Balance of payments and Exchange Rates

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Presentation transcript:

Balance of payments and Exchange Rates

Balance of payments & exchange rates The balance of payments account Example of UK balance of payments

Balance of payments & exchange rates The balance of payments account The current account

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

Current account balance as % of GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003

Current account balance as % of GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003 UK

Current account balance as % of GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003 UK USA

Current account balance as % of GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003 Japan UK USA

Balance of payments & exchange rates The balance of payments account The capital account

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

Balance of payments & exchange rates The balance of payments account The financial account

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

Balance of payments & exchange rates The balance of payments account The overall balance of payments

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

Balance of payments & exchange rates

Sterling exchange rates: 1980–2003

Sterling exchange rates: 1980–2003

Sterling exchange rates: 1980–2003

Sterling exchange rates: 1980–2003

Balance of payments & exchange rates Determination of the exchange rate

Determination of the rate of exchange $ price of £ Q of £

Determination of the rate of exchange $ price of £ D by USA Q of £

Determination of the rate of exchange S by UK b a QD QS $ price of £ D by USA Q of £

Determination of the rate of exchange S by UK $ price of £ d c QS QD D by USA Q of £

Balance of payments & exchange rates Changes in the exchange rate

Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium € / £ D1 Q of £

Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium € / £ D1 Q of £

Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium € / £ D1 D2 Q of £

Balance of payments & exchange rates Speculation against exchange rate movements

Stabilising speculation er1 Exchange rate D1 O Quantity of £s

Stabilising speculation er1 Exchange rate er2 D1 D2 O Quantity of £s

Stabilising speculation er1 er3 Exchange rate er2 D1 D2 D3 O Quantity of £s

Destabilising speculation er1 Exchange rate D1 O Quantity of £s

Destabilising speculation er1 er2 Exchange rate D1 D2 O Quantity of £s

Destabilising speculation er1 er2 Exchange rate er3 D1 D3 D2 O Quantity of £s

Balance of payments & exchange rates Movements in the sterling exchange rate over time

$ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003

$ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003

$ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003 1990=100 $ / £

$ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003 1990=100 $ / £

Balance of payments & exchange rates Movements in the dollar/euro exchange rate from 1999 to 2003

Fluctuations between the euro and the dollar

Fluctuations between the euro and the dollar US interest rate

Fluctuations between the euro and the dollar US interest rate ECB interest rate

Fluctuations between the euro and the dollar US interest rate $ / € ECB interest rate $ / €