Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016 Possibilities to use administrative data sources for register based Census in Latvia Mr. Pēteris Veģis, Deputy Director, Social Statistics department, CSB of Latvia Ms. Maranda Behmane, Director, Social Statistics department, CSB of Latvia Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

Plan of the presentation Legal basis for the use of administrative data; Use of administrative data in the estimation of the number of population in Latvia; Administrative data sources that characterize the economic activity of the population in Latvia; A pilot project on working out the quality system of administrative data; Conclusions. Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

Legal basis for the use of administrative data The new Statistical Law is in force since January 2016: (2) A legal person governed by private law, an association of such persons or a State authority shall upon a substantiated request of the statistical institution provide data from its administrative data sources, including restricted access information needed for provision of official statistics. Data from administrative data sources of a State authority shall be provided free of charge. (4) A State authority, maintaining, planning, implementing and improving administrative data source structure and content, shall generate data so that the data meet the needs of provision of official statistics. Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

The Population Register, other administrative registers’ data. Use of administrative data in the estimation of the number of population in Latvia In 2012 the CSB worked out a new method for estimating the number of population. The method is based on: The Population Register, other administrative registers’ data. The aim of the method – to estimate the status of the actual or de facto place of residence at the beginning of the year for every resident registered (on individual level) in Latvia. As the Population and Housing Census 2011 showed a difference of 7% between Census data and Population Register it was decided in 2012 to work out a new method for estimating the annual number of population. The method is based on the Population Register and other administrative registers’ data. All registers contain personal ID numbers. Data can be merged using these ID numbers. The aim of the method is to estimate the status of the actual or de facto place of residence at the beginning of the year for every resident registered (on individual level) in Latvia. Being in any register only increase the probability of being counted as usual resident of Latvia. Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

Use of administrative data in the estimation of the number of population in Latvia (2) The Logistic regression model had been developed to evaluate the residence status. With the help of administrative register data, on each person registered within The Population Register there are more than 200 characteristic variables developed. At the beginning of 2016 43 administrative data sources are used to estimate population. This year their number will be increased with information on a person’s level on: students studying abroad; visitors of libraries; personalized e-ticket users in Riga; seamen and diplomats. http://www.csb.gov.lv/sites/default/files/dati/demstat_metodologija_eng_gala.pdf Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

Administrative data sources that characterize the economic activity of the population in Latvia Grant project: «Improvement of the use of administrative sources (ESS.VIP ADMIN WP6 Pilot studies and applications)» Objective: feasibility study on use of administrative data and information from statistical sample surveys to obtain data for the 2021 Census section on economic characteristics of population: Current activity status; Occupation; Industry (branch of economic activity); Status in employment. A base for studies: Labour Force Survey (LFS) sample for 3rd and 4th quarter 2014 and 1st and 2nd quarter 2015. Comparison of estimations based on LFS data with corresponding information available from administrative data sources. Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

Economical activity of population   Administrative data sources LFS Is the difference statistically significant? Estimates Number % Employed 884 423 53.0 887 509 53.3 Unemployed 79 350 4.8 100 820 6.1 1 Pension recipients (not currently economically active) 403 795 24.2 406 781 24.4 Capital income recipients (not currently economically active) 8 741 0.5 NA N A Secondary and tertiary students (not currently economically active) 83 013 5.0 112 336 6.7 Other 209 007 12.5 157 470 9.5 Here you can see results of comparisons between estimates on the base of Labour Force Survey and data from administrative data sources. There isn’t statistically significand difference if we look to employed people and pension recipients, but for unemployed, capital income recipients and secondary and tertiary students this difference is significant and further research is needed to make decisions how to improve the situation.

Administrative data sources that characterize the economic activity of the population in Latvia (2) Current activity status Economically active population (age 15+) Employed persons: In total data about 96% of employed persons found in administrative data sources. Some possible overcoverage should be evaluated. State Revenue Service (SRS) contains data of sufficient quality to count employed persons. Additional metadata necessary to complete timeliness, relevance and comparability assessment. Statistical Farm Register (SFR) gives contribution in identification of employed persons. Further investigations about criteria to be used should be performed. Unemployed persons: State Employment Agency (SEA) data represents typical age of unemployed persons (15 – 62) as just ~2% of unemployed persons are older in accordance with the LFS. LFS shows higher number of unemployed persons as SEA (~15%). Unemployed persons in accordance with the SEA partly have a different status in the LFS: ~4% employed, ~23% inactive. Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

Administrative data sources that characterize the economic activity of the population in Latvia (3) Occupation SRS collects data about occupation since 2014. Main Job: ~80% of employed persons have just one job. Occupation: Occupations with the highest compliance between LFS and SRS were: dentists; physiotherapists; customs and border inspectors; locomotive engine drivers; bus and tram drivers; general medical practitioners etc. Occupations with the lowest compliance between LFS and SRS were: manufacturing supervisors; Web technicians; production clerks; handicraft workers not elsewhere classified; mixed crop growers etc. Occupations, where more precise information available in the SRS: police officers, accountants, teachers etc. Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

Administrative data sources characterising economical activity of population in Latvia (4) Industry (branch of economic activity) The NACE Section code was available from Statistical Business Register (SBR) or SRS data for 99.4 % of employees that had the occupation code; The compliance rate between LFS and administrative data accounted for 72.8% that is satisfactory; The highest level of compliance was observed in Section Q (Human health and social work activities) – 93.5 %, in Section K (Financial and insurance activities) – 91.9% and in Section P (Education) – 90.8%; The lowest compliance rate – 45.0 % – was observed in Section N (Administrative and support service activities), followed by Section O (Public administration and defence; compulsory social security) – 45.9 %. Status in employment (Employees, Employers, Own account workers, Other members of the labour force) Significant differences (24.7%) between LFS and administrative data among own-account workers: 66 % of them had the economic activity status of “Other”, 20 % were “Pension or capital income recipients”, 11 % were unemployed and 4 % - not economically active students; Just 30% of employers were found in the administrative data in comparison with the estimate on the base of LFS. Further research of specific cases (family doctors, lawyers, notaries etc.) is needed. Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

Administrative data sources characterising economical activity of population in Latvia (5) Currently not economically active population (Persons below working age (0-14); Pension recipients; Capital income recipients; Students; Others) Recipients of pensions from administrative data sources are set within the limits of the confidence interval and no significant changes in the method applied are required, including imputation; Further study of income codes in SRS data is necessary to ensure more accurate selection of the data on capital income recipients; Information on 21 % of students was not acquired at individual level as the Register of Tertiary students in Latvia is not finished yet. Solution should be found; Number of persons in the group «Others» will decrease with expected further improvements in other groups of not economically active population. Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

A pilot project on working out the quality system of administrative data Working out of the administrative data quality system was initiated in Latvia in 2016. Dutch experience is used as a model. A detailed analysis of the information included in the Population Register was made during the pilot project. As it is planned to use administrative data sources not only for Census, but for other statistical areas working out of the administrative data quality system was initiated in Latvia in 2016. Dutch experience is used as a model. We had in March two days consultations with the expert from Statistics Netherlands Mr. Schulte – Nordhold. We started work with the pilot project during which a detailed analysis of the information included in The Population Register was made. Analysis of other administrative data sources will be made step by step. Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

Conclusions 1. Estimation method worked out by the CSB of Latvia will help to have the Census 2021 population number for Latvia more precise as it would be in case of direct use of the Population Register. 2. Eurostat ESS VIP.ADMIN Grant project - a good base to obtain high quality economical characteristics of the population of Latvia from administrative data sources for the Census 2021. 3. The next Eurostat ESS VIP.ADMIN Grant project - initial evaluation of the administrative data availability and quality on educational characteristics of the population. 4. Improvement of the Social Statistics Data Warehouse (SSDW) should be continued in accordance with the needs of the Population and Housing Census 2021. 5. An annual database of personal data on 1st January of the respective year in accordance with the Programme of the Population and Housing Census should be developed starting with 2016. Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016

Thank you for your attention! Budapest, Hungary, 21 October, 2016 CESS 2016