Climate Change in China: Impacts and adaptation Prof Lin Erda lined@ami.ac.cn Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Declan Conway, UEA d.conway@uea.ac.uk Defra-DFID China-UK collaboration Reading July 29th, 2008 Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Achievements in Phase I (2001-04) Climate Change Scenarios Temperature to increase by 3~4℃ and rainfall to increase 10~12% by 2080s   2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 Crop Yield Changes Yields of rice, maize and wheat to change significantly in the next 80 years - without any adaptations Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Phase II (2005-08) Aims: Improvements to national modeling of climate impacts Ningxia case study: Integrated assessment for adaptation policy making Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

New results from Phase II Integrating climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios Climate Change; CO2 fertilization effects; Water Availability; Agricultural land conversion; All drivers together Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

IMPACTS ON CROP YIELDS, WATER AVAILABILITY, AND ARABLE LAND CLIMATE SCENARIOS EFFECTS OF CO2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS  T,  P,  R No, A2, B2 GDP, Pop., Water demand, Land use ADAPTATION POLICIES Improvements in Agric. Tech. IMPACTS ON CROP YIELDS, WATER AVAILABILITY, AND ARABLE LAND Land use change policies IMPACTS ON TOTAL PRODUCTION Water allocation policies Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

17 GCMs from IPCC and PRECIS (A2 emissions) Annual change in temperature and rainfall for China: 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s 17 GCMs from IPCC and PRECIS (A2 emissions) Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers Climate Change With CO2 Climate Change With CO2 and water Only Climate Change All drivers Climate Change With Water Climate Change Water & Land Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Changes in cereal production per capita under combinations of drivers Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

The effect of adaptation strategies on cereal production per capita Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

China Case Study: Regional Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Ningxia CDM service centre Ningxia Meteorological Bureau Prof Lin Erda lined@ami.ac.cn Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Declan Conway, UEA d.conway@uea.ac.uk Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west China Semi-arid to arid – high levels of rural poverty Range of different farming systems Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Ningxia regional Integrated Assessment – objectives Research impacts and vulnerability in the agricultural sector To help develop the capacity to plan for and respond to a changing climate in China and Ningxia Design a regional adaptation framework and strategy for Ningxia Awareness raising, dissemination and engagement Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Adaptation guidelines for Ningxia Technical report User-friendly report for decision-makers consisting of three separate sections Short presentation of an ‘adaptation framework’ Explanation of how to apply the framework, experience from Ningxia An example of an adaptation strategy for the agricultural sector in Ningxia Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

An adaptation framework for Ningxia Working with UKCIP 3 Identify adaptation options 1 Assess climate risks 2 Integrate development and adaptation goals 4 Prioritise options New knowledge/ research 6 Monitoring and evaluation 5 Implementation Adaptation as a process Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Table 1. Recent climate variability and extremes in Ningxia Climate factor Evidence of local impacts Recent warming: Minimum and maximum temperatures have warmed, particularly since the 1980s Positive impacts include winter wheat has migration northward, harvest time has increased, frost free days have increased, and cold and frost disasters have decreased. Rainfall: long-term variability has been fairly modest and is similar across the whole region. [Some larger monthly and sub-regional trends] Of all three agro-ecosystems surveyed, drought is the most recognized meteorological disaster, especially in the middle arid area and southern rainfed mountainous area. Most respondents in the middle arid area believe that it has become increasingly difficult to acquire drinking water. Major drought 2004-06: Rainfall lowest on record in some areas Observations and local experience support an increased frequency and intensity of droughts with negative impacts on livelihoods. Crop failure experienced in some areas, significant economic impacts, especially in central area Some farmers, who depend on rainwater collection cellars, have to buy water in the drought period. Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Rural livelihoods and vulnerability to climate hazards in Ningxia Questionnaires and discussions with farmers Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Main effects, short and long term Confidence in scenario Table 2. Future climate change and key risks and opportunities in Ningxia Climate factor Main effects, short and long term Confidence in scenario Continued warming, e.g. max temperatures increase with B2 and A2; 2020s 1.6, 1.8°C 2050s 2.6, 3.6°C Benefits from longer growing season Possible negative impacts of extreme temperatures on yield Change in frequency and distribution of pests and disease High confidence, all models show warming at fairly similar rates Medium confidence in secondary impacts (CO2 fertilisation critical) Rainfall trends: moderate increase overall (drier in summer, wetter in spring); 2020s +3%, +5% 2050s +4%, +8% Moderate impacts on water availability and soil moisture. Impacts will depend on seasonal timing of changes High-medium confidence, all models show increase in rainfall but seasonal changes less clear Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation Consider establishment of a cross-departmental group on adaptation within regional government Raising awareness on climate change trends, potential impacts and adaptation activities across the region Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

High Improvements in early warning Table 6. Examples of priority adaptations Sector / Risk or opportunity Risk priority Possible high level adaptations Respon-sible stake-holder(s) Adapt. priority Northern Ningxia RISK: Change in Yellow River flows High Improvements in early warning Improvements in intra-regional (and sectoral) allocation of water Yellow River Comm. Ningxia Water Resource Dept. Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Some reflections on Phase II Challenges: Uncertainty about the detail of CC remains high – need for research to reduce uncertainties flexibility / adaptive management Time scales beyond horizons of stakeholders Other socio-economic changes more significant (population, economic growth) Modelling impacts can become very complex and time consuming (CO2 fertilisation, model sensitivity, etc.) Climate science Seasonal forecasting / Decadal variability (causes of droughts) Improved understanding of CO2-crop water use-land cover interactions Better understanding of extremes (projections and impacts) Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Some reflections on Phase II Methods: Consultation essential – need good understanding of current sensitivity, vulnerability and capacity to adapt Impacts assessment – can be very technical/time consuming – keep simple Embed CC concerns within existing management systems and processes No blueprints for adaptation, need to invest time on communication and awareness raising, especially at provincial level Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Some reflections on Phase II Opportunities: Recent extremes may highlight current sensitivity and vulnerability (and effective responses) Concern about CC may be quite high Many existing options often already present – ‘no regrets’ [CC often exacerbates existing problems] Entry points likely to be dealing with existing ‘adaptation gap’: better management of climate hazards Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

Thank you Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008