Building Blocks of Research Process Chapter 2: Alan Monroe

Theories, Hypotheses, and Operational Definitions (17) Theory It is a set of empirical generalizations about a topic. It is too general to test since it makes statements about the relationship between abstract concepts. To test a theory, it has to be brought down to more specific terms. (17) Hypotheses This is done by testing hypotheses, which is an empirical statement derived from a theory. They are statements about variables.

Theories, Hypotheses, and Operational Definitions (17) Variables: (19) They are empirical properties that can take on two or more different values. Operational Definition But even variables are not specific enough. Each variable in a hypothesis must have an operational definition, that is, a set of directions as to how the variable is to be observed and measured.

Types of Hypotheses (19) Univariate: making a statement about only one property or variable. (19) Multivariate: a statement about how two or more variables are related. Most hypotheses are multivariate and Directional, that is, they suggest not only how the variables are related but what the direction of the relationship is. (19)

Types of Hypotheses (19) Types of Directional Relationships: Positive/Negative Positive: variables move in the same direction: as income rises, so does voting Negative (or Inverse): Variables move in opposite directions: as income rises, homelessness drops.

Theoretical Role (20) In most multivariate hypotheses, each variable takes on a particular theoretical role. Independent Variable: the cause of something Dependent Variable: the effect It is not always easy to determine the IV and DV. Control Variables: when they are used the intent is to ensure their effects are excluded. Variables are property of the unit of analysis: the objects that the hypothesis describes.

Units of Analysis (22) Two common Units of Analysis: (26) Individuals: indicates either people in general, or a specific type of person (elected official, union member, etc). It can also refer to institutions, such as interest groups, corporations, political parties. What you are doing is looking at how an “individual” unit, a person, a party is behaving. Polls are the best source of data on people in general, whereas their can be other sources of data on specific classes of individuals. (26) Groups: analyze group behavior, such as performance on some test. You don’t go down to the individual. How did Democratic state legislators vote on a particular issue, as a group? You use aggregates, as opposed to individual data points. It is not always easy to determine the unit of analysis. Yet the choice of which unit to use is extremely important. (22)

Ecological Fallacy: (22-23) Ecological Fallacy erroneously drawing conclusions about individuals from groups. Solution: only draw conclusion about the units of analysis from which the data is actually drawn. Example of Ecological Fallacy: Afro-Americans and Wallace Student found a strong positive (directional) relationship between proportion of a county that was Afro-American and those that voted for George Wallace and assumed Afro-Americans voted for Wallace. (22-23) In fact, virtually no minorities supported Wallace. All the student really could say is that counties with a high number of Afro-Americans voted for Wallace. The county, not Afro-Americans was the unit of analysis.

Operational Definitions (25) Testing a hypothesis requires precise operational definitions specifying how each Variable will be measured. If a variable cannot be operationally defined, it cannot be measured. Operational Definitions: Two Requirements: 1) It must specify what we want to know 2) And where (or how) we will get that information. Example: Say we want to examine ethnic diversity in Boston: What we want is how people in Boston identify ethnically, and how we would get it would be to look at the most recent US census data on Boston.

EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18) Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2 Hypothesis: Variable 1 is related to Variable 2 Operational Definition: Theory: economic development is related to political development Hypothesis: The more industrialized a nation, the greater the level of mass political participation. Operational Definition: The higher percentage of manufacturing jobs, as measured by United Nations Yearbook, the higher the percentage of people who voted in the last national election, according to the Stateman’s Yearbook. …

EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18) Theory: Economic status effects political participation. Hypothesis: The higher a person’s income, the more likely they are to vote Operational Definition: The higher someone’s income is, as determined by a poll, the more likely they are to say they vote, on the same poll. …

Examples of Units of Analysis and IV and DV: Hypothesis: The better the state of the economy, the greater the proportion of votes received by the party of the president. Independent Variable: State of the Economy Dependent Variable: proportion of votes Unit of Analysis: Elections Hypothesis: The more negative the advertising in a Senatorial campaign, the lower the turnout rate. Independent Variable: negativity of ads Dependent Variable: turnout Unit of Analysis: US states (elections)

Hypothesis: Media attention is necessary for a candidate to succeed in a primary election. Independent Variable: media attention Dependent Variable: electoral success Unit of Analysis: elections Hypothesis: Southern states have less party competition than Northern states. Independent Variable: region Dependent Variable: party competition Unit of Analysis: states

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2 Hypothesis: Variable 1 (IV) is related to Variable 2 (DV) Operational Definition: IV: Definition of Cause DV: Definition of Effect

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Inequality and Democracy Hypothesis: Inequality (IV) adversely effects Democracy (DV). Operational Definitions: IV: (Inequality): Income Levels DV: (Democracy): Voting IV: (Inequality): Political Contributions DV: (Democracy): Representation IV: (Inequality): Racial Density of City DV: (Democracy): Rate of Government Response

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: SSM and 2004 Election Hypothesis: State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV). Operational Definitions: IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot DV: (Bush Reelection): Republican Voting % by state Selection Bias: Variation on DV DV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Voting % by state with Ban DV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Voting % by state without Ban

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: US Culture and Foreign Policy Hypothesis: A Culture of Unilateralism (IV) shapes US Foreign Policy (DV). Operational Definitions: IV: (Unilateralism): Policy/Rhetoric of White House DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq Selection Bias: Variation on DV DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Women and Politics Hypothesis: Gender (IV) had a defining effect on Nancy Pelosi’s election as Speaker of the House of Representatives. (DV). Operational Definitions: IV: (Gender): Gender of Candidate DV: (Leadership): Likelihood Women are Elected as a Leader.

Topic: Inequality and Democracy Essay Outlines: Introduction: Topic: Inequality and Democracy Question: How does Inequality affect Democracy? Thesis: (Hypothesis): Inequality (IV) adversely effects Democracy (DV). Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: IV: (Inequality): Racial Density of City DV: (Democracy): Rate of Government Response

Essay Outlines: Introduction: Topic: SSM and 2004 Election Question: How did State bans on SSM impact the Bush’s reelection? Thesis: (Hypothesis): State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV). Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot DV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Voting % by state with Ban DV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Voting % by state without Ban

Essay Outlines: Introduction: Topic: US Culture and Foreign Policy Question: Is a Culture of Unilateralism shaping US Foreign Policy? Thesis: (Hypothesis): A Culture of Unilateralism (IV) is shapes US Foreign Policy (DV). Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: IV: (Unilateralism): Policy/Rhetoric of White House DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan