Validating Integrated Assessment Framework TLG presentation to Community Stakeholder Group Healthy Rivers CSG 12 2 July 2015

Healthy Rivers Policy Process Desired Values Setting Attribute Levels Water quality (N, P, Sed., bacteria) consistent with Desired Values Scenario Analysis – looking at future options for Limits on point and non-point losses from land Integrated assessment across Values to provide CSG with social, economic, cultural & ecological analysis CSG deliberations CSG Focus Statement e.g., safe to swim, take food, provide well being) Can be ‘alternative’ detail below that CSG outcomes TLG advises, using: Guidelines e.g., NOF Existing information Experts input Assess options against Values & risk Consensus? Seek further scenarios? TLG, using experts for: Predictive modelling Non-market valuation studies

Gives positive social and community benefits Outcome Policy Criteria Indicators Gives positive social and community benefits Minimise social disruption Provide social benefit Enhance use of river Take account of unique features and benefits Outcomes people identify with, own and feel proud of Employment from a social perspective Types and diversity of jobs New employment opportunities Geographical spread of jobs Security of key regional infrastructure e.g. waste, water, energy Affordable (over time) and reliable Sufficient recognized access to the river for recreation e.g. sport

Gives positive social and community benefits Health, clinic, doctors Outcome Policy Criteria Indicators Gives positive social and community benefits Minimise social disruption Provide social benefit Enhance use of river Take account of unique features and benefits Outcomes people identify with, own and feel proud of Community Vitality Health, clinic, doctors Service clubs Volunteers Broad Band access Sports clubs Kindi, plunkett Marae Church Stream care groups Schools Amenity areas Community pride Demographic diversity

Economic Outcome Policy Criteria Indicators Minimise social disruption Provide social benefit Enhance use of river Take account of unique features and benefits Outcomes people identify with, own and feel proud of Jobs created and lost along the value chain Resilience of farm business to cope with volatility now and into the future (e.g. policy change plus external events including drought, water restrictions) Debt level Effective Farm surplus Industry continues to invest Retained industry confidence Change in land use values over time Economic opportunity to allow for new business Allow resources to go for highest value Creation of new industry

Outcome Policy Criteria Indicators Achieves the restoration and protection of native habitats and biodiversity Minimise social disruption Provide social benefit Enhance use of river Take account of unique features and benefits Outcomes people identify with, own and feel proud of Improved ecosystem health e.g. effective riparian management; the protection and restoration of wetlands / floodplains; unique habitats including peat lakes, shallow riverine lakes and the karst formations

Visualising the integration Model solutions Model solutions A B Catchment scale FMU scale

Assessing the acceptability of the impact of the model solutions Outcome Narrative Judgement Does this scenario deliver acceptable restoration and protection of native habitats and biodiversity Increase in riparian planting occurs under community catchment schemes. Does this scenario deliver acceptable positive social and community benefits Catchment consists of thriving sustainable communities with high social capital. Local residents enjoy a ‘sense of place’ and community identity, full employment and opportunities for financially viable businesses. Provides for Maori cultural aspirations Riparian planting corridors block access

Visualising the integration iterations Model solutions 1st iteration Model solutions 2nd iteration A A Catchment scale Solution package FMU scale

Healthy Rivers Policy Process Desired Values Setting Attribute Levels Water quality (N, P, Sed., bacteria) consistent with Desired Values Scenario Analysis – looking at future options for Limits on point and non-point losses from land Integrated assessment across Values to provide CSG with social, economic, cultural & ecological analysis CSG deliberations CSG Focus Statement e.g., safe to swim, take food, provide well being) Can be ‘alternative’ detail below that CSG outcomes TLG advises, using: Guidelines e.g., NOF Existing information Experts input Assess options against Values & risk Consensus? Seek further scenarios? TLG, using experts for: Predictive modelling Non-market valuation studies

Identification of a solution package Models have indicated the relative change in activities that have to occur to meet the scenario The integrated assessment allows the impacts of these activities to be deliberated The deliberation will involve identification of the solutions e.g. activities represented in the model, time to implement, policy etc.