Prediction despite Uncertainties

Figure 5.5. Contributions of different greenhouse gases 052 Figure 5.5. Contributions of different greenhouse gases to radiative forcing E.A. Mathez, 2009, Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future, Columbia University Press. Data from Forster et al., 2007

What is the C02 concentration today? 404.5

Is global warming caused by changes in solar output? Union of Concerned Scientists

Ocean surface pH projections to 2100 After Bopp et al., 2013 3.2°–5.4°C Global temperature increase likely by 2100: 0.9°–2.3°C

Potential food web impacts Coccolithophores Copepods ARCOD@ims.uaf.edu Pacific Salmon Pteropods V. Fabry Barrie Kovish Vicki Fabry

Marine Fish impacts Barrie Kovish Vicki Fabry

Pacific Northwest oyster emergency Willapa Bay seed crisis Failure of larval oyster recruitments in recent years Commercial oyster hatchery failures threatens $100M industry (3000 Jobs) Low pH “upwelled” waters a possible leading factor in failures http://www.visit.willapabay.org/graphics/north-co-grn..gif Larval oyster may be “canary in goldmine” for near-shore acidification?

Commercially important organisms

History of Atmospheric CO2 History of Atmospheric CO2 through geological time (past 550 million years: from Berner, Science, 1997). The parameter RCO2 is defined as the ratio of the mass of CO2 in the atmosphere at some time in the past to that at present (with a pre-industrial value of 300 parts per million). The heavier line joining small squares represents the best estimate of past atmospheric CO2 levels based on geochemical modeling and updated to have the effect of land plants on weathering introduced 380 to 350 million years ago. The shaded area encloses the approximate range of error of the modeling based on sensitivity analysis. Vertical bars represent independent estimates of CO2 level based on the study of ancient soils. http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/images/CO2History.html http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/images/CO2History.html

Climate impacts on nature in the news Fish Kills: Unprecedented temperature threatens marine eco-system Die off of marine mammals in Alaska Ocean Acidification slows coral reef growth (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/02/160224145558.htm) El Niño prolongs longest global coral bleaching event https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/16/this-could-explain-all-those-strange-happenings-in-alaskas-waters/? https://www.newswire.com.fj/community/fisheries/fish-kills-unprecedented-temperature-threatens-marine-eco-system/? https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/02/160224145558.htm

Example habitat ranges - American Pika Over 1/3 have already disappeared Adapted for cold/freezing mountainous habitats- As temperature rises and winter snow decreases: summer heat stress Low snow coverage reduces winter insulation/warmth Weakened state, thermal stress/earlier aging of vegetation, - vulnerable to predators Cannot migrate farther north- already at the top of mountains What would happen if this species went extinct? Image credit: http://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Sgwt5PHgt5k/U60XL-IKJ4I/AAAAAAAAFH4/dvLQsuT8uws/w1600-h1063/AmericanPika.jpg; http://www.alexmody.com/images/large/20100717_0082-2-Edit-Edit.jpg

Range shifts: Butterflies and Birds Ranges of host plants may not change at the same rate as range of flying insects or birds = diet mismatch Noticed rate of Comma’s expansion was 50 miles/decade North Ranges of host plants may not change at the same rate Chris Thomas, biologist at University of York Specialist – require specific conditions; Generalist – less picky What are Commas, given that they can move North? Thomas studied 35 generalists and found 22 moved North while 1 moved South What does this have to do with evolution? Climate change affecting environment Phenotypic Plasticity Co-evolution http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/distribution-of-animal-species-1/assessment

Timing of biological activities Bark Beetles in Western Forests Earlier snowmelt & warmer spring temperatures=annual summer drought earlier in the spring High winter temperatures- more beetle larvae survive Warmer summers- 2 generations per year; trees are drier Bark beetles burrow into trees, block nutrient flow between roots & branches Weaker defense system of tree- dryness weakens sap production flow - facilitates beetles invasion of trees Dead trees are more likely to start wildfires Trees die off - beetle infestation spreads into the Northeast This is happening in the NJ pine barrens as well as in the American west. There is a cascade of effects that makes trees much more vulerable to beetles and wildfires, it is cyclical with each one increasing the vulnerabilty to the other. Image credit: http://images.publicradio.org/content/2013/07/08/20130708_bark-beetle8_33.jpg

How do green house gases work? https://youtu.be/sTvqIijqvTg