High Region of Danger Impact of Supply Restriction A product designer or long-term purchaser should try to avoid materials that have both high supply risk and for which the impact of supply restriction would be high. The committee referred to this region as the “region of danger”. Low Low High Supply Risk

The Yale Criticality Project Funding: US National Science Foundation and several corporations and organizations In 2007, a committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences was asked to address the issue of resource sustainability.

Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical”

Key Questions to be Answered What components should be included? How can the inclusion of these components be justified? How can these components be evaluated? How should the component evaluations be aggregated?

Supply Risk (Horizontal Axis) National & Corporate Assessment Factors Components (Mine production-weighted) Supply Risk Geological, Technological, Economic Considerations ⅓ DRAFT Expanded Time to Depletion 100 - τD 1 100 - PPI Policy Potential Index ½ Social & Regulatory Considerations ⅓ ½ Human Development Index 100 - EPI Yale University, 2010 © STAF Project, Geopolitical Considerations ⅓ ½ Political Instability Index 10 PII ½ Global Mining Concentration HHI0.5 Weight Weight Trans.

Restrictive mining policies decrease availability Fraser Institute – Policy Potential Index 2008/09 Policy Potential Index Examines policy-related dimensions that contribute to a jurisdiction's overall attractiveness and its ability to attract exploration investment Categories include: Regulations Taxation Infrastructure Labor Security 20 40 50 30 60 80 90 100 70 10 Transformed Score Scale McMahon, F., Cervantes, M. “Survey of Mining Companies 2008/2009”. Fraser Institute Annual. 2009. Subscript “j” indicates country Subscript “i” indicates metal Superscript “Trans.” Indicates the transformed value PPI indicates the PPI score for country “j” W indicates % of annual of annual mining production of metal “i” for country “j” Yale University, 2010 © STAF Project, Expanded Time to Depletion Environmental Sustainability Index Policy Potential Index Political Instability Index Global Mining Concentration

Vulnerability (Corporate Vertical Axis) Components Factors (per end-use application) Vulnerability Importance ⅓ % of Impacted Revenue ⅓ Ability to Pass-through Costs ⅓ DRAFT Importance to Corporate Strategy ⅓ Substitutability ⅓ Substitute Performance ¼ Substitute Availability ¼ Environmental Impact Ratio ¼ Yale University, 2010 © STAF Project, Price Ratio ¼ Ability to Innovate ⅓ Ability to Innovate 1 Weight Weight

The Three-Axis Criticality Evaluation Concept EI © STAF Project, Yale University, 2010

Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical” Year 2: Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metals

Goals of the Yale Criticality Project Year 1: Developing a defendable and workable methodology for evaluating the degree to which a metal is “critical” Year 2: Using the methodology, evaluate the criticality of a number of different metals Year 3: Create a family of scenarios to study the possible evolution of metal criticality

Summary Metal cycles reveal opportunities and challenges invisible to those who know only mining or recycling If countries use more per person of anything, they do so for everything A metal’s critical nature is complex and dynamic, but detailed, defendable evaluations should be available in mid to late 2011