Seasonal Forecasts for Fisheries Applications September 15, 2017 NMME/SubX Science Meeting, college park Desiree Tommasi, NOAA SWFSC With Many thanks to charlie Stock, Mike alexander, Gaelle Hervieux, Mike Jacox, Gabe Vecchi, Liwei jia, alistair hobday, kathy pegion and many others

Outline The need for S2S climate predictions – a fisheries prospective Overview of seasonal SST forecast skill at a fishery relevant scale Pacific sardine case study Future research needs GFDL applications have largely been large scale – global, centennial scale, but most fisheries management decisions made on shorter inter-annual to decadal time scalesseasonal to interannual scale important for fisheries application

Climate variability affects fish dynamics YEARS BIOMASS (106 METRIC TONS) Climate change, climate variability Baumgartner et al. 1992

The demise of cannery row Maintenance of high fishing rates during climate-induced reductions in productivity can lead to stock collapse. How can we anticipate shifts in productivity? Photos courtesy of the city of Monterey

In Maine, More Lobsters Than They Know What to Do With Price down to a 40-year low New York Times, June 2012 Oyster 2008 Columbia River 2015, Maine 2012, Taiwan2008 la nina, anomalous strong northeasterly winds drove the cold China coastal current southewards into the Taiwan Strait http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/29/us/in-maine-fishermen-struggle-with-glut-of-lobsters.html?mcubz=3

West coast fisheries hit hard by poor ocean conditions Oregon Public Broadcasting News , October 2016 $110 million loss for crab fishery Columbia River 2015, Maine 2012, Taiwan2008 la nina, anomalous strong northeasterly winds drove the cold China coastal current southewards into the Taiwan Strait http://www.opb.org/news/article/west-coast-fisheries-hit-hard-by-poor-ocean-conditions/

Scales of Marine Ecosystems Decisions S2S Industry Feed cycles Aerators Farm maintenance Extreme weather responses Stocking/harvest time Quota purchases Labor and gear needs Equipment purchase Where/when/what to fish for Management Beach closures (e.g. HAB’s, jellies) Fisheries closures to reduce unwanted and incidental capture Provision of catch advice Tommasi et al., 2017; Progress in Oceanography

Can incorporation of S2S predictions make management more effective? For species that strongly respond to climate variability

Are S2S predictions skillful at the temporal and spatial scales at which fish operate and are managed? For species that strongly respond to climate variability

Large Marine Ecosystems produce 80% of global annual fish catch coherent ocean areas along continental margins whose ecological systems have similar bathymetry, hydrography, and biological productivity

Monthly SST Anomaly Forecast Skill in the California Current LME NMME Ensemble Mean Persistence Based on the Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for SST anomalies from hindcasts during 1982- 2009 Lead time (months) GCMs have skill in predicting SSTs but varies widely by region, e.g. Gulf of Alaska & California Current reasonably good Southeast and northeast US not so much Initialization month Stock et al., 2015; Progress in Oceanography; Hervieux et al., 2017; Climate Dynamics; Jacox et al., 2017; Climate Dynamics

Brier Skill Score of Probabilistic SST Hindcasts Model LME LME Hervieux et al., 2017; Climate Dynamics

Skillful SST seasonal prediction at a fishery relevant scale Can incorporation of seasonal climate forecasts make marine ecosystems decisions more effective? For species that strongly respond to climate variability

Pacific sardine recruitment depends on SST Recruitment Anomaly Climate variability drives fluctuations in abundance (Baumgartner et al. 1992, Lindegren et al. 2013) Robust recruitment-SST relationship (Lindegren and Checkley 2013) SST used to set Emsy in current harvest guideline (Hill et al. 2014) SST Lindegren and Checkley, 2013; Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Improved Management through seasonal climate Predictions Environmental Considerations Skillful SST forecast generated higher stock biomass and yield Lower risk of collapse if combined with existing harvest cutoff Tommasi et al., 2017; Ecological Applications

Other current applications of seasonal forecasts in marine ecosystems decisions Dynamic spatial management of the Australian east coast tuna fishery, Hobday et al. 2011 Coral reef management, Spillman et al. 2011, Eakin et al. 2012 Prawn or salmon aquaculture farm management in Australia, Spillman et al. 2014, Spillman et al. 2015 Economic efficiency of Great Australian Bight tuna fishery, Eveson et al. 2015 Operational planning of the Maine lobster fishery (statistical forecast), Mills et al. in preparation Control of illegal tuna fisheries in Indonesia, Gehlen et al. 2015 Sardine spatial distribution, Kaplan et al. 2016, Siedlecki et al. 2016 Tommasi et al., 2017; Progress in Oceanography

Future Research Needs Reduction in climate model bias through improvements in model formulation and initialization Improvements in model physics, parametrizations, assimilation

Future Research Needs Verify predictability of ecosystem relevant variables at decision relevant scales beyond SST In hot water: Columbia's sockeye salmon face mass die-off Warm water temperatures have made life 'grim' for sockeye salmon in the Pacific Northwest

Future Research Needs Verify predictability of ecosystem relevant variables at the subseasonal scale S2S

Future Research Needs Accuracy of probabilistic forecast for maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, and rainfall in Queensland, Australia Develop and verify probabilistic forecasts of ecosystem relevant variables The skill score corresponds to the ratio of the number of correct forecasts to the total number of forecasts for the period of 1981-2010. Spillman et al. 2015

Future Research Develop biogeochemical prediction capabilities SEACHANGE Oyster dying as coast is hit hard A Washington family opens a hatchery in Hawaii to escape lethal waters.

Future Research Unresolved local processes can limit predictability of ecosystem relevant variables 1o ocean 1/4o ocean Unresolved local processes significantly modify large-scale warming trends 1/10o ocean Saba et al., JGR, 2016

Future Research Improve climate predictability at LMR-relevant regional scales through higher resolution global prediction systems 1o ocean 1/4o ocean Find CM FLOR slide 1/10o ocean Saba et al., JGR, 2016

Future Research Improve climate predictability at LMR-relevant regional scales through the development of downscaling frameworks Find CM FLOR slide Siedlecki et al., 2016; Scientific Reports

Thank you! desiree.tommasi@noaa.gov