The Pensions Actuary 2020 Young Members Conference Keith Poulson 2 December 2003

Agenda Where have we come from ? What do we do? What will we be doing? Demise of traditional work What else can we do?

First Thoughts

First Thoughts

Where have we come from? Results less precise? More time on calcs, less on consultancy Actuary rarely questioned Very little legislation

Where have we come from? Typical work Valuations Transfer Values / Factors Sales & Purchases Scheme Design – FS!

What do we do now? Typical work Valuations Transfer Values / Factors Sales & Purchases Scheme Design – MP Accounting Disclosures

What’s changed? Far more legislation Schemes are bigger / more mature Greater computer power /spuracy Far less discretion

What will we be doing in 20 years time? Valuations TVs/ Factors S&P Accounts Scheme design 20 Years Ago   FS Now MP 2020 ? ?

Demise of traditional work Less schemes Managing those left to eventual buyout

What will the world be like in 2020? China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy The space hotel will have been open for 5 years There will be more robots than people Deep hibernation technology will allow people to hibernate for months or even years

What will the pensions world be like in 2020? Virtually no Final Salary Scheme’s open accrual Schemes predominantly invested in bonds Schemes fully funded Mortality risk will be limited

What will the pensions world be like in 2020?

Advising non FS Schemes What else can we do? Share options DC Consultancy Healthcare Advising non FS Schemes Return of DB? Communications

What to pay and when Where to invest Changes in legislation DC Consultancy Scheme DB DC Risk Taker Employer Member Advice Given What to pay and when Where to invest Changes in legislation … ?

Return of DB? Currently pensions viewed as cost Valued once gone DC risks? Demise of DB was removal of discretion ‘New’ DB will have different form

Learn from others

Barriers to other areas Competition / We do not have legislative monopoly Expense Profile Need for greater efficiency

Conclusions There are many areas we can add value but we need to: Sell ourselves Diversify Increase our profile and reputation Maintain high standards Be innovative