Grande Prairie Economic & Housing Market Review & Forecast Richard Goatcher Economic Analyst CHBA – Alberta

Alberta Net Migration total net migration - quarterly Source: Statistics Canada

Alberta Total Net Migration Quarterly year-over-year net change Source: Statistics Canada

Alberta - Total Net Migration net migration - annual Source: Statistics Canada, Forecast: CHBA-AB

Labour Force vs. Employment Alberta (thousands – seasonally unadjusted) Dec data Source: Statistics Canada

number of persons employed (,000s – 3MMA) Employment Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House & Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River number of persons employed (,000s – 3MMA) May data Source: Statistics Canada

Annual Average Employment Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House & Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River number of persons employed (,000s) Source: Statistics Canada

Unemployment Rates % May data Source: Statistics Canada

Five-year Mortgage Rate Monthly average per cent (conventional/posted) Source: Statistics Canada (Bank of Canada)

Alberta Inflation Rate CPI – y/yr % chg Nov. data Source: Statistics Canada

Alberta (Seasonally adjusted) Avg. Weekly Earnings Alberta (Seasonally adjusted) Source: Statistics Canada

Retail Sales Alberta seasonally adjusted (x 1,000) Oct. data Source: Statistics Canada

Energy and Petroleum Products Price Index 2010 = 100 StatCan’s Industrial product price indexes, by major commodity aggregations - charted to Oct. Energy and petroleum products – includes crude oil, bitumen, nat. gas & nat. gas liquids & related products. Worst performance since the 2008 recession. Actual data to Oct. 2015 – Nov an estimate. Source: Statistics Canada

International Exports from Alta ($ Millions) Oct. data Source: Statistics Canada

International Exports from Alta Forestry Products ($ Millions) 3 mon. mvg. avg. Oct. 2015 data Source: Statistics Canada

Softwood Lumber Production - Alta (cubic metres x 1,000) 3 mon. mvg. avg. Sept 2015 data Source: Statistics Canada

Farm Product Prices Alta Livestock $/100 wt Source: Statistics Canada

Farm Product Prices Alberta $/metric tonne Source: Statistics Canada Sept. 2015 data Source: Statistics Canada

about their current financial situation Percentage of Canadians who feel positive about their current financial situation Released Jan. 5th, based on December 2015/2014 surveys. So, this is how folks were thinking at the end of the prior year. Albertans have gone from being the most confident at the end of 2014 to the least confident a year later. However, 60% of Albertans remain confident despite 18 months of doom and gloom from the sky-is-falling media talking heads. Source: CIBC / Angus Reid

Value of New Residential Investment Alberta - Current Prices 6 month moving average (x $1,000) Oct. 2015 data Source: Statistics Canada

Building Permit Values ($000) Alberta Nov. data Oct. permits soar as builders get plans registered before the Nov. 1 commencement of the new building code. Source: Statistics Canada

Alberta Housing Starts Urban Centres units (,000s) Dec. data Source: CMHC

Total Housing Starts Alberta – All Areas units (annual) Source: CMHC, Forecast: CHBA-AB

Total Housing Starts Grande Prairie units (annual) Source: CMHC

Single-detached Housing Starts Grande Prairie units Source: CMHC

Single-detached Housing Starts Grande Prairie units (annual) Source: CMHC

Semi-detached Housing Starts Grande Prairie units (annual) Source: CMHC

Unabsorbed New Home Inventory Single & Semi-detached - Homeowner & Condo units (completed & unoccupied) Dec. 2015 data Source: CMHC

Avg. Single-detached Absorbed Price Grande Prairie CA 6 month moving average Nov. data Source: CMHC

Grande Prairie CA - Single-detached Units Absorptions by $ Range share of market Jan-Sept. data for 2015 ($,000) Source: CMHC

Multi-family Housing Starts Grande Prairie CA units (annual) Source: CMHC

Unabsorbed New Home Inventory Row & Apartment - Homeowner & condo units (completed & unoccupied) Dec 2015 data Source: CMHC

Residential MLS® Sales Alberta SAAR units - 3 month moving avg. Nov. data Source: CREA

Residential MLS® Average Sale Price Alberta 3 month moving average Nov. data Source: CREA

Residential MLS® Sales Grande Prairie units Source: CREA

Residential MLS® Sales Grande Prairie units (annual) Last year’s activity (2394 units) not much below the average for the previous 10 years - 2,473 units Source: CREA

MLS® Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio Grande Prairie Region 3-month moving avg. Source: GPREB

Residential MLS® Average Sale Price Grande Prairie 6 month moving average Source: CREA

Residential MLS® Average Sale Price Grande Prairie annual Source: CREA

Apartment Vacancy Rate Alberta Cities 10,000+ per cent (October surveys) Source: CMHC

Apartment Vacancy Rate Grande Prairie CA per cent (October surveys) Source: CMHC

Average Rent Alberta Cities 10,000+ two-bedroom apartment Source: CMHC (October surveys)

Average Rent Grande Prairie CA two-bedroom apartment Source: CMHC (October surveys)

Grande Prairie Outlook for 2016 For Discussion Grande Prairie Outlook for 2016 Upside Mortgage rates to remain “affordable.” New home inventory appears manageable. New activist gov’ts in Edmonton & Ottawa will spend on infrastructure. Inflation remains “benign”(for now). Forestry & agriculture sectors holding up. Low C$ helping exports to US. Offshore investors see bargains & safe havens in Canadian RE. Downside Reduced migration from the ROC. Spending cuts in the energy sector will hamper job creation. Resale home market favours buyer. Tighter credit conditions as mortgage arrears increase. Rental markets have softened. Uncertainly over royalty reviews & carbon taxes (activist gov’t). Consumer confidence eroded. Falling C$ causing price pressures. Rising IR’s in US putting upward pressure on fixed-rate mortgages here.

Grande Prairie Housing Review Richard Goatcher Economic Analyst CHBA - Alberta richard.goatcher@chbaalberta.ca 778.269.4148