Student Generation from Various Housing Unit Types Estimating Student Generation from Various Housing Unit Types Virginia Association of School Business Officials November 4, 2016

About Fairfax City 6.3 square miles 24,000 population 4 Schools Shared Services Agreement with Fairfax County; City School Board owns the facilities Small jurisdictions need to be creative

What We Do City Staff examines enrollment trends and student yield ratios annually: We have calculated city-specific yields since 2011; For various housing types and subdivisions (more detail than otherwise available); Helps us calculate future facility & fiscal needs.

What We Do Why We Do This: Ratios available from larger School Districts vary greatly between areas: It is helpful to have customized numbers reflective of local City conditions. Customized student ratios help the City project student generation from new housing; Input into City fiscal impact review.

What We Do Annual Timeline: “Official” enrollment numbers taken Sept. 30; Detailed demographic data work takes a few weeks/months (FCPS); City gets data in December / January; Analysis finished in February. Today we’re looking at 2015 data!

Enrollment 2015-16 Enrollment Providence ES Fairfax HS Lanier MS Daniels Run ES School City Students County TOTAL Fairfax HS 955 1,458 2,413 Lanier MS 432 563 995 Providence ES 711 249 960 Daniels Run ES 717 8 725 2015-16 Enrollment

Student Generation Yield Ratios calculated annually (students per housing unit): Housing Unit Type Fairfax City AVERAGE Fairfax County Single-Family Detached 0.408 0.530 Townhouse 0.242 0.441 Multifamily (garden style) 0.336 0.325 Multifamily (mid/high rise) 0.078 0.100 County averages for most recently available year.

Differences between types of subdivision and year built. Student Generation 0.415 0.366 0.373 Differences between types of subdivision and year built. 0.306 0.256 0.152 0.048 Detached Townhouse Condo Apartment Established Recent Established Recent Established Recent Housing units in these categories tend to share similar characteristics.

Student Generation …50 years ago 0.94 Then 0.41 0.39 0.31 Now Then Now Detached Homes Multifamily

Student Generation Detached/Duplex Neighborhoods: Yield Ratio Dark Green: Established Subdivisions Light Green: Newer Subdivisions Yield Ratio

Student Generation Townhouse Neighborhoods: Yield Ratio Yield Ratio Dark Blue: Established Subdivisions Light Blue: Newer Subdivisions Yield Ratio

Student Generation Multifamily Complexes: Multifamily Complexes: Yield Ratio Red: Apartments Pink: Condominiums Multifamily Complexes: Yield Ratio Red: Apartments Pink: Condominiums Yield Ratio

Potential Future Residential Development: 360 Apartments replacing 110 Potential Future Residential Development: Known potential projects as of Nov., 2016 250 Apts. & 50 TH’s 400 Apartments 400 Apartments 392 Apartments A 467 Apts. & 108 Townhouses P 403 Apartments P A 80 Condos P 387 Apts. & 22 Townhouses replacing 38 Apts A F A A 94 Condos & 38 Townhouses replacing 110 Apts P A A P F Approved Filed Potential A P F 40 Townhouses * Potential projects included for discussion purposes. Complete applications have not been filed, and have not been considered by City Council. MULTIFAMILY TOWNHOUSES DETACHED HOUSES COLOR KEY: (#s) indicate # of units. A 258 Apartments 12 Detached 25 Townhouses 15 Townhouses

Common Characteristics: New Development Will new apartments generate many students? Proposed apts. are a different style: Differs from existing complexes Common Characteristics: 5 - 6 stories Minimal Open Space Internal Parking Smaller Units

New Development 5 Reasons why Apartments WILL generate many new students: Changing Housing Preferences: People choosing to raise families in multifamily units – even in affluent areas. Rental Preference: More households are renting by choice: They can afford to buy, but don’t. Immigration: Families from other countries can view US apartments as spacious & well-suited for families. Millennials: Value indoor spaces & proximity to amenities. Transiency: Many people move to No. Va. for temporary gov’t/military/contractor jobs.

New Development 5 Reasons why Apartments WILL NOT generate many new students: Temporary Economic Impact: Housing preference changes partly due to unstable economy. If economy stabilizes, trends may reverse. Immigration: Many aspire to detached houses, not just apartments. Millennials: Preferences may change as the generation ages. Physical Details: Characteristics of apt. buildings can lead to variations in occupant types. Condos: Condos w/ high rates of ownership tend to generate fewer students.

New Development … but we still need to estimate student enrollment! Here is what we’ve done: Find recently constructed examples: Multifamily complexes built in the last 10-15 years: Similar size of buildings Similar price points Similar density (i.e., open space) Similar unit mix (i.e., watch out for apts. w/ mostly 1-bedroom units!)

New Development With no examples in our City: We worked with Fairfax Co. Public Schools to analyze student ratios from nearby areas: For smaller school districts, cooperation is key Possibility of an informal consortium to share ideas & experiences… pooling resources. Very helpful for smaller jurisdictions in exploring new ideas/strategies!

New Development We focused on newer apartment buildings near Fairfax City. Provides solid estimates student generation. Defensibility! Camden Monument Pl. Built: 2007 Units: 368 Students: 36 (0.10) Ridgewood Built: 2010 Units: 292 Students: 39 (0.13) Ridgewood II Built: 2012 Units: 191 Students: 29 (0.15) Dwell Built: 2007 Units: 250 Students: 27 (0.11) Falls at Flint Hill Built: 2008 Units: 246 Students: 34 (0.14) Average: 165 students / 1,347 units 0.122 ratio

New Development Estimated student generation estimates for new housing units: Housing Unit Type Yield Ratio Methodology Detached 0.366 Ratio for newer Detached units Townhouse 0.229 Avg. of newer and established townhouse units Apartment 0.122 Nearby Comparables (newer units) Condominium 0.061-0.081 ½ to ⅔ of Apartment average

New Development Of course, nothing’s ever that easy… Small changes can mean big differences. Be careful to account for differences in geography, school district & other details! Enrollment #s change quickly – these numbers need to be updated at least once every 3 years. Expect these numbers to be disputed.

New Development Questions or Follow-up: Eric Forman City of Fairfax (703) 293-7154 eric.forman@fairfaxva.gov …always available to talk!