Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Impact of environmental moisture on intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010) Longtao Wu, Hui Su, and Robert Fovell HS3 Science Meeting May 2014.
Advertisements

Tropical Cyclone Intrinsic Variability & Predictability Gregory J. Hakim University of Washington 67th IHC/Tropical Cyclone Research Forum 6 March 2013.
Frank Marks NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division 11 February 2011 Frank Marks NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division 11 February 2011 Hurricane Research.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
Hurricanes Smoking Guns of Climate Change or random occurrences?
The Relative Contribution of Atmospheric and Oceanic Uncertainty in TC Intensity Forecasts Ryan D. Torn University at Albany, SUNY World Weather Open Science.
Impact of the 4D-Var Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Data on Numerical Simulations of the Genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008) Zhan Li and Zhaoxia Pu.
Genesis Potential Index and ENSO Suzana J. Camargo.
Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Doppler Lidar Wind Measurements on High-impact Weather Forecasting: A Regional OSSE Study Zhaoxia Pu and Lei Zhang University.
Observing Strategy and Observation Targeting for Tropical Cyclones Using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Data Assimilation Chen, Deng-Shun 3 Dec,
Applications of ATMS/CrIS to Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting Mark DeMaria and John A. Knaff NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Fort Collins, CO Andrea Schumacher,
Using Physics to Generate Tropical Cyclone Event Catalogs Kerry Emanuel and Sai Ravela Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The fear of the LORD is the beginning of wisdom 陳登舜 ATM NCU Group Meeting REFERENCE : Liu., H., J. Anderson, and Y.-H. Kuo, 2012: Improved analyses.
Hurricanes in Other Climates Robert Korty Texas A&M.
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: An Assessment WMO Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones February 2010 World Weather Research.
Hurricanes and Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Large Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasting K. Emanuel 1 and Ross N. Hoffman 2, S. Hopsch 2, D. Gombos 2, and T. Nehrkorn 2 1 Massachusetts Institute of.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2006 Matt Huddleston With thanks to: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Ruth McDonald & Met Office Seasonal forecasting team 14 th March.
Predictability and dynamics of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) Erin Munsell and Fuqing Zhang (Penn State) Jason Sippel (EMC/IMSG)
How Small-Scale Turbulence Sets the Amplitude and Structure of Tropical Cyclones Kerry Emanuel PAOC.
Three Lectures on Tropical Cyclones Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology Spring School on Fluid Mechanics of Environmental Hazards.
Development of Probabilistic Forecast Guidance at CIRA Andrea Schumacher (CIRA) Mark DeMaria and John Knaff (NOAA/NESDIS/ORA) Workshop on AWIPS Tools for.
Munehiko Yamaguchi Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency 9:00 – 12: (Thr) Topic.
Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Global-Hawk-based data from tropical cyclones Jason Sippel, Gerry Heymsfield, Lin Tian, and Scott Braun- NASAs GSFC.
The Impact of Lightning Density Input on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasts Mark DeMaria, John Knaff and Debra Molenar, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort.
Hurricanes One of Natures most powerful and destructive storms.
Atlantic Simplified Track Model Verification 4-year Sample ( ) OFCL shown for comparison Forecast Skill Mean Absolute Error.
Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasting Using Lightning Data during the 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center Mark DeMaria.
Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Year 2 Project Update Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO John A. Knaff,
CHPR An integrated hurricane prediction and response system that allows: Strategic planning (weeks): energy, transportation, supply chains, financial,
Determining Key Model Parameters of Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo(1997) Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Chen Deng-Shun 16 Apr, 2013, NCU Godinez,
Doppler Lidar Winds & Tropical Cyclones Frank D. Marks AOML/Hurricane Research Division 7 February 2007.
Hurricanes and Global Warming Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Analysis of Typhoon Tropical Cyclogenesis in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Suzana J. Camargo and Adam H. Sobel.
National Hurricane Center 2009 Forecast Verification James L. Franklin Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit National Hurricane Center 2009 NOAA Hurricane.
The Tropical Transition of Cyclones: Science Issues and Critical Observations or TC Genesis: A Global Problem Chris Davis (NCAR) Collaborators: Lance Bosart.
New Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Tools for the Western North Pacific Mark DeMaria and John Knaff NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMB Andrea Schumacher, CIRA/CSU.
NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Development Fred Toepfer, HFIP Manager Bob Gall, HFIP Development Manager.
Figures from “The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System”
Shuyi S. Chen Rosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami Overview of RAINEX Modeling of 2005 Hurricanes In the eye of Katrina.
2. WRF model configuration and initial conditions  Three sets of initial and lateral boundary conditions for Katrina are used, including the output from.
Shuyi S. Chen, Robert A. Houze Bradley Smull, David Nolan, Wen-Chau Lee Frank Marks, and Robert Rogers Observational and Modeling Study of Hurricane Rainbands.
Weather. Making Weather Forecasts  Weather Measurements are Made  Measurements are Put Into Weather Forecast Models  The Models are Interpreted.
Unit 4 Lesson 5 Weather Maps and Weather Prediction
A Few Words on Hurricane Forecasts
Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Research Section
Predictability and forecast evaluation of ensemble simulations of long-lived Hurricane Nadine (2012)
Tropical Cyclones: What Have We Learned and Where Are We Going?
Xuexing Qiu and Fuqing Dec. 2014
Microwave Assimilation in Tropical Cyclones
Advisor: Dr. Fuqing Zhang
Shu-Chih Yang1,Kuan-Jen Lin1, Takemasa Miyoshi2 and Eugenia Kalnay2
Rosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Data Assimilation Research Section
A Simple, Fast Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm for Risk Models
Dynamics and predictability of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) Erin Munsell Fall 2015 Group Meeting December 11th, 2015.
Advisor: Dr. Fuqing Zhang
Jianyu Liang (York U.) Yongsheng Chen (York U.) Zhiquan Liu (NCAR)
Alan F. Srock and Lance F. Bosart
Coupled atmosphere-ocean simulation on hurricane forecast
Vortex Initialization of the Atmospheric Model in HWRF
Development and applications of an index for tropical cyclone genesis
Lecture 5: General Circulation of the Atmosphere
Hui Liu, Jeff Anderson, and Bill Kuo
Part of the ASAP program
Dynamics and Predictability of Hurricane Humberto Jason Sippel and Fuqing Zhang Texas A&M / Penn. State Contributor: Yonghui Weng, TAMU.
台风的暖心结构与强度变化(1) 储可宽 组会.
QINGNONG XIAO, XIAOLEI ZOU, and BIN WANG*
Peter May and Beth Ebert CAWCR Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Presentation transcript:

Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability: Advances and Challenges Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center Massachusetts Institute of Technology In collaboration with Fuqing Zhang

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Some successes….

…and some failures:

Some Issues: What are the main sources of remaining track error? Model error? Initial conditions? Forecasts of the large-scale environment? What are the main sources of intensity error? Track error? Large scale atmospheric environment? Oceanic environment? Can we estimate realistic upper bounds on predictability of track and intensity?

Approach: Control and perturbation experiments with the MIT TC risk model (“perfect model” approach) Begin with monthly potential intensity and mid-level humidity, and daily winds from NCAR/NCEP reanalyses Storms are seeded randomly around the world Seeds move according to a beta-and-advection model CHIPS intensity model predicts their intensity evolution Only a small fraction of seeds intensify to TS strength or greater; rest are discarded: genesis by natural selection We generate 3500 storms from 1980 to 2014 Perturbations: Each control storm above is re-simulated, perturbing Initial intensity by +3 kts Allowing environmental shear to de-correlate from control over 25 days Both of the above Allow de-correlating environmental winds to affect track Same as above but add 3 kts to initial intensity

Description of Perturbation Experiments Number of Overlapping Cases Initial intensity only 3 knots added to initial intensity. 2711 Shear only Shear decorrelates from control over 25 days. Track and initial intensity identical to control. 2916 Shear + initial intensity 3 knots added to initial intensity and shear decorrelates from control over 25 days. Track identical to control. 2656 Track Winds (affecting shear and steering) decorrelate from control over 25 days. Tracks respond to changing steering flow. 2204 Track + initial intensity Same as track but 3 knots added to initial intensity. 2051

Blue curve: Track errors resulting from environmental winds decorrelating over 25 days Red dots: NHC Atlantic track errors, 2000-2015

Sources of Intensity Error (Emanuel and Zhang, JAS, 2016)

+ 3 kts initial intensity error

+ 3 kts initial intensity error Shear only

Initial V + shear + 3 kts initial intensity error Shear only

Track Initial V + shear + 3 kts initial intensity error Shear only

Track Initial V + shear Initial + track + 3 kts initial intensity error Shear only

NHC 2009-2015 Track Initial V + shear Initial + track + 3 kts initial intensity error Shear only

The Critical Importance of Inner Core Moisture

Initial inner core moisture error Track Initial V + shear Initial + track + 3 kts initial intensity error Shear only

Example of bad intensity forecast: Hurricane Joaquin, 2015

WRF ensemble with environment relaxed towards GFS (Fuqing Zhang with Robert Nystrom and Erin Munsell)

Retain core moisture perturbations only

WRF ensemble with initial moisture perturbations only

Initial inner core moisture errors only CHIPS hindcasts Initial intensity errors only Initial inner core moisture errors only

Initial Intensity Evolution Highly Sensitive to Inner Core Moisture! How to Initialize Inner Core Moisture? 1. Better observations of tropospheric water vapor within ~250 km 2. Make use of high sensitivity of intensification rate to inner core moisture

Real-time CHIPS forecasts: Inner core moisture variable is initialized by matching observed rate of intensification Hindcast of Hurricane Ivan, 2004 Matching period

Initializing inner core moisture: Prospects for operational, detailed inner core moisture measurements not very good. Instead: Aim for more better intensity observations with more time continuity, and Data assimilation systems that, explicitly or implicitly, make use of the high correlation between inner core moisture and rate of intensification

Continuous TC monitoring: Solar UAV with X-band Doppler

Summary Progress in TC track predictions will ultimately be limited by predictability of large-scale flow Intensity errors dominated by initial intensity and inner core moisture errors out to 3-5 days; thereafter by track and environmental shear errors To reduce 3-5 day intensity errors, we need better observations of time-evolving intensity and data assimilation systems that explicitly or implicitly account for the strong correlation between inner core moisture and intensification. Current difficulties will not be solved by better models alone. Much is at stake: We must think hard about and ultimately advocate strongly for better ways of measuring TCs globally

Summary (continued) We should strongly consider migrating away from the traditional dichotomy of track and intensity errors, recognizing that at longer lead times, intensity error is dominated by track error. Predicting and scoring probabilistic intensity forecasts at fixed points in space is more societally relevant.