Climate Service Needs Michel Rixen mrixen@wmo.int www.gfcs-climate.org/

Vision Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change, through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice on the global, regional and national scale Energy The GFCS had initially identified four priority areas. At the last Congress of the WMO, Energy was added as the fifth priority considering its role in enabling the other priority areas, but also the potential of renewable energy which considerably benefits from climate services to contribute to a low carbon development path.

Pillars of the GFCS The five GFCS pillars are as follows: 1. The User Interface Platform — to provide ways for climate service users and providers to interact to identify needs and capacities and improve the effectiveness of the Framework and its climate services; 2. The Climate Services Information System — to produce and distribute climate data, products and information according to the needs of users and to agreed standards; 3. Observations and Monitoring – to generate the necessary data for climate services according to agreed standards; 4.. Research, Modeling and Prediction — to harness science capabilities and results and develop appropriate tools to meet the needs of climate services; 5. Capacity Building — to support the systematic development of the institutions, infrastructure and human resources needed for effective climate services. To address the entire value chain for the effective production and application of climate services, the above five main functional components or pillars of the GFCS need to be in place. 3 Weather • Climate • Water 3

Domains of operation of GFCS Global Regional National The GFCS has three levels of operation: Global Level, where Global Producing Centres generate NWP products that are made available to Regional Climate Centres and NMHSs on the basis of which forecasts and services are generated. There are currently 12 centres Regional Level, where Regional Climate Centre (RCC)post process data and products generated by Global Producing Cantres and make them available to NMHs. A few RCC such as Beijing, Tokio, ACMAD and CIIFEN have bee designated regional climate centres under the GFCS. Other are undergoing a demonstration phase to ascertain their ability to perform the mandatory tasks of a RCC. NMHSs and other institutions who at the national level tailor data and products into information products and services to meet user needs. Local Weather • Climate • Water 4

                                             PAC Membership The GFCS enables partners to work together in an interdisciplinary manner, allowing coordination, synergies and linkage of various initiatives that contribute to climate services. Through the Partners Advisory Committee partners have agreed to showcase the benefits of collaboration in 6 countries (Burkina Faso, Bhutan, Dominica, Moldova, Papua New Guinea and Tanzania) with a view to build a Proof of Concept that would enable scaling up of activities in various parts of the world. While collaboration of partners will be demonstrated in these 6 countries, the GFCS activities cover a wider geographical foot print that these countries. Collaboration is being demonstrated in Malawi and Tanzania where for the first time 7 partners (CCAFS, CICERO, CHR Michelsen Institute, WFP, WHO, IFRC, WMO) are working together to deliver climate services for DRR, health and agriculture and food security under the GFCS Adaptation Programme in Africa. Joint Offices were established with WHO, WFP and the Global Water partnership to advance implementation of the health, agriculture and food security and water priorities of the GFCS. Weather • Climate • Water

Climate information needs of users and related knowledge gaps Decision-making process and user information gaps Climate Research Frontier Strategic ahead-of-season planning (1- 12 month lead time) Improving Seasonal prediction Remote drivers of variability (SSTs, teleconnections, MJO, etc) Local drivers of variability( land-atmosphere coupling) 1 1 Risk monitoring and management: intra-season operations (1wk to 40 days range) - timing/duration/intensity of dry/ wet spells 2 2 Sub-seasonal prediction Improved understanding of sources of sub-seasonal predictability 3 3 Decadal prediction Drivers of decadal and multi-decadal variability Role of GHG, aerosols Longer-term strategic planning/policy development (next 1-10 years) - Trends/frequencies of rainfall/temperature over next 5-10 years   4 Climate change adaptation policy development/planning (next 50 years) - Robust climate change projections - Information on the role of climate change in observed events 4 Climate change scenarios Earth System Modelling Attribution methodology Understanding Uncertainty

Climate information needs for end users and related knowledge gaps Decision-making process and end-user information gaps Climate Research Frontier Assessing current vulnerability due to recent climate events Lack of ‘impacts’ datasets (e.g. crop yields, river flows, health/hospital admission statistics) to aid development and targeting of applications models 5 5 Observation / database development Enhancing the observations network for both biophysical and socio-economic climate variables; 6 Decision making at local scales Detailed climate services (geographically) 6 Downscaling understanding and improvement of the downscaling process quantification of benefits and uncertainties to users 7 Estimation of the impacts of climate variability and change 7 Applications modelling Improved understanding/ modeling of climate impacts on hydrology, food security and crop yields, health 8 Mainstreaming climate services for all timescales 8 Communication and climate service provider/user interactions Improving availability/usability of services strategies for bridging the gap between service providers and end users

Opportunity The Partners Advisory Committee partners have agreed to showcase in 6 countries (Burkina Faso, Bhutan, Dominica, Moldova, Papua New Guinea and Tanzania), Proof of Concept for scaling up (+Columbia, Peru?) Collaboration being demonstrated in Malawi and Tanzania, 7 partners (CCAFS, CICERO, CHR Michelsen Institute, WFP, WHO, IFRC, WMO) under the GFCS Adaptation Programme in Africa. Joint Offices were established with WHO, WFP and the Global Water Partnership to advance implementation of the health, agriculture and food security, and water priorities

GFCS partners are ready to try new products, e.g decadal predictions Key issues GFCS partners are ready to try new products, e.g decadal predictions What products in the research and experimental mode could be tested in the five priority areas? What needs to be in place for transitioning research & experimental products into field testing? WFP interest Timeframe? Requirements? Dissemination?

Thank you for your attention www.gfcs-climate.org