Economists Incorporated Florida Clerks of Court Similarly- Situated Groups: Preliminary Review and Discussion for 2016 Report Benjamin S. Shippen Vice President Economists Incorporated Washington DC Suite 1100 2121 K Street, NW Washington DC 20037 Tel (202) 223-4700 Fax (202) 296-7138 info@ei.com San Francisco, CA Suite 1000 101 Mission Street San Francisco, CA 94105 Tel (415) 975-5510 Fax (415) 281-9151 Tallahassee, FL 32312 Suite 303 1276 Metropolitan Blvd. Tel (850) 558-6030 1

Presentation Outline I. Review of 2012 and 2014 reports II. Challenges encountered in modeling the previous reports III. Model changes under consideration IV. Discussion of additional suggestions 2

I. 2012 Groups Report Important model issues Model 1 estimated the 2011-2012 operational budget We controlled for population and for each case type, new and re-opened Model 2 also estimated budget with the same factors used in Model 1, but excluded Civil Traffic cases 3

I. 2012 Groups Report (cont.) Important results Model 1 with Civil Traffic cases didn’t predict budgets very well in Groups 1 and 2 (the smaller groups) Model 2 fit the data better for all groups Recommended six peer groups from five previously; with some movement between groups based on the model results 4

I. 2014 Groups Report Important changes to the model We estimated the final 2012 model with 2013-14 data We determined that we could fit the data better by consolidating some of the case types (e.g. county and circuit criminal cases) Civil Traffic cases again were excluded 5

I. 2014 Groups Report (cont.) New model results The model results suggested seven groups, up from six, with Miami-Dade as the only county in group seven Groups again based on estimated budget levels Some counties moved between groups 6

II. Challenges with 2012 and 2014 models Estimating budget levels, not changes in levels Levels are largely an artifact of previous budgets Groups are comprised of similarly-sized counties often with different caseloads Estimating counties with geographic differences Population density effects 7

III. Potential Changes to the Groups Model Comparing the mix of cases to adjust for differing costs of caseloads Comparing budget (and factor) changes in addition to levels Consideration of actual versus predicted budgeted expenditures using historical data 8

III. Potential Data and Model Changes (cont.) Evaluating differences in clerk office funding Consideration of weighted workload effects Consideration of population density effects Proposing groups based on factors other than total predicted budget ranges 9

IV. Discussion of additional suggestions Your ideas 10