Physical and Ecological Responses of the Great Lakes to Climate Change Session organizers: Nathaniel Ostrom Department of Zoology and Biogeochemistry Environmental Research Initiative, Michigan State University Steve Colman Large Lakes Observatory University of Minnesota-Duluth Sponsors:

The Great Lakes ecosystem: a legacy of change, a future of uncertainty Nathaniel Ostrom Department of Zoology and Biogeochemistry Environmental Research Initiative, Michigan State University

Predicted Climate Trends in the Great Lakes Environment Region will become warmer and drier By 2100: Winters warmer by 3-7 oC Summers warmer by 3-11 oC Kling, G.W., K. Hayhoe, L.B. Johnson, J.J. Magnuson, S. Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J. Shuter, M.M. Wander, D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Zak, R.L. Lindroth, S.C. Moser, and M.L. Wilson (2003). Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America, Washington, D.C.

Predicted Climate Trends in the Great Lakes Environment Michigan summer will transition to one more like an Arkansas summer Migration of Climate: Winter and Summer for Michigan and Illinois Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists,

Recent Changes/Threats to Great Lakes Rising temp in Superior - approx. 1 oC/decade Reductions in Ice Cover MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC http://www.d.umn.edu/~jaustin/ICE.html

Recent Changes/Threats to Great Lakes Falling Lake Levels Historical range in Superior is 1.2 m Current drop of ~ 1 m since 1985 Economic Impacts to Shipping Transport through locks A 2 ft drop equates to 6,000 tons of coal for a 1000 ft vessel U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and MN Sea Grant

Recent Changes/Threats to Great Lakes Example of Ecosystem Change: Lake St. Clair Up to 1 m drop in lake level by 2050 22,000 ha exposed (shown in green) 28 of 43 known fish spawning sites lost (red dots) (Source: Scudder Mackey, ESPP conf 2007)

Predicted Climate Trends in the Great Lakes Environment Impacts to Fishery: reduction in ice cover likely harmful to whitefish due to reduced protection from winter storms cold water fish likely to decline invasions of warm water fish likely Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists,

Predicted Climate Trends in the Great Lakes Environment Changes to algal productivity spring bloom will occur earlier likely out of phase with zooplankton and fish communities composition likely to change from palatable diatoms to inedible blue-green algae enhanced by zebra mussel spread overall productivity expected to increase (http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/mcystisflyer/mcystis.html) Diatom: Aulocoseira sp. http://info1.ma.slu.se/climate/Images/10Biology/Aulocoseira.jpg Zebra mussel expelling Microcystisas pseudofeces. (http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/brochures/mcystisflyer/mcystis.html)

Predicted Climate Trends in the Great Lakes Environment Changes to algal productivity; Will productivity increase? Ex. Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Metabolism Shift to net autotrophy in warmer 2001 2000 2001 O2 sat d18O R/P

Recent Changes/Threats to Great Lakes Rising Nitrate in Superior and other Great Lakes Causes are not clear Shift in N cycling in coastal ecosystems: shift in primary production to blue-greens (N fixers) decrease in deposition of labile organics decrease in rates of denitrification Increase in nitrate export Great Lakes? N fixers are increasing Is this changing the N cycle? Finlay et al 2007 Ecological Applications, 17(8), 2007, pp. 2323–2332 Lane N. NATURE Vol 449 18 October 2007 778-780

Are we prepared? “… change may be inevitable. But it is not inevitable for society to be surprised or ill-prepared.” Robert Gagosian, Director and President, WHOI

NSF funding rates Source: NSF (2007) Impact of Proposal and Award Management Mechanisms

Trend Toward Large Scale Monitoring Networks: “The Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network is a collaborative effort involving more than 1800 scientists and students investigating ecological processes over long temporal and broad spatial scales” (www.lternet.edu) No Great Lakes stations

Trend Toward Large Scale Monitoring Networks: Lake Metabolism chosen as the central parameter by the Global Lakes Ecological Observing Network (GLEON) with funding by NSF - No Great Lakes Stations

Integrated Ocean Observing System “a system of systems that routinely and continuously provides quality controlled data and information on current and future states of the oceans and Great Lakes from the global scale of ocean basins to local scales of coastal ecosystems” (http://www.ocean.us/) Does include the Great Lakes Observing System

Integrated Ocean Observing System $97.7 million contract recently awarded to an academic partnership led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) to lead development of OOI to an eventual level of $331 million Role of Great Lakes in OOI not yet well delineated Recent passage of HR 2342 by House of Representatives clearly encompasses the Great Lakes

Summary: The Great Lakes Ecosystem is changing… quickly There is a strong need for a cohesive program of funding and large scale monitoring of ecosystem processes