Electric Cars – Vehicles of the Future? Patrick Plötz, Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe SÜD Heidelberg, November 2011

Myth: “Electric vehicles are useless – they can’t go far.”

Myth: “Electric vehicles are useless – they can’t go far.” Typical daily driving distances are short. Most (80%) of day-travels are shorter than 60 km. Few (8 %) of day-travels are longer than 130 km Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI Plug-in-Hybrid Property Gasoline vehicle 3 minutes + 2 hours > 700 km 3 minutes 50 + 600 km Range Refueling Duration every day + When necessary Every 2 weeks Refueling Frequency Battery electric vehicle 0.5 - 8 hours < 150 km Every 3 days or 30% every day Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long distances Electric vehicles

Myth: “Electric vehicles can help integrating renewable energies, but they need so much electricity.”

Myth: “Electric vehicles can help integrating renewable energies, but they need so much electricity.” Take 1 Million electric vehicles, giving on average 10 kWh = 10 GWh = 10 minutes of the average German electricity need Loading with 3,7 kW each = 3,7 GW = 2.4% of installed German power (155 GW in 2009) Electricity need of 1 million vehicles: Driving 14 300 km per year (German average) and using 16 kWh/100 km = 3 TWh/a = 0.5% of annual German electricity use Large fleet of electric vehicles offers some power but small capacity Source: BDEW, Fraunhofer ISI Drawing: Heyko Stöber

Myth: “Electric vehicles need public charging points.”

Myth: “Electric vehicles need public charging points.” Charging at home: cheap & easy The majority of car users has a fixed place for his/her car (either a garage or a place at home) Even in larger cities (>100.000 inhabitants) only some people (22% in Germany) have no fixed parking place Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long distances To start a mass market, no expensive infrastructure needed Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI

Electric cars – vehicles of the future? Overview Electric cars – vehicles of the future? 1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3 Past and Present of electric vehicles 4 The Future of eletric vehicles 5 Conclusion

A growing mobility demand faces limited fossile resources Growing demand for oil cannot be covered sustainably Source: Shell, WBCSD

To achieve Europe‘s climate targets, a drastic reduction in transport CO2-emissions is needed The EU‘s long term goal is to reduce GHG emissions by 80% Power production and road transport have to become almost CO2-free This is impossible with efficiency gains in combustion engines New technologies and concepts are clearly needed. Electric vehicles powered by renewable energies can contribute significantly Source: www.roadmap2050.eu

Electric vehicles can reduce emissions and noise in your local environment Electric vehicles locally produce less noise and emissions They create a calmer and cleaner local environment But their production is very energy consuming Source: Fraunhofer ISI

Electric cars – vehicles of the future? Overview Electric cars – vehicles of the future? 1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3 Past and Present of electric vehicles: How do they work? What do they cost? Do we need special charging stations? Are they “green”? 4 The Future of electric vehicles 5 Conclusion

The first road vehicle achieving a speed of more than 100 km/h The French electric vehicle La jamais contente with 105 km/h in 1899

Short History of electric vehicles Invention of electric vehicle 1834 Large market shares around 1900 First hybrid by Ferdinand Porsche in 1899 Gasoline vehicles cheaper and faster from 1920 until today Renewed interest in 1980s after oil crises Today‘s batteries allow longer ranges Thomas Edison with electric car in 1913 Sources: Chan 2007, wikipedia

German vehicle stock in 2011 80 % of vehicles are passenger cars: 30 million gasoline, 11 million diesel Currently, 2300 Electric vehicles and 40,000 hybrids Vehicles in Germany Source: Kraftfahrtbundesamt (2011),

How does an electric vehicle work? Battery electric vehicle: Small number of main components: Electric motor Large battery AC/DC converter Electronics... No oil or fuel tank No exhaust system (tail pipe etc.) Hybrid electric vehicle: Small combustion engine Small fuel tank Electronics Fuel cell electric vehicle has an additional tank and fuel cell Electric vehicle ≈ several wheels and a plug Source: Bosch AG

The energy density of current batteries sets limits to the use of electric vehicles Quelle: GM, 2009

Electric vehicles produced in 2010 A few manufacturers are already producing electric vehicles Numbers are really tiny compared to world vehicle production of 78 million units in 2010

When can we buy eletcric vehicles? Alternative fuel vehicles already available or announced for 2011 – 2014 by major manufacturers in the German market Manufacturer Hybrid Gas- hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Battery electric Fuel cell vehicle Total MERCEDES 5 1 4 11 TOYOTA 3 2 9 VW 8 RENAULT 7 BMW 6 HYUNDAI CITROEN PEUGEOT AUDI NISSAN 20 29 57 Simple hybrids already available Many battery electric vehicles underway Only some plug-in hybrids announced

Electric vehicles come in a broad variety Sports cars Plug-in hybrid passenger car Small electric vehicles soon Battery LDVs Off-road duty vehicle today Plug-in hybrid LDV Elektroroller

How much does an electric vehicle cost? Example for the total life cycle costs for a battery electric vehicle with average annual German driving range (14000 km, no tax, 2015): Long driving distances required to make BEVs economically attractive Battery and fuel costs are the main drivers for total cost of ownership (TCO) Fuel Vehicle purchase Battery costs Maintenance Costs in cent per kilometer Quelle: Fraunhofer ISI

Support by the German government on electric mobility Political actions: Non-financial incentives No direct purchase support Research funding: 2 million € No car tax (below 50 gCO2/km) low tax for commercial cars Target: 10% of governmental vehicles Use of bus lanes for EVs Free city entry 1 million by 2020 Quelle: Regierungsprogramm Elektromobilität 2011

In the beginning, electric vehicles will mainly target a niche market Selection of Propulsion Technology - 2015 (in relation to mileage and share of city traffic) 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% EVs only in some segments profitable Attractive first user segments Commuters Second-car users Full time employees from areas with less than 100,000 inhab. Potential of up to 4% of car users (2015) in existing infrastructure - equivalent to 1.6 mn. Trip Length Restrictions Battery Electric Vehicle Annual Mileage (in km) Utilization Restrictions Internal Combustion Engine Share of City Traffic Source: Own calculations

% EVs are the most efficient propulsion technology and can reduce CO2-emissions in transport Efficiency and Emissions of Different Propulsion Technologies Emissions in GHG-Equivalents (in g/km) Efficiency (Well-to-Wheel Analysis) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 50 100 250 300 350 150 200 Coal-to-Liquid ICE Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bio-diesel (RME) Biofuels Less emissions More efficient Battery Electric Vehicle (Wind) Plug-In Hybrid (EU mix) BEV Note: BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle; RME: Raps-Methyl-Ester Source: Own calculations and LBST

How „green“ are electric vehicles? The production of batteries for electric vehicles is very energy intense Depending on the electricity used, additional CO2 emissions from electricity generation need to be taken into account With electricity from renewable sources drastic reduction of CO2 emissions are possible Electricity generation Vehicle production Battery production Additional battery Electric vehicles Conventional vehicles GHG potential in tons CO2e

Electric cars – vehicles of the future? Overview Electric cars – vehicles of the future? 1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3 Past and Present of electric vehicles: How do they work? What do they cost? Do we need special charging stations? Are they “green”? 4 The Future of electric vehicles 5 Conclusion

Market scenarios for Germany Pluralism Szenarios I/IV Referenzszenario Energiekonzept Dominance

Economy of propulsion system The future of alternative fuels – various technologies for different applications Vehicle weight challenges high 2nd generation biofuels transportation Long range public transport Fuel cell vehicles Public transport Economy of fuel Plug-in hybrids City LDVs Everyday use Battery vehicle 2nd car Economy of propulsion system acceptance Energy density Electro cycle safety low distance Short trips (city) Long trips (highway)

Depending on market penetration, charging infrastructure has to change Grid Integration with Increasing Market Penetration Charging Infrastructure Innovators´ Market Niche Market (e.g. commuters, business clients) Market Penetration Mass Market Time Grid Integration Infrastructure Norms and standards Mainly private infrastructure Selective public infrastructure to support early adoption Smart Metering Expansion of semi- public charging infrastr. Smart Grids Control Time-of-use rates Demand Side Management (Dynamic rates) Bi-directional connection System Services Load shift (negative supply of balancing power) Load shift and active load leveling Source: Own visualization

Conclusions 1 2 3 What are electric vehicles? Electric vehicles use electric motors and batteries and/or fuel cells Many forms of hybrid vehicles are possible 2 How much do electric vehicles cost? They are more expensive to buy but cheaper to drive than current conventional vehicles Special charging stations are required later 3 Are electric vehicle green? Electric vehicles can significantly reduce global and local emissions, but only when charged from renewable energy sources Their production is very energy intense Are electric vehicles the vehicles of the future? They can play an important role in transport and in reduction of CO2 emissions Other vehicle technologies can be become important too, especially fuel cell vehicles

Thank you Special thanks to Martin Wietschel Fabian Kley Till Gnann Wolfgang Schade Thank you for listening! References: Biere, D.; Dallinger, D.; Wietschel, M.: Ökonomische Analyse der Erstnutzer-von Elektrofahrzeugen, Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 02/2009, 173-183. Wietschel, M., Kley, F. und Dallinger, D. : Eine Bewertung der Ladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge, Zeitschrift für die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette Automobilwirtschaft, Bd. 12 (3), S. 33–41. Kley, F., Dallinger, D. und Wietschel, M. : Assessment of future charging infrastructure, International Advanced Mobility Forum, 9-10 März 2010, S. 1–7. Genf. Kley, F., Entwicklung und Bewertung einer Strategie für den Aufbau einer Beladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge auf Basis des Fahrverhaltens. Dissertation . Karlsruhe, 2011.