Future Technologies and Fuels for the Trucking Sector Marshall Miller Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis General Services Conference April 25, 2017

Medium- to Long-Term Truck Emissions Issues Criteria Emissions (NOX and Particulates) Some CA Regions don’t meet EPA 2023 and 2032 air quality standards (e.g. ozone) California State Implementation Plan petitions EPA to adopt very strict NOX standard (0.02 g/bhph) Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) CA governor’s goals – 50% reduction in petroleum use in vehicles by 2030 Climate change goal – 80% reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2050 (NOTE: goal is for all sectors)

Truck Technologies Truck Technology Benefits Barriers Conventional Diesel Available, low cost High emissions (NOX, PM, GHGs) Advanced Diesel (hybrid, light weighting, low rolling resistance tires, truck skirts, etc.) High fuel economy Natural Gas (CNG or LNG) Low NOX, PM Low fuel cost High GHGs, Somewhat higher capital cost, fuel availability Battery Electric (BEV) Very low emissions, Zero from vehicle High cost, low availability, Lack of fueling infrastructure, Low range Fuel Cell High cost, low availability, Lack of fueling infrastructure

Truck Fuels Truck Fuel Benefits Barriers Diesel Available, cheap High emissions (NOX, PM, GHGs) Renewable diesel Low GHG emissions Higher cost, Limited production volume, High emissions (NOX, PM) Natural Gas (CNG or LNG) Low NOX, PM Low fuel cost High GHGs, Somewhat higher capital cost, fuel availability Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Low NOX, PM, GHGs   Limited production volume, High cost Electricity (BEV) Very low emissions, Zero from vehicle, Low fuel cost Lack of fueling infrastructure, Low range Hydrogen (Fuel Cell) Very low emissions, Zero from vehicle High cost, Lack of fueling infrastructure

Truck Scenarios Scenarios specify the percentage of new vehicle sales for each truck type (e.g. long-haul, short-haul, delivery, buses, HD pickups, vocational) and technology for each year through 2050 BAU (business as usual) Meet phase I and phase II standards for fuel economy No advanced technologies (BEV, fuel cell) No renewable diesel or RNG) ZEV Aggressive fleet penetration for fuel cell and BEVs ZEV + biofuels Fleet penetration roughly half of ZEV scenario for fuel cell and BEVs Renewable diesel contribution grows to 50% by 2050 5

Truck Vehicle Types Truck Type Technologies Description / Example Miles/day Operating days/yr MPDGE (2015 MY) EMFAC Long Haul DieselLNG CI, Fuel Cell (FC) Class 8 sleeper cab 287 miles/day 312 days/yr 6.6 Short haul Diesel, hybrid, CNG, Fuel Cell, BEV Class 8 non sleeper cab 140 miles/day 6.5 MD urban Diesel, Gas, diesel hybrid, CNG, FC, BEV Delivery truck (UPS) 80 312 8.6 Transit Bus Diesel, hybrid, CNG, FC, BEV 150 327 4.6   Other Bus Coach Greyhound 90 292 HD pickup Diesel, Gas, CNG, Hybrid, FC, BEV, PHEV Ford F250 70 18 MD vocational Bucket Truck 20 8.4 HD vocational 145 6.7 6

80% reduction in Heavy-Duty GHG Emissions by 2050 Top: ZEV scenario, Bottom: ZEVs plus biofuels 7

Long Haul Truck Scenarios 8

Long Haul Truck Fleet Stock 9

HD Pickups Scenarios 10

HD Pickups Fleet Stock ZEV Scenario: ZEVs ~60% of fleet, ZEV + Biofuels Scenario: ZEVS ~30% 11

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Total Truck GHG Emissions ZEV: Low CI values, 5% diesel biofuels 2050 ZEV gCO2e/gge: Diesel ~ 14,000, H2 ~ 2,000, elec ~150-500 13

GHG Emissions Reductions by Scenario GHG Reduction in 2050 from 2010 (%) BAU (frozen efficiency and CI) 32 BAU -8 ZEV -48 ZEV + Biofuels -47 14

Yearly Total Cost Difference (BAU – ZEV) 2050: Diesel = $5.37/gal, H2 = $6.23/kg (truck stop) $7.74/kg (fleet) 15

Yearly Total Cost Difference (BAU – ZEV) 2050: Diesel = $3.50/gal, H2 = $6.23/kg (truck stop) $7.74/kg (fleet) 16

Thank You