Brian David Johnson BDJ.Futurist@gmail.com @BDJFuturist A Widening Attack Plain Initial Cyber Threatcasting Report out for Mad Scientist Brian David Johnson BDJ.Futurist@gmail.com @BDJFuturist
Contents Who am I? A Overview of the Futurecasting and Threatcasting Process Initial Report Out: ACI Threatcasting Next Steps
Who am I? Age 13
Who am I? Age 13
Who am I? Nerd! Age 13
Who am I? Nerd! NERD! Age 13
Futurecasting? - Isaac Asimov “Predicting the future is a hopeless, thankless task, with ridicule to begin with and, all too often, scorn to end with.” - Isaac Asimov
Futurecasting Process Data w/ an opinion Trends Technical SF Proto Vision for 2026 Future we want Future we want to avoid Social Uncertainty is the land of innovation Vision 2016 2026 Gate 2019 Flag 2023
Threatcasting Process Data w/ an opinion Trends Technical SF Proto Vision for 2026 Future we want Future we want to avoid Social Uncertainty is the land of innovation Vision 2016 2026 Gate 2019 Flag 2023
Threatcasting Process Data w/ an opinion Trends Technical SF Proto Vision for 2026 Future we want Future we want to avoid Social Uncertainty is the land of innovation Vision 2016 2026 Disrupt Event Mitigate Recover
ACI Threatcasting 8/16/16 and 8/17/16
Agenda: Day One 8:00 am to 9:00am: Gather and Breakfast 9:00 am to 9:15am: Kick Off 9:15 am to 9:30am: Agenda Review and Threatcasting Overview (BDJ) 9:30am to 10:30am: Research Inputs Round 1 Groups and Exercise Explanation Slot 1: (15min) Steven L. Neuberg, PhD, Lab Director and Principal Investigator Slot 2: (15min) Brian David Johnson “The Rise of Sentient Machines” Slot 3: (15min) Fernando Maymi “10 years from Now – ACI Perspective” 10:30am to 11:00am: Break
Agenda: Day One 11:00am to 12:00pm: Research Inputs Round 2 Slot 4: (15min) Jamie Winterton- Director, Strategy in the Global Security Initiative “Competitive analysis of university cyber security centers” Slot 5: (15min) Sharon Rice Strategist – APICS “The Weakest Link - Cyber Threats and the Future of the Global Supply Chain” Slot 6: (15min) Aaron Brantly #Tech4Terror and the Future of Jihad Slot 7: (15min) CyberSecurity Futures 2020 12:00am to 1:30pm Lunch and Research Synthesis Exercise (Break in Groups Work with Synthesis Worksheet) 1:30pm to 2:30pm Research Synthesis Exercise Report Out
Agenda: Day One 2:30pm to 4:00pm Threatcasting Exercise Directional Chat w/ Chris Claremont (Break into Groups Work with Threatcasting Worksheet) 4:00pm to 4:10pm Break 4:10pm to 4:45pm Threatcasting Exercise Report Out 4:45pm to 5:00pm Wrap up and Next Steps
Agenda: Day Two 8:00 am to 9:00am: Gather and Breakfast (NOTE: BDJ to join at 9am) 9:00 am to 9:15am: Kick Off (ACI) 9:15 am to 9:30am: Agenda Review, Review Previous Day and Threatcasting Exercise (BDJ) 9:30am to 10:30am: Threatcasting Exercise (Break into Groups Work with Threatcasting Worksheet) 10:30am to 10:45am: Break 10:45am to 11:30am: Groups Finalize Threatcasting Worksheet 11:30am to 12:00pm: Threatcasting Report Out General Threatcasting Session Ends
Agenda: Day Two 12:00am to 1:00pm Lunch Core Team Gathers 1:00pm to 2:00pm Review Event and Clustering Discussion 2:00pm to 3:00pm Backcasting Exercise: Gates and Flags (Break into Groups Work with Threatcasting Backcast Worksheet ) 3:00pm to 3:15pm Break 3:14pm to 4:00pm Report Out 4:00pm to 4:30pm Rapid Exercise: Stand For / Stand Against 4:30pm – END Wrap up and Next Steps
Curated Inputs = Specific Focus Artificial Intelligence Complex Automated Systems Supply Chain Disruptions Terrorist and Technology
Actors Vandals Hacktivists Criminals Criminals (State Sponsored) Terrorists Terrorists (State Sponsored) Terrorists / Hacktivists State Actors Corporate Espionage / Destabilization
Frameworks: A Note In threatcasting, frameworks are used to gather together and organize for use the large amount of data we produce. They provide us a way to dig even deeper and process new information. They are the tools used to measure, evaluate and take action.
Framework: A Widening Attack Plain Blended Attacks Uncertainty is the land of innovation Data/Digital Social Physical Kinetic
Framework: A Widening Attack Plain Traditional Warfare / Blended Cyber Warfare Blended Attacks Uncertainty is the land of innovation Go Dark / Brown Out / Supply Chain / Automated Systems Influence / Destabilize / Attack / Micro-targeting Criminal / Hack & Release / Espionage Data/Digital Social Physical Kinetic
Framework: A Widening Attack Plain Blended Attacks Uncertainty is the land of innovation Data/Digital Social Physical Kinetic
Framework: A Widening Attack Plain (Day 1) Seven Five Three Blended Attacks Uncertainty is the land of innovation Four Six Two One Data/Digital Social Physical Kinetic
Framework: A Widening Attack Plain (Day 2) Nine Thirteen Eight Blended Attacks Uncertainty is the land of innovation Seven Ten Fourteen Twelve Data/Digital Social Physical Kinetic
Framework: A Widening Attack Plain (Combined) Nine Thirteen Eight Ten Seven Five Seven Twelve Blended Attacks Uncertainty is the land of innovation Fourteen Three Two Six Four One Data/Digital Social Physical Kinetic
Preliminary 10+ year Threats Vulnerabilities of Complex Automated Systems Efficiency is easy to hack Weaponization of Data Data + Social Destabilization of trust Offense against algorithms and Complex Automated Systems Weaponization of A.I. Weapon vs Watching the plain Physical Vulnerabilities (Global Supply Chain) Weak links at the fringes Defense & Industry
Preliminary 4-8 year Milestones “Go Dark” Plans Cyber Amber Alerts New Norms and New Roles Identify Critical Economic and Security Efficiency is Easy to Hack Redefine Human interaction in complex automated systems Broader Public/Industry/Academia Conversation
Next Steps Final Report Out – CyCon U.S. - October 21-23rd 2016 Article Series Industry Report Outs Academic Collaboration 2017 Cyber Threatcasting
Back Up
Framework: A Widening Attack Plain Blended Attacks Uncertainty is the land of innovation Data/Digital Social Physical Kinetic
Framework: A Widening Attack Plain Blended Attacks Uncertainty is the land of innovation Data/Digital Social Physical Kinetic