Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

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PREV AIR : An operational system for air quality monitoring and forecasting presented by Laurence Rouïl.

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Presentation transcript:

Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service How are global analyses, forecasts and re-analyses produced? Richard Engelen (ECMWF) On behalf of CAMS30 team

Observations Ozone observations per 12 hours Metop-B GOME-2 Metop-A GOME-2 OMI SBUV OMI

Analysis & forecast Full 3-D fields that are forecasted 5 days ahead.

CAMS service chain Space Agencies In-situ component CAMS National scale

Global Services Real-time Analyses AER, CHEM Forecasts AER, CHEM, GHG Delayed-mode GHG Reanalysis Supplementary Analysis GFAS

Observation operators Global system C-IFS Observation operators 4D-Var Chemical module Aerosol module Chemical module Aerosol module Meteorology GHG module GHG module

Interaction with data providers GLOBAL SERVICE CHAIN Routine monitoring Validation User support Data Acquisition Data Assimilation Forecast Data Dissemination Routine verification Interaction with data providers Emissions

Current status 80 km horizontal resolution One 5-day forecasts per day 00UTC forecast available before 22 UTC 40 km horizontal resolution Two 5-day forecasts per day 12UTC forecast available before 22 UTC

GFAS and GhG systems GFAS currently provides daily estimates of global fire radiative power and fire emissions of many species. Aim is to better estimate diurnal cycle and forecasted emissions (links with Land and Emergency services) and fully embed in operational global system. GHG system analyses CO2 and CH4 5 days behind real-time and provides daily real-time 10-day forecasts of the same species. Aim is to merge the two systems and run them as close to real-time as observation availability allows.

CAMS Reanalysis Ozone score CAMS interim reanalysis MACC reanalysis MACC/CAMS real-time Control Using experience from MACC and CAMS-interim reanalyses, the 1st CAMS Reanalysis will start later this year. 2003 – 2017 All current species Additional observations

Use of global services Boundary conditions (CAMS, PANDA, HTAP,…) Pollution and long-range transport on global scale (e.g., large wildfires, volcanos eruptions, dust storms) Input for downscaling applications (e.g., smartphone apps) Input for national forecasting services (e.g., dust, UV) WMO warning advisory centres Scientific community (field campaigns, scientific studies, ...) ...

Global development Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower Steve Jobs Use new satellite products: S3, S5p, OCO-2, S-NPP Improved UV products (health) More accurate surface aerosol and deposition (health, solar energy) Nitrates (key link between chemistry and aerosol) Stratospheric chemistry (ozone layer) Volcanic eruptions (impact on air travel and climate) More accurate methane emissions (monitoring of carbon cycle) Increased resolution …