Where is the leading edge taking the business? HighWire Press Publishers’ Meeting 30 April 2003 Cara S. Kaufman

Top 5 factors impacting the business of scholarly publishing …and what to do

Top 5 factors impacting the business of scholarly publishing… and what to do about them Institutional v individual access Content licensing Online only Research or clinical “It’s free”

Factor 1: Individuals increasingly access content via institutional networks Low member log-ins but high member use Stress on individual and institutional circulation; member rolls Editorial impact Member impact Controlled chaos Changing pricing policies; no standards Decentralized purchasing but centralized access Negotiated licenses Changing intermediaries : content aggregators, collections reported in market research

Institutional access— what to do Critique pricing and subscription policies Explore usage-based, tiered pricing Prepare to negotiate licensing terms, pricing Establish new benchmarks for success Project revenue, ROI Standardize usage data Revisit member benefits Identify benefits beyond journal subscription Evaluate development of member-only online information services Go to your audience; be part of community Gateways, aggregators, content collections Tiered pricing models: concurrent, FTE, type of inst Break down subscriber list Prepare various revenue projection scenarios; talk to your subscribers—indiv and inst New benchmarks Start tracking key measurements, such as number of site licenses, MSL, consortia; page views, compare with previous periods Revisit member benefits if your journal tied subscriptions to membership; may not be as popular to be member if don’t need membership for journal access. Tie to CME? Clinical trials.

Factor 2: Content licensing gains prominence Content aggregators, gateways Commercial reprints Institutional site licenses Translations; international editions Fastest-growing revenue stream High margins Heavy human resource needs Impact Branding Other revenue streams, circulation Content licensing gains prominence in overall publishing program

Content licensing— what to do Content aggregation Identify players References, like journals, audience Revenue projections, costs, pricing, royalty Ensure adequate branding, marketing, sales Commercial reprints Identify potential Separate line item Custom publishing; find partner Inst site licenses Segment circulation file Set sales, unit goals Project revenue under various scenarios Program fulfillment Train customer service Translations; intl eds Identify quality players Use intl board members for quality control Ensure fair revenue sharing Count in distribution numbers Content licensing gains prominence in overall publishing program

Factor 3: Growing trend of moving paper-and-online to online only Library budget cuts, space constraints “Just in time” use Enhanced functionality of online Journal content as part of database Archive responsibility Self-service Morgan Stanley Report Hopkins: 2 year timeline to virtual Memorial Sloan Kettering: as soon as possible, now Univ Georgia: cancel print whenever online only is available Big costs—subscriptions yes, but capital/resource investment more—save shelf space, reduce staff Just in time use: researchers, clinicians (less browsing, serendipitous retrieval of information). Enhanced functionality: Want to drill down to needed information quickly, on location, in one place, at time needed. 6 or more years ago at conferences, when you’d put up a sign in booth that your journal was available online, folks would worry aloud that it wouldn’t be in print any more; then there were a couple years of acceptance that print could be easily browsed, but online would be used for archive; now individuals in droves are asking to drop print…they don’t want them lying around making them feel bad… many scholarly journals don’t lend themselves to “reading.” Database publishing: one-stop shopping talked about earlier Archive responsibility: $ crunch forcing issue

Online only—what to do Plan to unbundle print and online Identify long-term objectives Segment subscriber file Project financial impact Determine fixed costs, savings (15%, 5-19%, 27%-45%) Load costs online P&L; incremental on print Build e-marketing plan Renewals; new business Industry support (don’t give up) Preserve archive Data conversion files Technical solutions Promote self-service Editorial customization Manuscript flow Online customer service 1. Determine long-term objectives (retain print?) Segment: inst, indiv, member, non-domestic 2. Savings: 15%; 5%-19%; 27%-45% Set subscription rates to recover print losses and take into account print savings Load costs on online P&L; incremental costs on print Industry support (don’t give up) Renewals, new business (use your customers) Preserve archive Keep conversion files in ready format Participate in LOCKSS, Journal Determine fixed costs (no matter circ level) Print as add-on Impetus Time management; Web tools Customer service Updating records, renewing online Editorial Customized products; online CME Production Web-based manuscript tracking systems

Factor 4: Serving either research or clinical constituencies, or both Different information needs Researchers want seamless search and retrieval of the world’s literature (at no or low cost) to aid in their research pursuits Clinicians want to pose questions and have them answered reliably and immediately so that they can provide their patients with the best care Imperative to develop products to serve distinct needs of distinct groups Research journal: 83% nonUS members choose online only option! Clinical journal: 73% report never accessing journal online! Many journals always have had two constituent groups to serve: authors and readers (read: researchers and clinicians) Researchers—putting together puzzle; clinicians—completed puzzle

Serving researchers and clinicians—what to do Article publishing Speedy publishing Online ahead of print Collected resources Saved searches Custom e-alerts Knowledge environments Virtual journals Data supplements Clinicians Editorials Review articles Drug databases Guidelines, case mgmt Evidence-based Clinical trials Video procedures Product development Online CME Tabloids Newsletters : “magazine” features Product development Neurosurgery BMJ, NEJM (to retain advertising) (within journal)

Impact 5: “It’s free!” Online information… …is cost-free to produce Unrealistic expectations Significant investment in features, hosting Real costs of editorial development, peer-review …should be free to access Open access initiatives: Budapest, PLoS Reliance on continuing return to organization Downward pricing pressure Alternative business models Tremendous increase in barrier-free access Long-standing and pervasive ideas: Since the 1980s, scientists and librarians predicted the use of networks to disseminate information (though not the explosive growth), but nobody anticipated the range and quality of information that would be available without payment Disconnect between staff and management “Well, let’s just do it online!” Lack of appreciation for work, resources Frustration in implementing technology Getting your message out is not free

“It’s free”—what to do Educate management and customers about costs and value of info technology Periodically determine how “free” movement fits with your mission Plan for participation, or exclusion Abstracts, metadata; cross linking/searching; archive Costs: development, maintenance, opportunity Monitor music, movie industry, copyright judgments Alternative business models to offset impact Author-based; institution-based Advertising;sponsorship Subscription; pay-per-view Clinical product development Opportunity costs (PPV, author reprints v NYT)

www.kaufmanwills.com Cara S. Kaufman, Partner Alma J. Wills, Partner Kaufman-Wills Group, LLC 24 Aintree Road Baltimore, MD 21286 410 821 8035 (ph) 410 821 1654 (fax) ckaufman@bellatlantic.net www.kaufmanwills.com Selected clients Am Acad Ped Am Assoc Immunol Am Coll Cardiol Am Coll Radiol Am Soc Clin Onc ASPET ASTRO Intl Anesth Res Soc NEJM Proj Hope/Hlth Affairs Alma: former President, Periodicals Division, Williams & Wilkins Cara: former Publisher, Am Heart Assoc Jrnls, The Lancet