Time and Money By Ken Hodor

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Presentation transcript:

Time and Money By Ken Hodor Optimizing ROI Time and Money By Ken Hodor 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Investment Objectives Safety Highest possible return Liquidity—I want my money now! Minimal time commitment Simple Automate as much as possible 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Evolution Bank returns 4% CD returns 6% Own your own home 8% or less Buy investment property depending on where –100 to 100% per year ---------Below here meets my objectives---------- Buy and hold quality stocks 8% Options 100% in one day! WOW Trade QID and QLD 0.5% per day 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Chasing Beta S&P 500 Beta = 1 Good stocks Beta approaches 2 HPQ = 1.9 HON = 1.63 GS = 1.16 CSCO = 1.71 QLD / QID Beta is 2 and –2 respectively 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

QQQQ Diversification 100 top NASDAQ stocks (such as top 10) AAPL Computer CMCSA Consumer TV network MSFT Software GOOG Marketing AMGN Medical CSCO Networking SBUX Coffee QCOM Semiconductor phone ICs INTC Semiconductors ORCL Database software 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Change per day Long term QQQQ = 0.29% / day QLD = 0.58% / day QID = -0.58% / day Rule of 72: Double in 124 days 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Green Arrow Buy 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Green Arrow Buy (calls) 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Style Minimal trades—big market moves Last year 60% return Update daily to catch corrections Last year potentially >60% return Day Trade >0.5% per day 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Style #1 Follow the arrows 3 green arrows on QQQQ Buy QLD Sell QID 3 red arrows on QQQQ Buy QID Sell QLD 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Style #1: Minimal Trades 3-Green Arrows Buy QLD Sell QID 3-Red Arrows Sell QLD Buy QID 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Can you avoid big negatives? Channels Candles Feb 27, 2007 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Style #2: Catch Corrections Stick with trend—either QID/QLD Too hard to flip between the two. To Buy Every day adjust “stop buy” previous day high To Sell Every day adjust “stop loss” previous day low 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Style #3: Day Trading Drive you Crazy Plots with 3 minute intervals EMA 20 EMA 60 Like looking into hand of market makers 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Style #3: Day Trading (plot) 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Style #3: Day Trading Depends on market conditions EMA 20 crosses EMA 60 Candles touch EMA 20 Watch for peaks and valleys—hesitations Goal 1% per day Tighten stops– $0.05 on QQQQ trigger QLD/QID Cash out and wait for confirmed movement Momentum + distance ($0.05) from EMA 20 to buy Use very tight stops from here on to follow trend 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Risks QID/QLD move fast QID can go to $0 Emotional roller coaster Set up automatic triggers Trailing stops Stop losses Stop buys QID can go to $0 When only 50 stock holders trading 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Tax ramifications If qualify as IRS 1256 contracts then: 60% profit is long term capital gains 40% profit is short term capital gains NOTE: at this time DO NOT BELIEVE TRUE…still checking. 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

So What Happened? Since Last Meeting 5/16 10-year Treasury start creeping up 10-year Treasury >5% 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Trader’s Saying Sell in May and go away It worked for me ! 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH

Conclusion Make it as simple as you can, but no simpler. Einstein Trade 2 stocks QID and QLD 5/23/2007 QID/QLD by KMH