ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION IN SOUTH EAST EUROPE Jože Mencinger, Franjo Štiblar

1. Introduction (Mencinger) 1.1. Basic Macroeconomic Concepts 1.1.1. GDP: components, measurement problems, comparisons among countries 1.1.2. Economic growth 1.1.3. Internal and external stability 1.1.4. Economic Performance and Social Cohesion 1.2. Determinants of economic system – ownership and macro-decision making 1.3. Specific features and phases of economic, social, and political developments in SEE (Western Balkans) before 1990

2. Transition (Mencinger) 2.1. Privatization - complexities of privatization - privatization models - outcomes of privatization 2.2. Macroeconomic stabilization - assumptions and Washington agreement - transformational depression 2.3. Microeconomic restructuring 2.4. A Case: Slovenia; Could SEE countries follow Slovenian experiences?

3. South East European countries (Štiblar) 3.1. Historical background 3.2. Theoretical background 3.2.1. National Identities 3.2.2. Theory of conflict solutions and application to Western Balkans 3.2.3. Partition of countries as a solution 3.3. The role of foreign stakeholders 3.3.1. SEE – EU and CEE 3.3.2. SEE – US 3.3.3 SEE - international institutions

4. Current Situation in SEE (Štiblar) 4.1. Political situation 4.2. Economic situation 4.2.1. Current economic situation and forecasts 4.2.2. Macro economic policies 4.2.3. Trade as a major instrument of cooperation 4.2.4. Mezzo and micro economic situation and policies, business environment 4.2.4.1. Financial sector (banking, insurance, capital markets) 4.2.4.2. Real sector (manufacturing, transportation, construction, trade and tourism) 4.2.4.3. External financial flows to the region: aid, loans, FDIs 4.3. Demographic trends, social stability and social cohesion

5. Solutions (Štiblar) 5.1. Visions and principles 5.2. Recommendations: actions, activities, institutions