TUIK, the Turkish Statistical Institute had been working on harmonizing its GDP calculation method with the most recent international standards from 2013 on. The first revised figures were published at the end of 2016. On the following pages, we intend to briefly display the volume of the revision related to construction investment. The latest final annual figures available at the time of this compilation (July 1, 2017) are about 2015.

The general direction of the revision was strongly upward... Before revision Source: TUIK, EECFA

GDP was revised upward by 20% for 2015 and within, construction was revised upward by more than 100%. After revision Source: TUIK, EECFA

Before revision, construction investment was recorded to be around TRY 180 bln (EUR 60 bln) for 2015. Before revision Source: TUIK, EECFA

After revision, it is measured to be TRY 380 bln (EUR 125 bln) for 2015. Source: TUIK, EECFA

Annual average real expansion of the constuction market was 7% for the 2010-2015 period before the revision. Before revision Source: TUIK, EECFA

And it was revised upward to an annual average of 13% for 2010-2015. After revision

Due to the revision, the market size from 2009 to 2015 doubled in real terms, instead of the around 50% expansion recorded earlier. Source: TUIK, EECFA

EECFA’s Opinion: Seeking confirmation about the level of revised figures, we turned to cross-country comparison where possible. In the new building construction submarket, the general living standard (assuming that this is a good approximation for relative prices of construction), completion and revised output were compared to Russia. It was a bit cheaper, at comparable prices, to construct in 2015 in Turkey, but more completed floor area was registered here than in Russia, as average of 2015-2016. Based on this, it seems realistic that output levels, on comparable basis, are close to one another in the two countries. (Before the revision, Turkey’s new building construction market was measured to be half as large as that of Russia for 2015.) We think that the revision has brought output figures more in line with the floor area figures in Turkey, adding that an upward revision of officially published construction cost figures is highly anticipated. Comparable living standard... near identical completion... could confirm alike output levels

Understanding that new data sources were applied concerning the public sector’s investment activity, previously used surveys were refined, their coverage was extended, and corrections of levels were made, it is still a long way to grab such a significant revision at its fullest. Looking at the occupancy permit statistics, for example, we see no historical upward revision in cost of construction (called value in the corresponding tables of TUIK). Furthermore, the Construction Production Index (part of the Short-term Business Statistics initiated by Eurostat) has been suspended until early 2018, until calculations based on new data sources will be carried out. This compilation will be amended with all incoming new information.