Presentation to SACOG Board Committees Draft Regional Growth Projections: Trends, Opportunities and Policy Implications CCSCE and SACOG Staff Presentation to SACOG Board Committees October 5, 2017

Forecast Process Key target years 2040 and 2050 Jobs first, then translate to population and HH U.S. and CA job trends drive regional opportunities Historical analysis of job trends and shares Expert panel and stakeholder input The draft forecast for your review

Summary of State & National Findings Slower growth as boomers retire and birth rates fall State job growth will slightly outpace nation because we have a competitive advantage in many fast growing sectors Immigration, trade and especially housing are key issues for the state economy

Economic Base Cluster Shares 2016

SACOG Region Share of CA Jobs (initial)

Feedback From Expert and Stakeholder Panels General agreement on U.S. forecast, some thought immigration might be lower Agreement that CA would slightly outpace U.S. in job growth rates Agreement that SACOG job forecast was likely unless things changed Did see opportunities in mega region concept as explained by BACEI representative

Revisions to First Forecast Slight upward revision to SACOG region share of professional/info service jobs Capture of some of the EV auto tech and manufacturing/supply chain jobs Possible but not included—major new state initiatives, e.g., health care, climate change, that would attract private sector jobs Also UCD, CSU Sacramento expansions

Revised Region Share of CA Jobs

Average Annual Job Growth

Policy Implications for Job Growth Housing is the key attractor—enough, affordable, in variety of locations interesting to tech workers Much faster Bay Area-SACOG train service could help And exciting programs at UCD, CSU Sacramento Capitalize on competitive advantages

Regional Housing Shortage 2007-16

Population and HH Forecasts Population growth was forecast to keep pace with job growth. The age and ethnic detail came from DOF projections for the region. The HH forecast to 2030 meets the new state housing strategy goals AND is a critical part of competing for good jobs. The forecast for 2030-50 assumes that the region has caught up with past building shortages and increases in line with population growth.

Annual Increase in HH (000s)

Regional Population Growth 2015-30 (Thousands) Age Cohort

Population Trend Implications Falling birth rates imply slow K-12 growth Major population gains in 65+ age groups as boomers age Many retire after 65 and almost all after 75 so there will be major job opening opportunities and challenges in filling them The housing, health and other needs of an aging population will hit the region full force

Questions/ Comments Reminder: Optional Board Luncheon Today from 12-1 Further time for Board input and questions Appendix charts and analysis

RHNA Issues Population forecasts (SACOG and DOF) are aligned to 2030. We do not know if HCD will use their higher HH projection or DOF’s to set the regional RHNA target next time Attracting higher job growth will push the region toward higher housing production no matter what the RHNA target is

CA Share of U. S. Selected Basic Industry Jobs

CA Share US Jobs

Share of Jobs Excluding Govt. 2016

Median Resale Home Prices

Regional Housing Permits

Regional Population (Thousands)