Commodity Market Outlook 2016 Mumbai. May 26, 2016

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Presentation transcript:

Commodity Market Outlook 2016 Mumbai. May 26, 2016 IMC-ERTF Seminar on Commodity Market Outlook 2016 Mumbai. May 26, 2016 Sugar Market Outlook G. CHANDRASHEKHAR

Global sugar market fundamentals are tightening After 5 years of surplus, a small deficit this year Prices have responded – from 12c/lb six months ago, prices have moved to 17c/lb now; from April 20% increase Rising crude oil prices support sugar via the ethanol route India – world second largest producer and largest consumer - biggest upside risk for global sugar market Indian sugar production has steadily declined to 24 ml t in 2015-16 Open market prices have spurted since January and are currently appx Rs 35,000 per ton Upside price risk to Rs 40,000 Demand to kick-in early this year with Ramzaan early June 2016-17 production may dip further Sugar mills sitting on stocks, anticipating still higher prices Govt removed all sops on sugar export Stock limit imposed on traders Import duty may be waived Speculative interest rising globally So, tighten your seat belt and be ready for a bumpy ride IMC-ERTF predicted sugar price rise as far back as January 2016 and sent a memorandum to policymakers