Why stop farmers from farming Why stop farmers from farming? Motivations for national opium suppression interventions James Windle Email: J.Windle@uel.ac.uk Twitter: @JamesWindle6

Oxford

‘Successful’ opium suppression: Cases All cases reduced illicit opium production, or diversion from licit sources, by over 90 percent bringing potential national production below 20 metric tonnes. China (1906-17); People’s Democratic Republic of China (1950s/60s); Iran (1955-1979) / Islamic Republic of Iran (1979-??); Turkey (1970s); Thailand (1970s-1990s); Pakistan (1970s-1990s); Socialist Republic of Viet Nam (1990s); Lao People’s Democratic Republic (1990s-2000s).

‘Successful’ opium suppression Five factors presented in all (or most) cases = necessary for successful intervention: All governments perceived suppression as being in their best interest; All states possessed a strong presence throughout opium producing areas; All but two states presented an incentive with which opium farmers could perceive some benefit; All states possessed capabilities to monitor opium farmers; All interventions administered law enforcement.

Motivation China PRC Iran Turkey Thailand Pakistan Laos Vietnam State extension Ideology /religion Security / counter-insurgency Rural development Export commodities Environmental protection Domestic opium consumption External pressure Motivation

Overarching motivations Economic self-interest Securitization

Overarching motivations Economic self-interest Securitization

Thanks for listening J.Windle@uel.ac.uk