NYSE: MCS Analysts: Xiwei Ma Yongtong Li Li Ren Yuhao Qi Presented April 20, 2017
Agenda Company Overview Macroeconomy & Industry Analysis 1 Company Overview 2 Macroeconomy & Industry Analysis 3 Business Analysis 4 Financial Analysis 5 Multiple Valuation 6 Financial Projection 7 DCF Valuation 8 Recommendation
1 Company Overview
Company Overview Basic Information Shareholdings Holder % Of CSO Marcus, Stephen H. (Chairman) 17.367 Gershowitz, Diane Marcus (Director) 11.26 BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) 8.129 Dimensional Fund Advisors LP 5.783 GAMCO Investors, Inc. (NYSE:GBL) 5.26 Northern Trust Global Investments 3.371 The Vanguard Group, Inc. 3.322 Wellington Management Group LLP 2.567 State Street Global Advisors, Inc. 1.628 Morgan Dempsey Capital Management, LLC 1.558 Founded in 1935 Headquarter in Milwaukee, Wisconsin Leader in Lodging and Entertainments Major Division Forth Largest in U.S. 885 screens at 68 Locations in 8 states Portfolio of 18 distinctive properties Manage ~5,000 rooms in 9 states Source: Investor Presentation 2017 http://investors.marcuscorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=99966&p=irol-presentations Source: 10-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/62234/000114420417014538/v461229_10k.htm
Share Market Prospects Key Statistics Portfolio Weightage By Market Value Current Stock Price $31 Beta 1.03 Market Capitalization $866 Mn 50-Day Moving Average 31.15 Total Enterprise Value $1.18 Bn 200-Day Moving Average 29.64 P/E Ratio 23.05x 52 Week Range $18.6 –$32.6 Source: Yahoo Finance https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCS/key-statistics?p=MCS Share Price Performance Source: Yahoo Finance https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCS/key-statistics?p=MCS
2 Macro & Industry Analysis
Movie Theatre Industry Disposable Income per Capita Major Market Segments Age 18-24 Age 40+ Age 25-39 Age 0-17 Source::IBISWorld Source::IBISWorld Revenue Segmentations Industry Revenue Others Past 5 yr CAGR: 3.75% Food and Beverage Admissions Source::IBISWorld Source::IBISWorld
Movie Theater Industry Key Factors Threats of Substitutes: High Technology Change Others Threats of Existing Players: High
Hotels and Resorts Industry Major Market Segments Domestic trips by US residents Past 5 yr CAGR: 2.43% Source::IBISWorld Inbound trips by non-US residents Past 5 yr CAGR: 5.36% Source::IBISWorld Source::IBISWorld
Hotels and Resorts Industry Key Factors Increasing trips Low hotel development Demand > Supply Higher RevPAR Room Revenue = # Rooms * RevPAR = # Rooms * (Occupancy percentage * Average Daily room Rate)
3 Business Analysis
Product & Service Theatre Hotel & Resort 68 theatres with a total of 885 screens DreamLounger premium recliner seating Offering food and beverage UltraScreen DLX & SuperScreen DLX $5 Tuesday promotion Magic Movie Rewards, 2 million members Eight company majority-owned and operate properties Manage 10 properties for other owners Own and manage around 5000 rooms Food and Beverage Source: MCS 10K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/62234/000114420417014538/v461229_10k.htm Source: Investor Presentation 2017, http://investors.marcuscorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=99966&p=irol-presentations
Win market Theatre Segment Source: Investor Presentation 2017, http://investors.marcuscorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=99966&p=irol-presentations
Pursue Expansion Opportunities-Theatre Acquisitions Building new theatres 1. Over 50% of existing circuit came from acquisitions 2. Acquired 213 screens at 15 locations in F2016 3. Pursuing additional opportunistic acquisitions where we could create value by leveraging our innovative strategies 1. New 12-screen theatre in Sun Prairie, Wis. opened in April 2015 2. New 10-screen theatre in Shakopee, Minnesota under construction; opening Spring 2017 Source: MCS 10K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/62234/000114420417014538/v461229_10k.htm
Hotel & Resort Segment Source: Investor Presentation 2017, http://investors.marcuscorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=99966&p=irol-presentations
Hotel & Resort Segment Source: Investor Presentation 2017, http://investors.marcuscorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=99966&p=irol-presentations
Experienced Management Team Chairman of the Board since 1991 Joined the company in 1969 Served as CEO frim 1988 to 2009 Served as president from 1988 to 2008 Shares owned: 17.40% President and CEO since 2009 Joined the company in 1992 Shares owned: 1.11% CFO and Treasurer since 1996 Joined company in 1986 Shares owned: 0.19% Experienced Management Team Source: MCS Website, http://www.marcuscorp.com/investors/governance
SWOT Analysis Experienced management team Long-standing company in industry Long-term track record of continuous growth Market leadership with national presence W Properties are subject to risks relating to acts of god, terrorist activity and war Sales highly depend on weather Theatre segment depends on the quantity and quality of films T intense competition Sales made through third party internet travel intermediaries increases significantly Increases sales of other entertainment departments O Potential acquisitions Stable economic environment Management contracts with other parties
4 Financial Analysis
Financial Analysis Source: MCS 10K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/62234/000114420417014538/v461229_10k.htm
5 Multiple Valuation
Comparable Companies Source: Yahoo Finance, April 19, 2017 https://www.google.com/search?q=amc&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi0 tewrLLTAhVJxYMKHWeYD2AQ_AUICygE&biw=1163&bih=559#imgrc=DpANFqbI_BlYVM:
Financial Ratios Source: Yahoo Finance, April 19, 2017
Multiples Valuation Appreciation: Median to high Profitability and adequate long-term liquidity Punishment: Low current liquidity Source: Yahoo Finance, April 19, 2017
6 Financial Projection
Assumption Theatre: it is critical to figure out profitable acquisition opportunity Hotel & Resort: Faster increase in Revenue Per Available Room than nation and competitive sets Involve in hotel managing activities, which would save cost and broader profit margin CAPEX: a decreasing % of Revenue because of increasing hotel managing activities Source: MCS 10K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/62234/000114420417014538/v461229_10k.htm
7 DCF Valuation
Discount Rate Calculation WACC Method Annual Return Method CAPM Beta 1.03 Risk Free Rate 3.0% Market Premium 7.0% 10.2% Annual Realized Returns Year MCS S&P 500 5 19.37% 11.00% 4 26.65% 10.97% 3 20.63% 9.06% 2 24.14% 5.86% 1 60.30% 15.04% Average 30.22% 10.39% WACC Weighted Cost Of Equity 10% 42.98% Cost of Debt (after tax) 2% 57.02% 5% Business Premium Risk 1% Discount rate 6% Extremely high annual return in 2016 Might not be continuous in the future Weight 10% 9.0% 85% 30.2% 15% Discount Rate Source: April 19, 2017. Bloomberg
DCF Valuation Current Stock Price: $31.00 Perpetuity Method Exit Multiple Method Exit Multiple Method (mm) Terminal Year EBITDA $ 158.00 Comparable Companies EBITDA multiples 12.00 Terminal Value $ 1,895.94 Implied Enterprise Value $ 1,275.54 Less Net Debt $ 310.92 Implied Equity Value $ 964.62 Shares Outstanding 27.72 Implied Share Price $ 34.80 Perpetuity Method (mm) PV of total Free Cash Flow $ 98.31 PV of Terminal Value $ 432.32 Implied Enterprise Value $ 530.62 Less Net Debt $ 310.92 Implied Equity Value $ 219.70 Shares Outstanding 27.72 Implied Share Price $ 7.93 Current Stock Price: $31.00
8 Recommendation
Watch list Recommendation Experienced market player + Experienced market player + Skillful management team + Growing market and increasing customer demand Watch list - Weak DCF valuation results - Intense competition and mature industry - Business uncertainty and high business risks