Green Economy di Indonesia: Sekarang dan Prospek ke depan Arief Anshory Yusuf – UNPAD Semiloka Green Economy – BAPPENAS 22 November 2011

Green economy In its simplest expression, a green economy can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive (UNEP, 2011).

Green Economy Low carbon Resource efficient Socially inclusive

Apakah ekonomi Indonesia selama ini Low carbon?

Carbon Intensity: Apakah ekonomi Indonesia low-carbon? CO2 emissions (kg per 2000 US$ of GDP) 2008 – excl. Land use change Rank 174/211 Source: WDI database

Energi Indonesia semakin kotor: Decoupling Emissions Growth (IPAT) C = carbon emissions, P = population, E = energy – C = P(Y/P)(E/Y)(C/E) = Pyec Source: Author’s calculation using EIA database

Apakah ekonomi Indonesia selama ini Resource efficient?

Resource efficiency – Natural resource depletion/GNI - 2008 Rank 150/200 Source: WDI database

Natural Wealth $ billion 1 United States 4,163 2 China 2,807 3 Russian Federation 2,506 4 India 1,959 5 Brazil 1,149 6 Canada 1,070 7 Iran, Islamic Rep. 898 8 Mexico 832 9 Indonesia 716 10 Venezuela, RB 658 11 Nigeria 513 12 Australia 464 13 United Kingdom 422 Per capita Ranking 67 Our Per capita Income, Ranking 116 Source: World Bank (2011)

Genuine Saving - %GNI 2008 Source: WDI database

Apakah ekonomi Indonesia selama ini Socially Inclusive?

Income per capita has been rising and poverty incidence (%) has been declining

Yet, inequality remains, if not increasing

Inequality may have been worse due to the problematic statistics Note: Dashed line is the re-estimated lorenz curve as described in Yusuf, Arief Anshory, (2006), On the re-assessment of inequality in Indonesia: household survey or national account?, No 200605, Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS), Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University.

The rate of reduction in number of poor people has decelerated, it is stagnant with more decent standard Note: With $2/day, Indonesia is 51%, Cameron is 51%, Ivory Coast is 49%,

200T per tahun untuk subsidi BBM+listrik Low carbon Resource efficient Socially inclusive 200T per tahun untuk subsidi BBM+listrik 50T untuk pengentasan kemiskinan Apakah cara kita mengalokasikan sumber daya sudah sejalan dengan green economy?

Apakah ekonomi kita mempunyai prospek menjadi Low carbon Resource efficient Socially inclusive Tentu saja.

We started doing important steps Mainstreaming green economy into Long term national development plan (UU no 17/2007) “the green and everlasting Indonesia” Law no 32/2009 on Environmental Protection and Management the use of economic instrument to achieve sound environmental management without sacrificing economic growth. The National Action Plan (RAN-GRK) 26%-41% GHG emissions reduction And other initiatives.

Will we succeed? Let’s hope so.

How to increase our chance You cannot manage what you cannot measure Invest in better environmental statistics Invest in capacity for environmental valuation Get the price rights Phase fuel subsidy, stop hesitating, break political barriers. Coordinate better

Sekian dan terima kasih