Danish Energy Industries Federation Annual Conference 30th April 2009 European climate change policy beyond 2012

The objectives of Task Force are: Terms of Reference The objectives of Task Force are: 1. To develop a long-term view about options for climate change policy in Europe; 2. To deliver long-term scenarios of GHG-emissions and abatement technologies including abatement costs and influence on energy prices; 3. To develop a view on the further development of the EU emissions trading scheme after 2012

Members of the Task Force Study chair Stefan Ulreich (Germany) Czech Republic Mr. Tomáš Chmelík France Christine Faure-Fedigan Nicole Dellero Germany Christian Güthert Uwe Maassen Heimo Friede Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer Italy Federico Rossi Alessandro Clerici Francesca Massara Massimo Ceccariglia Netherlands Theo. W. Fens Serbia Dr Miodrag Mesarovic Slovenia dr. Tomaž Štokelj Sweden Leif Halvorsen Switzerland Prof. Eberhard Jochem Dr. Marco Berg International Org. Paul Bulteel Nicola Rega John Scowcroft WEC Simon Godwin Observer Jean-Eudes Moncomble

Energy supply and transport General background Main sectors in EU-27: Energy supply and transport

European share on global GHG-emissions General background European share on global GHG-emissions

Comparison of the electricity generation General background Comparison of the electricity generation

General background Key messages: • GHG emissions are globally still rising • Major contributor is the fossil fuel combustion, especially for electricity production. • Technological solutions are present, but need time until they will contribute largely to a further GHG reduction • Europe will be part of the solution mainly in terms of clean technology development. • An effective combat against climate change needs a global solution. Europe can show the way and demonstrate efforts, but other important regions should move and establish their pathways.

The COP/MOP negotiations General climate policy The COP/MOP negotiations Date Location Main achievements COP 1 Berlin (Germany) Report of the Global Environment Facility to the Conference of the Parties on the development of an operational strategy and on initial activities in the field of climate change (matters relating to arrangements for the financial mechanism) COP 2 8-19 July 1996 Geneva (Switzerland) Activities implemented jointly: annual review of progress under the pilot phase Report of the Global Environment Facility to the Conference of the Parties COP 3 1-10 Dec 1997 Kyoto (Japan) Kyoto Protocol : Adoption of a protocol or another legal instrument: Fulfilment of the Berlin Mandate COP 4 2-13 Nov.1998 Buenos Aires (Argentina) Kyoto Protocol : Review of the implementation of commitments Development and transfer of technologies COP 5 25 Oct.–5 Nov. 1999 Bonn (Germany) Adoption of The Buenos Aires plan of actions on: The financial mechanism; Development and transfer of technologies Implementation of Article 4.8 and 4.9 of the Convention Activities implemented jointly under the pilot phase ; The work programme on mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol ; Preparatory work for a protocol ;and ensures achievement of the decisions within the mentioned time frame. COP 6 13-24 Nov. 2000 The Hague (The Netherlands) The Convention and its Protocol gave the world hope and direction. The challenge facing participants at the 6th Conference of the Parties (COP 6) to decide how to implement the goals agreed by Parties has not been achieved. COP 7 29 Oct.-9 Nov. 2001 Marrakech (Morocco) Success with the Marrakech Accords drafting the flexibility mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol (Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation plus trading of allowances) COP 8 23 Oct.–1 Nov. 2002 New-Delhi (India) The Delhi Ministerial Declaration On Climate Change and Sustainable Development COP 9 1-12 Dec. 2003 Milan (Italy) Round-table discussion 1: Climate change, adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development Round-table discussion 2: Technology, including technology use and development and the transfer of technologies Round-table discussion 3: Assessment of progress at the national, regional and international levels to fulfill the promise and objective enshrined in the climate change agreements, including the scientific, information, policy and financial aspects COP 10 6-17 Nov. 2004 Discussions at COP 10 highlighted a range of climate-related issues including, the impacts of climate change and adaptation measures, mitigation policies and their impacts, and technology. Participants had also taken stock of the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol COP 11 28 Nov.– 9 Dec. 2005 Montréal (Canada) The Kyoto Protocol has been switched on, a dialogue about the future action has begun, parties have moved forward work on adaptation and advanced the implementation of the regular work programme of the Convention and of the Protocol COP 12 6-17 Nov. 2006 Nairobi (Kenya) Report of the co-facilitators of the dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention COP 13 3-14 Dec. 2007 Bali (Indonesia) Bali Road Map (four pillars : mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology transfer) Setting up AWG-LCA and AWG-KP

Technological partnerships Asia-Pacific Partnership General climate policy Technological partnerships Asia-Pacific Partnership EU with India and China CCS: CSLF (Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum), ZEP (European initiative on zero emission platform) Nuclear: Generation IV initiative gathering 10 countries over 4 continents and INPRO

General climate policy ETS around the world

Long negotiation process General climate policy Key messages Long negotiation process Apart from the EU-27 other national and regional initiatives are present: Linking of the markets essential Technology partnerships as first step to techology distribution

Climate friendly technologies Identify technologies Abatement costs Abatement volumes Try to explore “unusual” solutions

Climate friendly technologies Demand side

Climate friendly technologies Supply side

Climate friendly technologies Key messages There is a huge portfolio of technologies at demand and supply side that have the potential to reach deep cuts in GHG emissions; Technology must be accompanied by life style changes; All these technologies must be accessible without exclusion; Electricity is the only energy vector that can be further decarbonised in the foreseeable future through a range of technologies and offers the prospect of low carbon road transport through the hybrid and electric vehicle and of contributing to low carbon heating through heat pump systems. Technology diffusion will not come by itself, there is a need for a whole range of policy measures including education and information, providing a long term price signal for GHG emissions, efficiency standards, R&D, incentives and support schemes;

Pathway to a climate friendly Europe needed investments attractivity/risk of investments, energy mix, connected emissions, costs for the public (Stern report),

Mainly electricity sector and transport considered Pathway to a climate friendly Europe Mainly electricity sector and transport considered

Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions & Recommendations Conclusions and recommendations We need a global price on CO2 emissions We need more support for climate friendly technologies Investments are key – longer horizons needed Re-balancing necessary: Security of supply and Affordable energy

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