How The Mountain West States Voted in 2016:

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How The Mountain West States Voted in 2016: Post-Election Analysis of Trends, Demographics, and Politics in America’s New Swing Region Brookings Mountain West ©2016

Brookings Mountain West ©2016 Who Voted? David Damore, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Political Science, UNLV Fellow, Brookings Mountain West Brookings Mountain West ©2016

Brookings Mountain West ©2016 Voter Turnout, 2012 and 2016 State 2012 2016 Registered Age Eligible AZ 74.4% 53.0% 57.1% 43.2% CO 71.2% 70.6% 69.3% 65.6% NV 80.8% 56.5% 76.7% NM 62.7% 54.8% 61.9% 54.7% UT 80.2% 56.1% 60.7% 42.8% Data from state election returns and United States Elections Project Brookings Mountain West ©2016

Brookings Mountain West ©2016 Exit Polls, 2016 State White Black Latino Asian Other Share D R AZ 75% 39% 52% 2% - 16% 60% 30% 5% CO 78% 45% 47% 4% 12% 67% 3% NV 62% 56% 9% 81% 18% 29% 6% 36% 46% NM 49% 42% 1% 40% 54% 33% 53% UT 86% 25% 0% 63% 24% Data from Election Polling Services, Edison Research In 2012 the Exit Polls estimated that Mitt Romney won 25% (AZ), 23% (CO), NV (24%), and 29% (NM) of the Latino vote In 2016 Latino Decisions estimated that Donald Trump won 12% (AZ), 16% (CO), and 16% (NV) of the Latino vote (+/- 4.9 percentage points) Brookings Mountain West ©2016

Errors in the Exit Polls Exit Polls are one (of many) attempts to measure voting behavior Exit Polls were created to assist news organizations interpret outcomes Exit Polls draw voters from a handful of precincts and they do not select many high-density Latino, African American, or Asian American precincts Increases in early voting means that Exit Polls are now done partially by phone Brookings Mountain West ©2016

Errors in the Exit Polls Exit Polls demographics of Latinos do not match reality Few interviews are completed in Spanish (25 to 30% of Latino voters prefer Spanish) Compared to the CPS, Exit Polls typically have 11 to 12% more college graduates and 5% more respondents with above-median incomes Exit Polls for Latino voters are inconsistent with high-quality, large sample pre-election polls and actual results Brookings Mountain West ©2016

Brookings Mountain West ©2016 Source: “Lies, Damn Lies, and Exit Polls…”, Gary Segura and Matt Barreto, Huffington Post, 11/9/16 Brookings Mountain West ©2016

Brookings Mountain West ©2016 The Latino Vote David Damore, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Political Science, UNLV Fellow, Brookings Mountain West Brookings Mountain West ©2016

Brookings Mountain West ©2016 The Latino Electorate Latino voters in the Mountain West were critical if not decisive in Hillary Clinton’s wins in Colorado (9 EC votes), New Mexico (5 EC votes), and Nevada (6 EV votes) In Arizona (10 EC votes, increased Latino turnout helped to close the GOP margin (Romney + 10.1 versus Trump + 4.3) and defeat Sheriff Joe Arpaio Brookings Mountain West ©2016

The Latino Electorate in Nevada 26% were first time voters 43% of those 39 or younger 53% named immigration reform their top issue priority, followed by jobs and the economy (33%) 11% cited anti-immigrant or Latino discrimination 60% decided who to vote for president more than six months ago Brookings Mountain West ©2016

The Latino Electorate in Nevada 45% responded that they voted to support and represent the Latino community 34% voted to support Democratic candidates (37% contacted by Democrats) 9% voted to support Republican candidates (16% contacted by Republicans) 82% support DACA and 66% oppose GOP efforts to kill the implementation of DAPA 81% said immigration was the most important or one of the most important issues in their vote choice 68% know a family member, friend, or co-worker who is undocumented Brookings Mountain West ©2016

Contours of the Latino Vote in Nevada Candidate All Men Women Spanish < $40k No College 18 to 39 1st Time Voter Dem Rep Other President Clinton 81% 74% 88% 90% 86% 85% 89% 92% 98% 17% Trump 16% 23% 10% 9% 12% 7% 4% 1% 79% 19% U.S. Senate Cortez- Masto 76% 82% 87% 97% 13% 71% Heck 22% 15% 25% U.S. House of Representatives Democrat 83% 77% 91% 99% 18% 75% Republican 20% 8% Source: 2016 Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll, Nevada Sample, n = 400 (moe +/4.9 percentage points) Brookings Mountain West ©2016

How The Mountain West States Voted in 2016: Post-Election Analysis of Trends, Demographics, and Politics in America’s New Swing Region Brookings Mountain West ©2016