(To be edited by Dr Raji Reddy’s Group) VIEW GRAPHS BY PRS RAO (To be edited by Dr Raji Reddy’s Group)

CLIMATE RISK- SEMI ARID VILLAGE AT MEHABUBNAGAR CROP (Specific) - RAINFED MAIZE, RAINFED Bt.COTTON LIVESTOCK (Specific) - SHEEP RISK MGT AT FAMILY LEVEL – LIVELIHOOD PERSPECTIVE COMMUNITY LEVEL GOVERNMENT AND BANK VARIABILITY OF RISK AT FARM SCALE – IN TIME AND SPACE LIVELIHOOD OPTIONS COMBINATION OF ENTERPRISES

CROP YIELD SCENERIO at study village NORMAL YIELD kg/ha GOOD YEILD kg/ha YEARS POOR YEILD kg/ha BEST YEILD kg/ha Maize Red 3,750 Black-5,000 Red 5,000 Black-7,500 2000,1998, 2007 Red 1,250 Black-2,500 2001,2002, 2003, 1997 15,000 (Black) Bt. Cotton 1750 2500 2007 500 2008 3000

Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost Decision on Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost Additional benefit (correct choice) Penalty (Wrong choice) Choice of crop- maize or cotton? Seasonal total. Long dry spell timing Before sowing None 30-60% higher yield Lose benefit Best sowing window in – June 1 wk to Aug 1 wk Distribution of wet/dry spells, Crop simulation runs 20-80 % higher yield Lose benefit / can not sow the crop Moisture stress management for the crop Dry spell at silk formation stage (60-70 das) 7-10 days ahead Irrigation Cost Aphids management Wet spells in Vegetative growth, silk formation Plant protection 10-30% higher yield

Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost Decision on Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost Additional benefit (correct choice) Penalty (Wrong choice) Timing and number of top dressing Wet spells in Vegetative growth, silk formation 2-3 weeks ahead None 10-30% higher yield Inefficient use, loss of benefit Management of water logging, Downy mildew and wilt in Black soils Long wet spells in Vegetative growth, silk formation 4-7 days ahead Drainage, Plant protection, micro nutrients 20-40% higher yield Cost / Loss of benefit

Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost Cotton Decision on Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost Additional benefit (for correct choice) Penalty (for Wrong choice) Best sowing window in – May 4th wk to June 4th wk Distribution of wet/dry spells, Crop simulation runs Before sowing None 20-80 % higher yield Lose benefit / can not sow the crop Moisture stress management for the crop Dry spell at boll formation stage (90-120 das) 7-10 days ahead Irrigation 30-60% higher yield Cost / loss of benefit Thrips management Dry spells at Veg. & boll form stage Plant protection 10-40% higher yield Mealy bug management Not clear

Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost Cotton Decision on Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost Additional benefit (for correct choice) Penalty (for Wrong choice) Aphids management Wet spells in Vegetative growth, boll formation 7-10 days ahead Plant protection 10-40% higher yield Cost/ Loose benefit Timing and number of top dressing 2-3 weeks ahead None 10-30% higher yield Inefficient use, loss of benefit Management of water logging, and wilt in Black soils Long wet spells in Vegetative growth, boll formation 4-7 days ahead Drainage, Plant protection, micro nutrients 20-40% higher yield Cost / Loose benefit

CROP -TOTAL CLIMATE RISK COMPONENT From end to end- Land preparation, crop sowing TO Harvest and post harvest operations Consider both Direct impact- by moisture stress, water logging and on Crop physiology Indirect impact – by triggering rapid increase of pests, diseases and vector populations that are already endemic. In any particular year a partiuclar combination of such ‘adverse events’ would occur It is possible to construct simple models for such climate impact by using Existing literature Expert knowledge of farmers, field researchers

NOTE All further slides refer to Rainfed groundnut at Anantpur These are illustrative of methodology similar questions (to the ones mentioned here) were asked by farmers in the study village.

Plot level- Profit / loss is rain+ many others

At plot level- Yield variation and rain- relationship is much weaker than EXPECTED

Simple model for Rainfed Groundnut At Anantpur- an example

Climate – Direct impact

Climate- indirect impact

TOTAL CLIMATE RISK FOR GROUNDNUT CROP

Validation of Model Prediction and Field data

Crop model Validation with observed yield

Anantpur District average groundnut yield- (1975-1995) - Avg rain-47 cm Cost of Cultivation

Optimal sowing window Frequently asked question No additional cost, but very high benefit for correct choice but, high penalty for wrong choice Need long term daily rainfall, crop simulation model, soil data, crop management data Simple model on pest and diseases would be desirable (Indirect impact of climate)

Recent shift in cropping patterns- Lack of experience of optimal sowing windows

PUNTGRO- Year wise yield at different sowing dates

PUNTGRO- Year wise yield at different sowing dates

Low chance of crop failure? – sow late

Best chances of High yields? – sow late

High chance of Moisture stress at Pod filling (60-85 days after sowing)

Low chance of Moisture stress at Pod filling (60-85 days after sowing)

Chance of leaf miner incidence v/s sowing date

Chance of Late leaf spot v/s sowing date

Community level Livelihood options at 3 villages of Anantpur

6 villages in Anantpur region Located in 3 separate Mandals, distributed in an area of about 4000 sq km Data from Marginal and small farmers, Vulnerable sections to climate risk Sample of 20-40% of the total families in the community Family wise data collection from 2005 to 2008

Family wise Annual income distribution- 6 villages

Family wise Cattle population in 6 villages.

Family wise sheep and Goat income- 6 villages

How much credit?

Reasons for first debt ? – crop (during bad year), bore wells, sheep are the big reasons

Govt. programs as a safety net

CPRs as the safety net

Highest number of animals not with the largest of farms

Mid size farms have the largest credit

Debt trap (3rd Default) - Reasons

To be included still RISK MGT AT For SHEEP

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