NBA All-Star Game Prediction

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Presentation transcript:

NBA All-Star Game Prediction Pouya Fatemi Alex Wu Zinnia Horne

Why do we care? $3.57 Billion in Revenue in the ‘07-’08 season1 Games broadcasted in over 215 countries and territories 2 Fans in New York paid $74 million for tickets in the ’04-’05 season 2 1http://www.plunkettresearch.com/Industries/Sports/SportsStatistics/tabid/273/Default.aspx 2 http://www.forbes.com/2005/12/22/nba-team-valuations_cz_mo_1222nbaintro.html

Probem How can we most accurately predict the winner of the NBA All-Star Game? What is the probability distribution of the points scored by an NBA All-Star team?

Variables Pw = total points scored by Western Conference = ∑ POSi N = number of possessions per team per game POSi , discrete random variable with possible values [0,1,2,3,4] – This represents the possible number of points scored in each possession

Model Formulation Most likely outcome (mode) after a possession is to score 0 points. The next likely outcome is scoring two points. The average number of points scored is 1.0973, with a standard deviation of 1.1074.

Normal Approximated Distribution for Pw Mean = N * [E(POSi)] = 90 * 1.0973 = 98.757 Standard Deviation = (√N) * STD of POSi = (√90) * 1.1074 = 10.506 Assumption: N (# of possessions team obtains in a game = 90)

Sensitivity Analyses Relationship between # of possessions (x-axis) and expected # of points scored (y-axis). Assumed value in our model was N = 90 Relationship between percentage of 2-pointers (x-axis) and expected # of points (y-axis).

Possible Extensions Effect of momentum Treat seconds spent each possession as a random variable bounded by 0 < seconds spent <24