I-15 North Phase 4 Preliminary DRAFT CRA Results July 2014

Contents of this Presentation Base Schedule (Flowchart) Base Schedule by Flowchart Activity Base Cost with Uncertainty by Flowchart Activity Allocated Overhead Escalation Assumptions Risk Register Count Risk Analysis Results S-Curve Project Cost 70th Percentile Risk Profile – Stacked Bar Top Cost Risks – Tornado Chart S-Curve Completion Date Top Schedule Risks – Tornado Chart

Base Schedule

Base Schedule by Flowchart Activity Activity ID Activity Start Date End Date Duration 400 Phase 4 Preliminary Engineering - Scoping 10/1/14 3/31/15 5.98 410 Phase 4 Environmental Re-Evaluation 4/1/15 3/31/16 12.02 420 Phase 4 Right-of-Way / Utilities 4/1/16 12/31/17 21.03 425 UPRR Railroad Coordination 430 Phase 4 Final Design 33.05 440 Phase 4 Construction 1/1/18 12/31/21 48.00

Base Cost with Uncertainty by Flowchart Activity Activity ID Activity Total (CN + CE + PE + ROW) Low Base High 400 Phase 4 Preliminary Engineering - Scoping $1,900,000 $2,000,000 $2,200,000 410 Phase 4 Environmental Re-Evaluation $0 420 Phase 4 Right-of-Way / Utilities $2,495,000 $2,775,000 $3,055,000 425 UPRR Railroad Coordination $90,000 $100,000 $120,000 430 Phase 4 Final Design $9,849,184 $11,674,076 $13,305,322 440 Phase 4 Construction $142,043,332 $168,331,329 $191,832,488   Total $156,377,516 $184,880,405 $210,512,810

I-15 North (Phase 4) Allocated Overhead Support Costs per Month of Calendar Delay Activity Number Activity Name Agency Contractor Total 400 Phase 4 Preliminary Engineering - Scoping $166,667   430 Phase 4 Final Design $176,880 440 Phase 4 Construction $226,996 $259,424 $486,420

Escalation Assumptions Escalation Rates Year Construction PE ROW 2014 3.19% 3.41% 4.02% 2015 3.33% 2.96% 4.12% 2016 3.72% 2.83% 4.35% 2017 3.94% 2.73% 4.58% 2018 3.80% 3.13% 4.75% 2019 4.01% 2.90% 4.83% 2020 4.05% 2.75% 5.28% 2021 4.28% 4.11% 2022 + 4.51% 2.74% 2.94% Note: Escalation forecasts were developed utilizing a combination of national and Nevada data. Forecasts for Engineering were based on the growth rate of civil engineering salaries, ROW on the change in real estate prices, and Construction on changes in various materials and construction labor indices, such as, concrete, steel, asphalt, and machinery.

I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Register Count NDOT RBS Category I-15 North (Phase 4) Active Inactive Retired Total Environmental & Hydraulics 5 2 7 Right-of-Way 4 Utilities 1 Design / PS&E 6 14 Structures & Geotech Railroad Partnerships and Stakeholders Management / Funding Contracting and Procurement 3 Construction 30 13 44

I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Analysis Results

I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Analysis Results

I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Analysis Results

I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Analysis Results

I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Analysis Results