Divergent Trajectories of Political Change: Guatemala and Costa Rica Maxwell A. Cameron UBC Poli 332

Source: http://ian.macky.net/pat/map/camr/camrblk.gif

Guatemala GDP per capita = $3,900 Ratio of incomes of wealthiest 10% to poorest 10% of population = 63 Largest country (9.8 million); very heterogeneous: 56% Ladino, 44% Indian. Adult literacy 67%. Percentage of the population over 25 with no schooling = 47% Reformist government in deposed in 1954 by CIA Three decades of genocidal violence Peace accords signed in 1996 Guatemala remains one of the most corrupt, violent, and least free countries in the Western Hemisphere Formally democratic, but a “shadow state” exists, or garrison state

Costa Rica GDP per capita: $5,900 Ratio of incomes of wealthiest 10% to poorest 10% of population = 25 Exceptionalism? More egalitarian, large class of small farmers; small (3.2 million) socially and racially homogeneous country. 96% white, 2% black, 1% Indian, 1% Chinese. Adult literacy rate 95%. Major investments in education during the 20th Century. Percentage of the population over 25 with no schooling = Costa Rica 9% Social consensus and constitutional politics. Civil war 1948-52 leads to a democratic settlement. Continuation of peaceful, democratic transfers of power in Costa Rica.

Thesis The diverging (path dependent) trajectories of Guatemala and Costa Rica can be explained by both structural conditions and political processes. 19th Century a “critical juncture” (Mahoney 2001: 111). Reform periods after 1930 reflect choices made in 19th Century We cannot disentangle the two in these cases, because they coincide, but high levels of repression appear to be a crucial theme.

Guatemala and Costa Rica: Structural Conditions Vice-Royalty: important colonial centre Large indigenous population Large plantations, e.g. bananas Extractivist: mining Costa Rica Marginal to colony, few settlers, mainly subsistence farmers Small indigenous population No labor-repressive agriculture Not extractivist

Modal Patterns I & II 19th C to 1930 1940-1980s 1980-2000 2000- Agro-ex economy Reform and aftermath Neoliberalism No left turns Pattern I: Guatemala Long period of anarchy Liberal Oligarchy Radical populism Highly repressive authoritarianism Democracy of low intensity citizenship Pattern II: Costa Rica Moderate populism, brief civil war (1948) Short period of anarchy Constitutional oligarchy “progressive democracy”

Historical Periods: Guatemala From Vice Royalty to capital of United Provinces of Central America (1823-1838) Liberal oligarchy (1871-1944) Populist reforms: October Revolution (1944-1954) Internal War (1954-1985) Democratization and neoliberalism (1985- )

1. United Provinces of Central America Formed after Mexico declares independence Came apart in 1838, followed by intense conflict between Liberals and Conservatives Liberals wanted free enterprise and small state; dispossession of indigenous peoples Conservatives linked to Catholic Church, represented powerful threat to liberals

2. Liberal Oligarchy, 1873-44 General Justo Rufino Barrios (1873-1885) – establishes Liberal Oligarchy, endures until 1944 Extensive effort to privatize land and creation of large estates (see Mahoney 2001: 117) Highly coercive: plantation economy emerges, involving forced labor on estates & debt peonage Indigenous displaced and dispossessed Perception of threat leads to militarism and a highly repressive oligarchy (see Mahoney 2001: 120). (Mechanism of institutional reproduction)

3. Populist Reforms, 1944-54 Overthrow of Jorge Ubico dictatorship (1931-44) Decade of democracy Juan Jose Arevalo (1944-1950) Jacobo Arbenz (1950-54) Populist policies Agrarian Reform Law (expropriation of United Fruit) Unionization Participation of Communists in Arbenz government

4. Coup, Repression, Internal Conflict CIA-backed coup in 1954 United Fruit – John Foster Dulles Origin of guerrillas (FAR, MR-13) Counter-insurgency No ISI: “immiserating growth” and crony capitalism

5. Low-Intensity Democracy, 1985- Vicente Cerezo 1985 Peace talks 1987 Establishment of “Counter-Insurgent Constitutional State” Peace Accords with MINUGUA – UN Verification Mission Problems with Peace Accords 1999 referendum

Historical Periods: Costa Rica Liberal Republic (1820-1948) Civil War (1948) Progressive democracy (1949- ) Neoliberalism (1980- )

1. Liberal Republic, 1820-1948 Independence and rapid consolidation of constitutional oligarchy Less coercive state (no dispute over indigenous lands – small indigenous communities persist) Privatization of municipal lands Small-scale & medium-sized agriculture promoted, based on coffee. More egalitarian distribution of land Liberal-Conservative cleavage attenuated (Catholic Church weak) Low perception of threat, did not build repressive army (Mahoney 2001: 121). Government policies to promote literacy and health care

2. Civil War (1948) 1930s Depression: hurts coffee producers Coffee Pact negotiated “Coffee oligarchy” elects Rafael Calderon (1940-44), to implement welfare reforms Rise of populist Jose Pepe Figueroa Insurrection and 5 weeks of conflict (2000 killed) Calderon and Figueroa find common ground New constitution

3. Progressive Democracy (since 1949) Stable social democracy Balanced constitution Military abolished Strong public sector Political parties institutionalized Judicial independence and rule of law ISI

4. Neoliberalism (since 1980s) Crisis in 1980s – ISI debt, inflation, oil shocks Conflict in Central America and US aid Shift to neoliberalism with effort to retain social programs Weakening of unions Costa Rica’s contributions to the Peace process in Central America Sustainability initiatives

Summary Guatemala: Ruthless repression of protest after 1930 Decade of democracy overthrown in 1954 Guerrilla conflict lasts for three decades Low-intensity democracy Costa Rica: Accommodation and reform Brief civil war leads to democratic settlement Stable “citizens’” democracy ever since

Conclusion: The Impact of Repression A key link between structural conditions and political process is the use of repression to maintain the status quo Guatemala: 200,000 deaths during internal conflicts (1960s-1980s), 83% Mayans; 150k exiles; 1.5 m internal refugees As much violence today in Guatemala as during the internal conflicts – façade of democracy Costa Rica has been an oasis of stability and a peace-broker in the region

Further Discussion: Path Dependency Based on your reading of James Mahoney (2001) “Path Dependent Explanations of Regime Change”: What is “path dependency”? What is a “critical juncture”? What is “institutional reproduction”? What were the critical junctures in Guatemala and Costa Rica?

Guatemala City Dump